FREE Forex Signals Pro 96.7% Win Rate - FxLifeStyle ...

Free Forex Signals | Best Forex Signals 2020 | Weekly Forex Forecast GBPAUD

Free Forex Signals | Best Forex Signals 2020 | Weekly Forex Forecast GBPAUD submitted by fxace to u/fxace [link] [comments]

Logic and probability theory are the two basic ingredients that are useful for the price consolidation forecasting at Forex. If you want to utilize all the features of the best and free online investment analyzer, come to http://dominion24.esy.es/register-for-webinar/.

Logic and probability theory are the two basic ingredients that are useful for the price consolidation forecasting at Forex. If you want to utilize all the features of the best and free online investment analyzer, come to http://dominion24.esy.es/register-for-webina. submitted by edithadhanushya to u/edithadhanushya [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: News trading and second order thinking part 2/2

Former investment bank FX trader: News trading and second order thinking part 2/2
Thanks for all the upvotes and comments on the previous pieces:
From the first half of the news trading note we learned some ways to estimate what is priced in by the market. We learned that we are trading any gap in market expectations rather than the result itself. A good result when the market expected a fantastic result is disappointing! We also looked at second order thinking. After all that, I hope the reaction of prices to events is starting to make more sense to you.

Before you understand the core concepts of pricing in and second order thinking, price reactions to events can seem mystifying at times
We'll add one thought-provoking quote. Keynes (that rare economist who also managed institutional money) offered this analogy. He compared selecting investments to a beauty contest in which newspaper readers would write in with their votes and win a prize if their votes most closely matched the six most popularly selected women across all readers:
It is not a case of choosing those (faces) which, to the best of one’s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those which average opinions genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.
Trading is no different. You are trying to anticipate how other traders will react to news and how that will move prices. Perhaps you disagree with their reaction. Still, if you can anticipate what it will be you would be sensible to act upon it. Don't forget: meanwhile they are also trying to anticipate what you and everyone else will do.

Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The trimming position effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases

Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases

The majority of releases are quantitative. All that means is there’s some number. Like unemployment figures or GDP.
Historic results provide interesting context. We are looking below the Australian unemployment rate which is released monthly. If you plot it out a few years back you can spot a clear trend, which got massively reversed. Knowing this trend gives you additional information when the figure is released. In the same way prices can trend so do economic data.

A great resource that's totally free to use
This makes sense: if for example things are getting steadily better in the economy you’d expect to see unemployment steadily going down.
Knowing the trend and how much noise there is in the data gives you an informational edge over lazy traders.
For example, when we see the spike above 6% on the above you’d instantly know it was crazy and a huge trading opportunity since a) the fluctuations month on month are normally tiny and b) it is a huge reversal of the long-term trend.
Would all the other AUDUSD traders know and react proportionately? If not and yet they still trade, their laziness may be an opportunity for more informed traders to make some money.
Tradingeconomics.com offers really high quality analysis. You can see all the major indicators for each country. Clicking them brings up their history as well as an explanation of what they show.
For example, here’s German Consumer Confidence.

Helpful context
There are also qualitative events. Normally these are speeches by Central Bankers.
There are whole blogs dedicated to closely reading such texts and looking for subtle changes in direction or opinion on the economy. Stuff like how often does the phrase "in a good place" come up when the Chair of the Fed speaks. It is pretty dry stuff. Yet these are leading indicators of how each member may vote to set interest rates. Ed Yardeni is the go-to guy on central banks.

Data surprise index

The other thing you might look at is something investment banks produce for their customers. A data surprise index. I am not sure if these are available in retail land - there's no reason they shouldn't be but the economic calendars online are very basic.
You’ll remember we talked about data not being good or bad of itself but good or bad relative to what was expected. These indices measure this difference.
If results are consistently better than analysts expect then you’ll see a positive number. If they are consistently worse than analysts expect a negative number. You can see they tend to swing from positive to negative.

Mean reversion at its best! Data surprise indices measure how much better or worse data came in vs forecast
There are many theories for this but in general people consider that analysts herd around the consensus. They are scared to be outliers and look ‘wrong’ or ‘stupid’ so they instead place estimates close to the pack of their peers.
When economic conditions change they may therefore be slow to update. When they are wrong consistently - say too bearish - they eventually flip the other way and become too bullish.
These charts can be interesting to give you an idea of how the recent data releases have been versus market expectations. You may try to spot the turning points in macroeconomic data that drive long term currency prices and trends.

Using recent events to predict future reactions

The market reaction function is the most important thing on an economic calendar in many ways. It means: what will happen to the price if the data is better or worse than the market expects?
That seems easy to answer but it is not.
Consider the example of consumer confidence we had earlier.
  • Many times the market will shrug and ignore it.
  • But when the economic recovery is predicated on a strong consumer it may move markets a lot.
Or consider the S&P index of US stocks (Wall Street).
  • If you get good economic data that beats analyst estimates surely it should go up? Well, sometimes that is certainly the case.
  • But good economic data might result in the US Central Bank raising interest rates. Raising interest rates will generally make the stock market go down!
So better than expected data could make the S&P go up (“the economy is great”) or down (“the Fed is more likely to raise rates”). It depends. The market can interpret the same data totally differently at different times.
One clue is to look at what happened to the price of risk assets at the last event.
For example, let’s say we looked at unemployment and it came in a lot worse than forecast last month. What happened to the S&P back then?

2% drop last time on a 'worse than expected' number ... so it it is 'better than expected' best guess is we rally 2% higher
So this tells us that - at least for our most recent event - the S&P moved 2% lower on a far worse than expected number. This gives us some guidance as to what it might do next time and the direction. Bad number = lower S&P. For a huge surprise 2% is the size of move we’d expect.
Again - this is a real limitation of online calendars. They should show next to the historic results (expected/actual) the reaction of various instruments.

Buy the rumour, sell the fact

A final example of an unpredictable reaction relates to the old rule of ‘Buy the rumour, sell the fact.’ This captures the tendency for markets to anticipate events and then reverse when they occur.

Buy the rumour, sell the fact
In short: people take profit and close their positions when what they expected to happen is confirmed.
So we have to decide which driver is most important to the market at any point in time. You obviously cannot ask every participant. The best way to do it is to look at what happened recently. Look at the price action during recent releases and you will get a feel for how much the market moves and in which direction.

Trimming or taking off positions

One thing to note is that events sometimes give smart participants information about positioning. This is because many traders take off or reduce positions ahead of big news events for risk management purposes.
Imagine we see GBPUSD rises in the hour before GDP release. That probably indicates the market is short and has taken off / flattened its positions.

The price action before an event can tell you about speculative positioning
If GDP is merely in line with expectations those same people are likely to add back their positions. They avoided a potential banana skin. This is why sometimes the market moves on an event that seemingly was bang on consensus.
But you have learned something. The speculative market is short and may prove vulnerable to a squeeze.

Two kinds of reversals

Fairly often you’ll see the market move in one direction on a release then turn around and go the other way.
These are known as reversals. Traders will often ‘fade’ a move, meaning bet against it and expect it to reverse.

Logical reversals

Sometimes this happens when the data looks good at first glance but the details don’t support it.
For example, say the headline is very bullish on German manufacturing numbers but then a minute later it becomes clear the company who releases the data has changed methodology or believes the number is driven by a one-off event. Or maybe the headline number is positive but buried in the detail there is a very negative revision to previous numbers.
Fading the initial spike is one way to trade news. Try looking at what the price action is one minute after the event and thirty minutes afterwards on historic releases.

Crazy reversals


Some reversals don't make sense
Sometimes a reversal happens for seemingly no fundamental reason. Say you get clearly positive news that is better than anyone expects. There are no caveats to the positive number. Yet the price briefly spikes up and then falls hard. What on earth?
This is a pure supply and demand thing. Even on bullish news the market cannot sustain a rally. The market is telling you it wants to sell this asset. Try not to get in its way.

Some key releases

As we have already discussed, different releases are important at different times. However, we’ll look at some consistently important ones in this final section.

Interest rates decisions

These can sometimes be unscheduled. However, normally the decisions are announced monthly. The exact process varies for each central bank. Typically there’s a headline decision e.g. maintain 0.75% rate.
You may also see “minutes” of the meeting in which the decision was reached and a vote tally e.g. 7 for maintain, 2 for lower rates. These are always top-tier data releases and have capacity to move the currency a lot.
A hawkish central bank (higher rates) will tend to move a currency higher whilst a dovish central bank (lower rates) will tend to move a currency lower.
A central banker speaking is always a big event

Non farm payrolls

These are released once per month. This is another top-tier release that will move all USD pairs as well as equities.
There are three numbers:
  • The headline number of jobs created (bigger is better)
  • The unemployment rate (smaller is better)
  • Average hourly earnings (depends)
Bear in mind these headline numbers are often off by around 75,000. If a report comes in +/- 25,000 of the forecast, that is probably a non event.
In general a positive response should move the USD higher but check recent price action.
Other countries each have their own unemployment data releases but this is the single most important release.

Surveys

There are various types of surveys: consumer confidence; house price expectations; purchasing managers index etc.
Each one basically asks a group of people if they expect to make more purchases or activity in their area of expertise to rise. There are so many we won’t go into each one here.
A really useful tool is the tradingeconomics.com economic indicators for each country. You can see all the major indicators and an explanation of each plus the historic results.

GDP

Gross Domestic Product is another big release. It is a measure of how much a country’s economy is growing.
In general the market focuses more on ‘advance’ GDP forecasts more than ‘final’ numbers, which are often released at the same time.
This is because the final figures are accurate but by the time they come around the market has already seen all the inputs. The advance figure tends to be less accurate but incorporates new information that the market may not have known before the release.
In general a strong GDP number is good for the domestic currency.

Inflation

Countries tend to release measures of inflation (increase in prices) each month. These releases are important mainly because they may influence the future decisions of the central bank, when setting the interest rate.
See the FX fundamentals section for more details.

Industrial data

Things like factory orders or or inventory levels. These can provide a leading indicator of the strength of the economy.
These numbers can be extremely volatile. This is because a one-off large order can drive the numbers well outside usual levels.
Pay careful attention to previous releases so you have a sense of how noisy each release is and what kind of moves might be expected.

Comments

Often there is really good stuff in the comments/replies. Check out 'squitstoomuch' for some excellent observations on why some news sources are noisy but early (think: Twitter, ZeroHedge). The Softbank story is a good recent example: was in ZeroHedge a day before the FT but the market moved on the FT. Also an interesting comment on mistakes, which definitely happen on breaking news, and can cause massive reversals.

submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

List of 110+ Free Udemy & Popular Discounted : ETL & Data Integration Masterclass, HTML, JavaScript, & Bootstrap, Marketing Analytics, Microsoft Excel, Machine Learning, Android App Developer, React JS - A Complete Guide for Frontend Web Development, Python, Tableau, Instructional Design & Many More

ETL & Data Integration Masterclass, HTML, JavaScript, & Bootstrap, Marketing Analytics, Microsoft Excel, Machine Learning, Android App Developer, React JS - A Complete Guide for Frontend Web Development, Python, Tableau, Instructional Design & Many More
Source: Freebies Global - https://freebiesglobal.com/
  1. [English] 6h 24m HTML, JavaScript, & Bootstrap - Certification Course https://www.udemy.com/course/html-javascript-bootstrap-certification-course/?couponCode=YOUACCELOCT26 2 Days left at this price!
  2. [English] 0h 37m Quick Guide: Setup a Local Testing Server using WAMP or MAMP https://www.udemy.com/course/quick-guide-setup-a-local-testing-server-using-wamp-or-mamp/?couponCode=YOUACCELOCT26 2 Days left at this price!
  3. [English] 1h 27m Learn MySQL - For Beginners https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-mysql-for-beginners/?couponCode=YOUACCELOCT26 2 Days left at this price!
  4. [English] 1h 28m Learn JavaScript - For Beginners https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-javascript-for-beginners-v/?couponCode=YOUACCELOCT26 2 Days left at this price!
  5. [English] 1h 47m Learn PHP - For Beginners https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-php-for-beginners-n/?couponCode=YOUACCELOCT26 2 Days left at this price!
  6. [English] 5h 57m JavaScript, Bootstrap, & PHP - Certification for Beginners https://www.udemy.com/course/javascript-bootstrap-php-certification-for-beginners/?couponCode=YOUACCELOCT26 2 Days left at this price!
  7. [English] 2h 23m Learn XML-AJAX - For Beginners https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-xml-ajax-for-beginners/?couponCode=YOUACCELOCT26 2 Days left at this price!
  8. [English] 2h 45m Learn Bootstrap - For Beginners https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-bootstrap-for-beginners/?couponCode=YOUACCELOCT26 2 Days left at this price!
  9. [English] 1h 15m Learn jQuery - For Beginners https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-jquery-for-beginners/?couponCode=YOUACCELOCT26 2 Days left at this price!
  10. [English] 3h 9m CSS & JavaScript - Certification Course for Beginners https://www.udemy.com/course/css-javascript-certification-course-for-beginners/?couponCode=YOUACCELOCT26 2 Days left at this price!
  11. [English] 6h 2m Ultimate AWS Certified Alexa Skill Builder Specialty 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/ultimate-aws-certified-alexa-skill-builder-specialty/?couponCode=20F2F1085B9FE981B09C 2 Days left at this price!
  12. [English] 9h 13m Pentaho for ETL & Data Integration Masterclass 2020- PDI 9.0 https://www.udemy.com/course/pentaho-for-etl-data-integration-masterclass/?couponCode=OCTXXVI20 1 Day left at this price!
  13. [English] 34h 56m Machine Learning & Deep Learning in Python & R https://www.udemy.com/course/data_science_a_to_z/?couponCode=OCTXXVI20 1 Day left at this price!
  14. [English] 0h 52m Public Speaking: A tactical approach https://www.udemy.com/course/publicspeakingtactics/?couponCode=9546D2A90B72DB31BF85 2 Days left at this price!
  15. [Spanish] 8h 22m Introducción a Adobe Photoshop CC 2020 (Actualizado) https://www.udemy.com/course/introduccion-a-adobe-photoshop-cc-2020-actualizado/?couponCode=GRATIS-CAPDESIS 2 Days left at this price!
  16. [English] 3h 36m The Complete React JS Course - Basics to Advanced https://www.udemy.com/course/react-js-basics-to-advanced/?couponCode=FREEOCTOBER 2 Days left at this price!
  17. [English] 0h 48m Develop Your Listening Skills to Shine at Work and in Life https://www.udemy.com/course/develop-your-listening-skills-to-shine-at-work-and-in-life/?couponCode=86E39195E8A8084CE232 1 Day left at this price!
  18. [Spanish] 11h 40m Curso Excel y Power BI – Análisis y Visualización de Datos https://www.udemy.com/course/curso-tutorial-aprender-como-usar-power-bi-excel-ejercicios-practicos/?couponCode=OCT20-1 2 Days left at this price!
  19. [English] 1h 28m Learn! Modern JavaScript for React JS - ES6 https://www.udemy.com/course/modern-javascript-es6-for-react-js/?couponCode=FREEOCTOBER 2 Days left at this price!
  20. [English] 2h 5m The Obvious Secrets To Success No One Knows https://www.udemy.com/course/success-secrets-coach/?couponCode=TOSTSNEXPOCT292020 2 Days left at this price!
  21. [English] 2h 21m EQ-2 Resilience and Mental Strength - Emotional Intelligence https://www.udemy.com/course/resiliance-emotional-intelligence/?couponCode=EQRMSEXPOCT292020 2 Days left at this price!
  22. [English] 5h 37m Marketing Analytics: Pricing Strategies and Price Analytics https://www.udemy.com/course/marketing-analytics-pricing-strategies-and-price-analytics/?couponCode=OCTXXVI20 1 Day left at this price!
  23. [German ] 2h 52m Werde ein Menschen-Magnet - Die Charisma-Formel https://www.udemy.com/course/werde-ein-menschen-magnet-die-charisma-formel/?couponCode=CHARISTART 2 Days left at this price!
  24. [English] 12h 46m Complete Machine Learning with R Studio - ML for 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/machine-learning-with-r-studio/?couponCode=OCTXXVI20 1 Day left at this price!
  25. [English] 7h 7m Marketing Analytics: Forecasting Models with Excel https://www.udemy.com/course/marketing-analytics-forecasting-models-with-excel/?couponCode=OCTXXVI20 1 Day left at this price!
  26. [English] 7h 57m Learn! Python from scratch - Basics to Advanced https://www.udemy.com/course/python-programming-beginner-to-advanced/?couponCode=FREEOCTOBER 2 Days left at this price!
  27. [English] 2h 30m Youtube & Instagram Video Production + Editing Bootcamp 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/youtube-video-production-bootcamp-2018/?couponCode=PUMPKIN 2 Days left at this price!
  28. [English] 0h 32m GDPR and Data Protection Compliance for Beginners https://www.udemy.com/course/gdpr-and-data-protection-compliance-for-beginners/?couponCode=GDPRFREE 2 Days left at this price!
  29. [English] 1h 57m Machine learning & AI Hands on 3 Projects. https://www.udemy.com/course/machine-learning-and-ai-with-hands-on-projects/?couponCode=FREEOCTOBER 2 Days left at this price!
  30. [English] 6h 49m Machine Learning - Step by Step (2020) https://www.udemy.com/course/step-by-step-guide-to-machine-learning-course/?couponCode=FREEOCTOBER 2 Days left at this price!
  31. [English] 4h 7m Step by step guide to be an Android App Developer https://www.udemy.com/course/a-beginners-guide-to-android-app-development/?couponCode=FREEOCTOBER 2 Days left at this price!
  32. [English] 3h 32m HTML5 - Basics to Advanced with hands-on projects. https://www.udemy.com/course/html-basic-to-advanced/?couponCode=FREEOCTOBER 2 Days left at this price!
  33. [English] 9h 59m Step by Step Guide for Javascript - Basics to Advanced https://www.udemy.com/course/javascript-basics-to-advanced/?couponCode=FREEOCTOBER 2 Days left at this price!
  34. [English] 21h 57m React JS - A Complete Guide for Frontend Web Development https://www.udemy.com/course/react-js-a-complete-guide-for-frontend-web-development/?couponCode=FREEOCTOBER 2 Days left at this price!
  35. [English] 2h 36m EMDR Therapy For PTSD Post Traumatic Stress Disorder https://www.udemy.com/course/certificate-in-ptsd-symptom-relief-through-emdr-therapy/?couponCode=1CE6BA95EB2043A8612C 2 Days left at this price!
  36. [English] 2h 21m Unblock Chakras, Cleanse Aura, Chromotherapy Color Therapy https://www.udemy.com/course/color-therapy-certification-improve-your-life-through-colo?couponCode=81E73256860229CAAF0E 2 Days left at this price!
  37. [English] 2h 59m How To Declutter Your Home With Before After Video Included https://www.udemy.com/course/declutter-and-organize-for-better-home-and-less-stress/?couponCode=B73EF8EC273534ED7BC4 2 Days left at this price!
  38. [English] 1h 14m Nursing Professionals Get Motivated! Motivation For Nurses https://www.udemy.com/course/motivation-for-nurses-30-days-of-praise-for-nurses/?couponCode=334FEE6E04DCBEF2182D 2 Days left at this price!
  39. [English] 1h 12m Canva T-Shirt Design Course Create Stunning Graphics Today! https://www.udemy.com/course/canva-t-shirt-design-course-create-stunning-graphics-today/?couponCode=CHRISTMAS_CAME_EARLY 2 Days left at this price!
  40. [English] 0h 31m Fundamentals of Network Security https://www.udemy.com/course/fundamentals-of-network-security-b/?couponCode=HARISH_INDIA 2 Days left at this price!
  41. [English] 1h 14m Sell Photo Online: Beginners Guide Stock Photography https://www.udemy.com/course/mastering-stock-photography-step-by-step-guideline/?couponCode=STOCKOCT2020F3 2 Days left at this price!
  42. [English] 6h 5m Tableau 2020 Training for Data Science & Business Analytics https://www.udemy.com/course/tableau-for-data-science-and-business-analytics/?couponCode=FB27OCT2020 2 Days left at this price!
  43. [English] 11h 46m Futures Trading Ninja: DIY 12Hour TOP-NOTCH Trading Strategy https://www.udemy.com/course/futures-trading/?couponCode=1OCT20 2 Days left at this price!
  44. [Spanish] 5h 35m Google Adsense. 99 Secretos que Internet No te Enseña. 2020. https://www.udemy.com/course/google-adsense-gana-dinero-achirou-alvaro-chirou-pablo-munoz/?couponCode=TWITCH 2 Days left at this price!
  45. [English] 7h 0m CNN for Computer Vision with Keras and TensorFlow in Python https://www.udemy.com/course/cnn-for-computer-vision-with-keras-and-tensorflow-in-python/?couponCode=OCTXXVI20 1 Day left at this price!
  46. [English] 6h 29m HR Analytics Course with R https://www.udemy.com/course/hr-analytics-course-with-?couponCode=ANALYTICS27 2 Days left at this price!
  47. [English] 6h 59m Instructional Design Course: All Levels Beginner to Advanced https://www.udemy.com/course/instructional-design-course/?couponCode=DESIGN27 2 Days left at this price!
  48. [English] 0h 58m Motion Graphics: Make Liquid Motion Effects in After Effects https://www.udemy.com/course/motion-graphics-liquid-motion-effects-in-after-effects/?couponCode=UD1FREE201026 1 Day left at this price!
  49. [English] 4h 31m Learn Excel from beginner to advance with Example https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-excel-from-beginner-to-advance-with-example/?couponCode=FREE50 2 Days left at this price!
  50. [English] 1h 39m Mastering Deno.js: Beginner to Expert [2020] https://www.udemy.com/course/mastering-denojs-beginner-to-expert/?couponCode=OCTOBERSALE 1 Day left at this price!
  51. [English] 0h 41m Public Speaking for Beginners https://www.udemy.com/course/public-speaking-for-beginners-al/?couponCode=2979E8D97444605D7156 2 Days left at this price!
  52. [English] 0h 58m Presentation Skills: Give a Great New Business Pitch https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-give-a-new-business-pitch-presentation/?couponCode=74EFB7D6C2FB1A0D9B1E 2 Days left at this price!
  53. [English] 0h 51m Journalism: Conduct Great Media Interviews https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-conduct-interviews/?couponCode=C84C17A28AE58CBD454E 2 Days left at this price!
  54. [English] 1h 7m Sales Skills Training: Give a Winning Sales Presentation https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-give-a-sales-presentation/?couponCode=60C26DD7117AF1729851 2 Days left at this price!
  55. [English] 1h 40m Public Speaking: You Can Give Great Financial Presentations https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-give-financial-presentations/?couponCode=2CDEE253D2739633312E 2 Days left at this price!
  56. [English] 2h 59 The Complete Motivation Course: Motivation for Your Success https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-motivation-course-motivation-for-your-success/?couponCode=9960F956CB6AA19CF809 2 Days left at this price!
  57. [English] 1h 24m The Complete Google Forms Course - Sending & Analyzing Forms https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-google-forms-course-sending-analyzing-forms/?couponCode=2076C8A7ADCBD6DBDE99 2 Days left at this price!
  58. [English] 4h 54m Master Django by Building Complete RESTful API Project https://www.udemy.com/course/master-django-by-building-complete-restful-api-project/?couponCode=OCTOBERSALE 1 Day left at this price!
  59. [English] 9h 18m Complete Adobe Premiere Pro CC Course - Beginner to Advanced https://www.udemy.com/course/adobepremiereprocccourse/?couponCode=FREEADOBE 2 Days left at this price!
  60. [Spanish] 1h 18m Comienza con R ¡Añade valor a tu CV en 2 horas! https://www.udemy.com/course/el-arte-de-programar-en-r-anade-valor-a-tu-cv/?couponCode=B90E90DE425C8BAC6D10 2 Days left at this price!
  61. [Spanish] 1h 15m Aprende SQL desde cero: ¡Curso con mas de 50 ejercicios! 1 https://www.udemy.com/course/aprende-sql-desde-cero-curso-con-mas-de-50-ejercicios/?couponCode=9497A0979D086BC59ACA 2 Days left at this price!
  62. [Spanish] 1h 41m Tableau: Crea un impacto con la información https://www.udemy.com/course/tableau-10-desde-cero/?couponCode=0B9A15DAABECEF4283E3 2 Days left at this price!
  63. [Spanish] 1h 4m Microsoft Excel - Análisis de datos con tablas dinámicas https://www.udemy.com/course/microsoft-excel-analisis-de-datos-con-tablas-dinamicas/?couponCode=E132A1381313060EADBA 2 Days left at this price!
  64. [Spanish] 1h 47m SQL: Creación de Bases de Datos (De cero a profesional) https://www.udemy.com/course/sql-creacion-de-bd/?couponCode=4C2909E4D310F1B4FA41 2 Days left at this price!
  65. [Arabic] 0h 43m YouTube SEO mini course (Get more views) in Arabic https://www.udemy.com/course/youtube-seo-mini-course/?couponCode=B9CB7555A84C81E259A6 2 Days left at this price!
  66. [English] 4h 48m Microsoft Excel - Learn MS EXCEL For DATA Analysis https://www.udemy.com/course/microsoft-excel-learn-ms-excel-for-data-analysis/?couponCode=23966F2BE2A43C33E5ED 2 Days left at this price!
  67. [English] 0h 33m 30 Days Challenge for a Better Time Management https://www.udemy.com/course/30-days-challenge-for-a-better-time-management/?couponCode=TMFREE 2 Days left at this price!
  68. [English] 2h 15m Outsource Mastery: How To Earn More Money By Doing Less Work https://www.udemy.com/course/outsource-mastery/?couponCode=OCTFREEOUTSOURCE 2 Days left at this price!
  69. [English] 4h 44m Microsoft Excel: Beginner to Data Analysis and Dashboards https://www.udemy.com/course/getting-started-with-microsoft-excel/?couponCode=4471C851C1F635EA50B6 2 Days left at this price!
  70. [English] 1h 55m Machine Learning & Data Science Foundations Masterclass https://www.udemy.com/course/machine-learning-data-science-foundations-masterclass/?couponCode=CLUB11 2 Days left at this price!
  71. [English] 1h 26m Public Speaking: You Can Speak to Large Audiences https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-speak-to-large-audiences/?couponCode=D862393E365C81A88F76 2 Days left at this price!
  72. [English] 1h 12m Online Course Creation: Complete Course of Blunders to Avoid https://www.udemy.com/course/online-course-creation-complete-course-of-blunders-to-avoid/?couponCode=795DDC3D62699701AA68 2 Days left at this price!
  73. [English] 1h 0m Basics Of Stop Motion Animation Using Canva And OpenShot https://www.udemy.com/course/basics-of-stop-motion-animation-using-canva-and-openshot/?couponCode=87D29D78BE69CC4A77E6 2 Days left at this price!
  74. [English] 1h 23m Basics Of Flat Design Illustrations In Canva https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-do-flat-design-for-social-media-marketing-in-canva/?couponCode=7C34A04E50CDC001F0FB 2 Days left at this price!
  75. [English] 1h 6m TEDx for NGOs, NonProfits & Volunteers https://www.udemy.com/course/tedx-nonprofit-org/?couponCode=TNNPVEXPOCT292020 2 Days left at this price!
  76. [English] 0h 49m Color Theory Basics: Learning Color Theory With Adobe Color https://www.udemy.com/course/color-theory-basics-learning-color-theory-with-adobe-colo?couponCode=6950A9D3ED98C8948A02 2 Days left at this price!
  77. [English] 3h 37m Intro To Basic Video Creation https://www.udemy.com/course/intro-to-basic-video-creation/?couponCode=2A0546CA0E43EEF9DFEC 2 Days left at this price!
  78. [English] 3h 19m Photo Editing With Free Software https://www.udemy.com/course/photo-editing-with-free-software/?couponCode=6A1829B7BD9A5CD55E4F 2 Days left at this price!
  79. [English] 2h 19m Introduction To The Basics Of Melt & Pour Soap https://www.udemy.com/course/introduction-to-the-basics-of-melt-pour-soap/?couponCode=1A40DBD5832B6B268670 2 Days left at this price!
  80. [English] 0h 57m Analyzing Self Storage Businesses for Maximum Profit https://www.udemy.com/course/self-storage-business/?couponCode=ASBMPEXPOCT292020 2 Days left at this price!
  81. [English] 1h 35m Affiliate Marketing Mastery (2021) - Beginner To Advanced https://www.udemy.com/course/affiliate-marketing-mastery-2021-beginner-to-advanced/?couponCode=MANISHMEHTA 2 Days left at this price!
  82. [English] 2h 59m Complete SQL Bootcamp with MySQL, PHP & Python https://www.udemy.com/course/complete-sql-bootcamp-with-mysql-php-python/?couponCode=SQLBOOTOCT2020F3 1 Day left at this price!
  83. [English] 0h 52m Data Analytics with Excel PivotTables https://www.udemy.com/course/data-analytics-with-excel-pivottables-2016/?couponCode=45D4278FB61058D3D9E4 1 Day left at this price!
  84. [English] 0h 52m Understanding HIPAA Compliance https://www.udemy.com/course/understanding-hipaa-compliance/?couponCode=B3F4C350DD6FB06C1225 1 Day left at this price!
  85. [English] 0h 34m Time Management for Professionals https://www.udemy.com/course/time-management-for-professionals/?couponCode=7E69781A8998EA9C8309 1 Day left at this price!
  86. [English] 9h 39m How to Write and Publish a Research Paper: Complete Guide https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-write-and-publish-a-research-paper-complete-guide/?couponCode=PAPER26 1 Day left at this price!
  87. [English] 4h 45m Grant Writing Full Course: Nonprofits, Artists & Freelancers https://www.udemy.com/course/grant-writing-course/?couponCode=GRANT26 1 Day left at this price!
  88. [English] 7h 8m Big Data on Amazon web services (AWS) https://www.udemy.com/course/big-data-on-amazon-web-services-aws-cloud-2018/?couponCode=BE8474FF563682A467C7 1 Day left at this price!
  89. [English] 2h 36m C Programming For Beginners -Build Bank ATM Machine Software https://www.udemy.com/course/c-programming-for-beginners-with-real-world-examples/?couponCode=19D2D84BB2687DF326BB 21 hrs left at this price!
  90. [English] 2h 42m SQL Injections Unlocked - SQLi Web Attacks https://www.udemy.com/course/sql-injections-unlocked-sqli-web-attacks/?couponCode=FOR-MY-HACKMATES 18 hrs left at this price!
  91. [English] 7h 4m Build 9 PIC Microcontroller Engineering projects today! https://www.udemy.com/course/pic-microcontroller-build-engineering-projects-today/?couponCode=STAYHOME1022020 21 hrs left at this price!
  92. [English] 1h 2m Arduino: Everything you need to Know https://www.udemy.com/course/arduino-for-newbies-crash-course/?couponCode=STAYHOME1022020 21 hrs left at this price!
  93. [English] 4h 24m The Complete Raspberry Pi Bootcamp https://www.udemy.com/course/raspberry-pi-complete-raspberrypi-bootcamp-python-raspberry-pi/?couponCode=STAYHOME1022020 21 hrs left at this price!
  94. [English] 0h 44m Arduino meets Python: Step by Step https://www.udemy.com/course/arduino-python-control-py-code-arduino-using-python-pip/?couponCode=STAYHOME1022020 21 hrs left at this price!
  95. [English] 1h 37m Sensors: Everything You Need To Know https://www.udemy.com/course/sensors-interfacing-sensor-wiring-sensor-temperature-humidity-sensors/?couponCode=STAYHOME1022020 21 hrs left at this price!
  96. [English] 1h 22m Arduino SMS Sending Motion Detector using Python https://www.udemy.com/course/arduino-sms-sending-motion-detector-using-python/?couponCode=STAYHOME1022020 21 hrs left at this price!
  97. [English] 2h 15m PIC Microcontrollers Timer and Watchdog Timer https://www.udemy.com/course/pic-microcontrollers-timer0-watchdog-timer-advance-picmicrocontrolle?couponCode=STAYHOME1022020 21 hrs left at this price!
  98. [English] 3h 47m Adobe Photoshop CC- Basic Photoshop training https://www.udemy.com/course/adobe-photoshop-cc-basic-photoshop-training/?couponCode=0210CF7D2FCCC0923A73 1 Day left at this price!
  99. [English] 0h 59m How to Make Passive Income With Bitcoin Lending https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-make-passive-income-with-bitcoin-lending/?couponCode=OCTTHW2020 1 Day left at this price!
  100. [English] 6h 35m YouTube 2020 Million+ Views: Increase Profits, Subs & Rank https://www.udemy.com/course/youtubehacks/?couponCode=FREEPASS0000 1 Day left at this price!
  101. [English] 1h 19m Gain Love Relationship Skills Life Coaching Course https://www.udemy.com/course/get-a-relationship-life-coaching-love-relationship-building/?couponCode=8488CEF063E042E4BD80 1 Day left at this price!
  102. [English] 4h 11m NodeJS for Absolute Beginners https://www.udemy.com/course/nodejs-for-absolute-beginners/?couponCode=E6BFBDF8BB87E36F792E 1 Day left at this price!
  103. [English] 2h 1m Educación Emocional para niños de 3 a 5 años https://www.udemy.com/course/educacion-emocional-para-ninos-de-3-a-5-anos/?couponCode=142522ECD9028DE90A66 1 Day left at this price!
  104. [Spanish] 0h 35m Sistema para Hotel con php y Mysql (2020) https://www.udemy.com/course/sistema-para-hotel-con-php-y-mysql-2020-a/?couponCode=ECFE213D6989C53B2971 1 Day left at this price!
  105. [English] 2h 10m Master the Art of CV Building, Cover Letter & Job Interview https://www.udemy.com/course/master-job-landing/?couponCode=I-TRULY-CARE 1 Day left at this price!
  106. [English] 7h 38m Accounting, Bookkeeping & Financial Statements: Zero to Pro https://www.udemy.com/course/accounting-for-entrepreneurs/?couponCode=3B3CFB3F58EF8A38BF7D 1 Day left at this price!
  107. [English] 4h 40m Facebook Ads - from Beginner to Pro https://www.udemy.com/course/facebook-advertisement-from-beginners-to-pro/?couponCode=FACEBOOK-ADS-FREE 19 hrs left at this price!
  108. [English] 9h 27m Python 3: From ZERO to GUI programming https://freebiesglobal.com/python-3-from-zero-to-gui-programming 18 hrs left at this price!
  109. [English] 4h 27m Vedic Math & Mental Math - MULTIPLICATION : Full Course https://www.udemy.com/course/vedic-math-mental-math-multiplication-full-course/?couponCode=F9BAC66EEF2DD829D3B5 1 Day left at this price!
  110. [English] 1h 18m Learn 23 Ways to Make Money Online with Your Smartphone! https://www.udemy.com/course/make-money-with-your-smartphone/?couponCode=9D54EE1B421C3B3AB3FB 1 Day left at this price!
  111. [English] 1h 0m The Smartphone Product Photography Course https://www.udemy.com/course/the-smartphone-product-photography-course/?couponCode=CA54DC4D6967F6BC73F9 1 Day left at this price!
  112. [English] 2h 47m The complete forex course from scratch to professional https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-forex-course-from-scratch-to-professional/?couponCode=78C5F0F6865B3E555A0C 1 Day left at this price!
  113. [English] 4h 42m Watercolor Painting Next Level Techniques and Effects https://www.udemy.com/course/watercolor-painting-next-level-techniques-effects/?couponCode=FREEWATERCOLORCOURSE 1 Day left at this price!
  114. [English] 4h 19m Python Learn by Python Projects & Python Quizzes in 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-python-for-beginner-master-python-from-scratch/?couponCode=00F0142C2B69AE9804EA 1 Day left at this price!
  115. [English] 5h 35m Excel Basics [2020] + Advanced in Ms Excel 2019 & Office 365 https://freebiesglobal.com/excel-basics-2020-advanced-in-ms-excel-2019-office-365 1 Day left at this price!
  116. [English] 10h 39m Lead Generation MASTERY with Facebook Lead & Messenger Ads https://www.udemy.com/course/facebook-lead-ads-course/?couponCode=LEADADS111 1 Day left at this price!
Popular & Best Udemy Courses from $9.99
  1. [English] 32h 33m Master JavaScript – The Most Compete JavaScript Course 2020 $11.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/master-javascript-the-most-compete-javascript-course-2020/?couponCode=LEARNOCT 3 Days left at this price!
  2. [English] 7h 53m Introduction to Cloud Computing on Amazon AWS for Beginners $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/introduction-to-cloud-computing-on-amazon-aws-for-beginners/?couponCode=AWSOCT 4 Days left at this price!
  3. [English] AWS Certified Cloud Practitioner 500 Practice Exam Questions $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/aws-certified-cloud-practitioner-practice-exams-c/?couponCode=AWSOCT 4 Days left at this price!
  4. [English] 34h 0m The Complete Train the Trainer Bootcamp - Beginners-Advanced $12.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-train-the-trainer-bootcamp-beginners-advanced/?couponCode=THANKS1 3 Days left at this price!
  5. [English] 26h 49m Leading Effective Meetings - You Can Lead Effective Meetings $12.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/leading-effective-meetings-you-can-lead-effective-meetings/?couponCode=THANKS2 3 Days left at this price!
  6. [English] 44h 40m SEO TRAINING 2021: Complete SEO Course + WordPress SEO Yoast $10.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/online-seo-training/?couponCode=2OCT999 4 Days left at this price!
  7. [English] 8h 9m Facebook Dynamic Ads (Facebook Dynamic Retargeting) MASTERY $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/facebook-dynamic-ads/?couponCode=OCT999 4 Days left at this price!
  8. [English] 56h 8m The Complete Digital Marketing Course for Local Businesses $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/local-digital-marketing/?couponCode=2OCT999 4 Days left at this price!
  9. [English] 29h 1m BEST of Facebook Ads: Facebook Ads 2021 ULTIMATE PRO Edition $13.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/facebook-ads-2021/?couponCode=OCT999 4 Days left at this price!
  10. [English] 39h 52m BEST of SEO: #1 SEO Training & Content Marketing Course 2021 $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/seo-training-2021/?couponCode=2OCT999 4 Days left at this price!
  11. [English] AWS Certified Developer Associate Practice Exam Questions $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/aws-developer-associate-practice-exams/?couponCode=AWSOCT 2 Days left at this price!
  12. [English] 29h 21m AWS Certified Developer Associate Exam Training 2020 [NEW] $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/aws-certified-developer-associate-exam-training/?couponCode=AWSOCT 2 Days left at this price!
  13. [English] 31h 16m The Agile Methodology for Project Risk Managers $12.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/the-agile-methodology-for-project-risk-managers/?couponCode=LEARN2020OCT 3 Days left at this price!
  14. [English] 37h 7m Risk Management for Business Analysts (PMI-RMP/IIBA-ECBA) $12.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/risk-management-for-business-analysts-pmi-rmpiiba-ecba/?couponCode=LEARN2020OCT 3 Days left at this price!
  15. [English] 42h 20m Project Management Professional Certification Program (PMP) $12.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/project-management-professional-certification-program-pmp/?couponCode=LEARN2020OCT 4 Days left at this price!
submitted by ViralMedia007 to FREECoursesEveryday [link] [comments]

Profitable Forex Strategy Reddit | 3 Easy Forex Strategies Easy For MT4

Profitable Forex Strategy Reddit | 3 Easy Forex Strategies Easy For MT4

The need for a trading strategy in Forex market

https://preview.redd.it/r6u8stdmeaw51.jpg?width=1320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1b0292502d6e68f5c220af5a5851aeb8061b395b
Almost all trading manuals talk about the need to have your own trading strategy. First of all, the process of creating your trading scheme allows you to perfectly understand trading and exclude from it any eventuality that hides additional risk.
Profitable forex strategy: it is a type of instruction for the trader, which helps to follow a clearly verified algorithm and safeguard his deposit from emotional errors and consequences of the unpredictability of the Forex currency market.
Thanks to her, you will always know the answer to the question: how to act in certain market conditions. You have the conditions of opening a transaction, the conditions of its closing, likewise, you do not guess if it is time or not. You do what the trading strategy tells you. This does not mean that it cannot be changed. A healthy trading scheme in the forex market must be constantly adjusted, it must comply with the realities of current market trends, but there must be no unfounded arguments in it.
>>> Forex Signals With Unbeatable Performance: Verified Forex Results And 5° Rated On Investing.com |Free Forex Signals Trial: CLICK HERE TO JOIN FOR FREE

Profitable Forex Strategy Reddit

Types of trading strategies
The forms of a trading strategy can combine a variety of methods. However, several of the most commonly used options can be highlighted.
  • Trading strategy based on various complementary technical indicators
  • Trading strategy using Bollinger Bands
  • Moving Average Strategy
  • Technical figures and patterns
  • Trading with Fibonacci levels
  • Candlestick trading strategy
  • Trend trading strategy
  • Flat trading strategy
  • Scalping
  • Fundamental analysis as the basis of the strategy

Three most profitable Forex strategies

Important! These strategies are the basis for building your own trading system. Indicator settings and recommended pending order levels are for consultation only. If you do not get a satisfactory outcome in the test result or in a live account, that does not mean that the problem is the strategy. It is enough to choose individual parameters of indicators under a separate asset and under the current market situation.

1. “Bali” scalping strategy

This strategy is one of the most popular, at least its description can be found on many websites. However, the recommendations will be different. According to the author's idea, "Bali" refers to scalping tactics, as it facilitates a fairly short stop loss (SL) and take profit (TP). However, the recommended time frame is high, because the signals appear not very often. The authors recommend using the H1 interval and the EUR / USD currency pair.
Indicators used:
  • Linear Weighted Moving Average. Period 48 (red line).
https://preview.redd.it/9mhs67mxeaw51.jpg?width=461&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=913d428edd4cab0a3237e7039829a76dd587f1f5
The weighted linear moving average here acts as an additional filter. Due to the fact that LWMA gives more weight to the values ​​of the last periods, the indicator in the long periods practically excludes delays. In some cases, LWMA can give a signal beforehand, but in this strategy only the moving position relative to price is important. Bearish LWMA is a buy signal, sell bullish.
  • Trend Envelopes_v2. Period 2 (orange and blue lines).
https://preview.redd.it/8bap0s41faw51.jpg?width=627&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a6236ad06765280bbfd655fa1fb4153b28aaaf56
The indicator is also based on the moving average, but the formula is slightly different for the calculation. Its marking is more precise (the impact of price noise has been eliminated). It allows you to identify the twists of the trend compared to the usual mobile with a slight anticipation. Trend Envelopes has an interesting property: the color of the line and its new location changes when the price penetrates its old trend line, a kind of signal.
  • DSS of momentum. The configuration in the screenshot below.
https://preview.redd.it/9ch27cj4faw51.jpg?width=630&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=00558bbd90378009bef33b7c96c77f884b912667
The indicator is placed in a separate window below the chart. This is an oscillator whose task is to determine the pivot points of the trend. And it does so much faster than standard oscillators. It has two lines: the signal is dotted, the additional line is solid, but the receiver has 2 kinds of colors (orange and green).
  • Important! Note that the indicators for the “Bali” strategy are chosen in such a way as to ultimately give an early signal. This gives the trader time to confirm the signal and check the fundamentals.
MA is one of the basics on MT4, the other two indicators can be found in the archive for free here. To add them to the platform, click on MT4: "File / Open data directory". In the folder that opens, follow the following path: MQL4 / Indicators. Copy the flags to the folder and restart the platform.
Also Read: Make Money With Trading
Conditions to open a long position:
  • Price penetrates the orange Trend Envelopes line from the bottom up. At the same time in the same candle there is a change of the orange line that falls to a growing celestial.
  • The candle is above LWMA. Once the above condition has been met, we wait for the candle to appear above the moving one. It is important that it closes above the LWMA red line. It is mandatory to have a Skyline Trend Envelopes on a signal candle.
  • The additional DSS of momentum line on the signal candle is green and is above the dotted line of the signal (that is, it crosses or crosses it).
We open a trade at the close of the signal candle. The recommended stop level is 20-25 points in 4-digit quotes, take profit at 40-50 points.
https://preview.redd.it/t48d55s8faw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1e93863745e74dec536178539817225767cbeb1c
The arrow indicates a signal candle where a Trend Envelopes color change occurred. Note (purple ovals) that the blue line is below the orange line and goes upwards (in other cases the signal should be ignored). In the signal candle, the green DSS of momentum line is above the dotted line.
Conditions to open a short position:
  • Price penetrates the Trend Envelopes sky line from top to bottom. At the same time in the same candle there is a change from the increasing celestial line to the falling orange.
  • The candle is below LWMA. Once the above condition has been met, we wait for the candle to appear below the mobile. It is important that it closes below the LWMA red line. It is mandatory to have an orange Trend Envelopes line on a signal candle.
  • The additional DSS of momentum line on the signal candle is orange and is below the dotted line of the signal (i.e. crosses or crosses it).
https://preview.redd.it/6uixkl1dfaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dd53442c633e80c1e55da72cd5ffe9cda2e85b8a
Some examples where a transaction cannot be opened:
  1. In the screenshot below the signal candle closed at the moving level (red line), it was practically below it.
https://preview.redd.it/2o1wpocgfaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=58d3286bf2884b5f0dfdaa0a62b68d2d50cdabf8
  1. In the screenshot below the signal candle is DSS below its signal line. Also, the celestial line is horizontal and not ascending.
https://preview.redd.it/1nfi1etjfaw51.jpg?width=801&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ff9fcbc10a485c5102ef7a135de47332827caf54
The signals are relatively rare, a signal can be expected for several days. In half the cases, it is better to control the transaction and close in advance, without waiting for profit taking. We do not operate at the time of flat. Try this strategy directly in the browser and see the result.
>>> Forex Signals With Unbeatable Performance: Verified Forex Results And 5° Rated On Investing.com |Free Forex Signals Trial: CLICK HERE TO JOIN FOR FREE

2. “Va-Bank” candle strategy

This profitable Forex strategy is weekly and can be used on different currency pairs. It is based on the spring principle of price movement, what went up quickly, sooner or later must fall. To trade you will only need a schedule on any platform and W1 time frame (although the daily interval can be used).
You should estimate the size of the candle bodies of different currency pairs ( AUDCAD , AUDJPY , AUDUSD , EURGBP , EURJPY , GBPUSD , CHFJPY , NZDCHF , EURAUD , AUDCHF , CADCHF , EURUSD , EURCAD , GBPCHF ) and choose the largest distance from the opening to the close of the candle in the framework of the week. In this to open a transaction at the beginning of the following week.
Conditions to open a long position:
  • The bearish candle, which signifies last week's movement, has a relatively large body.
Open a long position early next week. Make sure to place a stop loss at 100-140 points and a take profit at 50-70 points. When it is midweek, close the order if it has not yet been closed at take profit or stop loss. After that, wait again for the beginning of the week and repeat the procedure, in any case do not open operations at the end of the current week.
https://preview.redd.it/vuihnqspfaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7641e9d7701911cc255c4f0c8a53e1660c35c9fe
On this chart it is clearly seen that after each large bearish candle there is necessarily a bullish candle (although smaller). The only question is what period to take where it makes sense to compare the relative length of the candles. Here everything is individual for each currency pair. Note that a rising candle was observed followed by a few small bearish candles. But when it comes to minimizing risks, it is best not to open a long response position, as the relatively small decline from the previous week may continue.
Conditions to open a short position:
  • The bullish candle, which signifies last week's movement, has a relatively large body.
We open a short position early next week.
https://preview.redd.it/tv4zmf5ufaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=61cd1dcfc4aebfa6f80343b6c51f7a6e46358602
The red arrows point to the candles that had a large body around the previous bullish candles. Almost all signals turned out to be profitable, except for the transactions indicated by a blue arrow. The shortcomings of the strategy are rare signs, albeit with a high probability of profit. The best thing is that it can be used in several pairs at the same time.
This strategy has an interesting modification based on similar logic. Investors with little capital opt for intraday strategies, as their money is insufficient to exert radical pressure on the market. Therefore, if there is a strong move on the weekly chart, this may indicate a cluster of large strong traders. In other words, if there are three weekly candles in one direction, it is most likely the fourth. Here you also have to take into account the psychological factor, 4 candles is equal to one month, and those who "push" the market in one direction, within a month will begin to set profits.
Strategy principle:
  • A "three candles" pattern (ascending and descending) formed on the weekly chart.
  • It is preferable that each subsequent candle was larger than the previous one. Doji is not taken into account (disembodied candles).
  • Stop is placed at the closing level of the first candle of the constructed formation. Take profit at 50-100% of the last candle, but it is often better to manually close the trade.
An example of this type of formation in the screenshot below.
https://preview.redd.it/iu7cwa7xfaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9195d24b72d2bda5394614380e9e5bc167f108a5
Of the 5 patterns, 4 were effective. Lack of strategy, the pattern can be expected 2-3 months. But when launching a multi-currency strategy this expectation is justified. Consider swaps!
>>> Forex Signals With Unbeatable Performance: Verified Forex Results And 5° Rated On Investing.com |Free Forex Signals Trial: CLICK HERE TO JOIN FOR FREE

3. Parabolic Profit Based on Moving Average

This strategy is universal and is usually given as an example for novice traders. It uses classic EMA (Exponential Moving Average) indicators for MT4 and Parabolic SAR, which acts as a confirmatory indicator.
The strategy is trend. Most sources suggest using it in "minutes", but price noise reduces its efficiency. It is better to use M15-M30 intervals. Currency pairs - Any, but you may need to adjust the indicator settings.
Indicators used:
  • EMA with periods 5, 25 and 50. EMA (5) in red, EMA (25) and EMA (50) in yellow. Apply to Close (closing price).
https://preview.redd.it/ly7ju8o3gaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=61dee5b0d994d09a375e01e2b9afe188dd2ee0ed
  • Parabolic SAR, parameters remain unchanged (color correct at your discretion).
https://preview.redd.it/sonpv1m8gaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=823e9ce5d279d3a98ef072694766a112a3ece775
Conditions to open a long position:
  • Red EMA (5) crosses the yellows from bottom to top.
  • Parabolic SAR is located under the sails.
Conditions to open a short position:
  • Red EMA (5) crosses the yellows from top to bottom.
  • Parabolic SAR is located above the candles.
The transaction can be opened on the same candle where the mobile crossover occurred. Stop loss at the local minimum, take profit at 20-25 points. But with the manual management of transactions you can extract great benefits. For example, close at the time of the transition from EMA (5) to a horizontal position (change of the angle of inclination of the growth to flat).
https://preview.redd.it/4un92jlegaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=406a700c00722349622d031e20d0858e4196d18b
This screen shows that all three signals (two long and one short) were effective. It would be possible to enter the market on the candle by following the signal (in order to accurately verify the direction of the trend), but you would then miss the right time to enter. It is up to you to decide whether it is worth the risk. For one-hour intervals, these parameters hardly work, so be sure to check the performance of the indicators for each period of time in a minimum span of three years.
And now that you know the theory, a few words about how to put these strategies into practice.
Ready? Then let's get started!

From the theory to the practice

Step 1. Open demo account It's free, requires no deposit, takes up to 15 minutes, and no verification required. On the main page of your broker there is for sures a button "Register", click and follow the instructions. An account can also be opened from other menus (for example, from the top menu, from the commercial conditions of the account, etc.).
Step 2. Familiarize yourself with the functionality of the Personal Area. It won't take long. It is at the most user friendly and intuitive. You just need to understand the instruments of the platform and understand how the trades are opened.
Step 3. Launch the trading platform. The Personal Area has the platform incorporated, but it is impossible to add templates. Hence, the "Bali" and "Parabolic Profit" strategies can only be executed on MT4.

Characteristics of an effective Forex strategy Reddit

And finally, let's see what makes a profitable Forex strategy effective. What properties should it have? Perhaps three of the most important characteristics can be pointed out.
  • The minimum number of lag indicators. The smaller they are, the greater the forecast accuracy.
  • Easy. Understanding your strategy is more important than your saturation with complex elements, formulas, and schematics.
  • Uniqueness. Any trading strategy must be "tailored" to your trading style, your character, your circumstances, and so on.
It is very important to develop your own trading strategy, but it is necessary to test a large number of already available and proven strategies. On the Forex blog you will find trading strategies available for download. Before using a live account, test your chosen strategy on the demo account on the MetaTrader trading platform.
Conclusion. To successfully trade the Forex currency market, create your own trading strategy. Learn what's new, learn out-of-the-box trading schemes, and improve your individual action plan in the market. Only in this case, the trading results will satisfy you to the fullest. Success, dear readers!
>>> Forex Signals With Unbeatable Performance: Verified Forex Results And 5° Rated On Investing.com |Free Forex Signals Trial: CLICK HERE TO JOIN FOR FREE
Join the community for more articles on trading and making money on the Forex and Stock market.
------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------
Disclosure: This post contains affiliate links, if you click and make a purchase I may receive a commission - This has NO extra cost for you.
submitted by kayakero to makemoneyforexreddit [link] [comments]

85+ Free Udemy Courses: Ultimate AWS Certified Alexa, Python, Lean, MySQL, Public Speaking, NodeJS, Big Data, Adobe Premiere , Excel & More

The following description is not provided by this sub or any of it's contributors.
Udemy
Mostly are 4 & more star rated courses except few. Have fun learning !!
[Hot & New ] [6h 2m] Ultimate AWS Certified Alexa Skill Builder Specialty 2020 Code=20F2F1085B9FE981B09C 2 Days left at this price !
[Bestseller] [9h 13m] Pentaho for ETL & Data Integration Masterclass 2020- PDI 9.0 Code=OCTXXVI20 1 Day left at this price !
[4.3] [34h 56m] Machine Learning & Deep Learning in Python & R Code=OCTXXVI20 1 Day left at this price !
[4.5] [2h 36m] Defining Emotional Intelligence Code=079B520B0CCA386D5B30 2 Days left at this price !
[4.7] [2h 6m] Managing Project Work (PMI - PMP) Code=3A5BAE8432CC509012B9 2 Days left at this price !
[4.1] [2h 1m] Develop and Manage Resources (PMI - PMP) Code=7630ED181F67E4D126EE 2 Days left at this price !
[4.3] [6h 24m] HTML, JavaScript, & Bootstrap - Certification Course Code=YOUACCELOCT26 2 Days left at this price !
[4.2] [0h 37m] Quick Guide: Setup a Local Testing Server using WAMP or MAMP Code=YOUACCELOCT26 2 Days left at this price !
[4.2] [1h 27m] Learn MySQL - For Beginners Code=YOUACCELOCT26 2 Days left at this price !
[4.0] [1h 28m] Learn JavaScript - For Beginners Code=YOUACCELOCT26 2 Days left at this price !
[4.2] [1h 47m] Learn PHP - For Beginners Code=YOUACCELOCT26 2 Days left at this price !
[4] [5h 57m] JavaScript, Bootstrap, & PHP - Certification for Beginners Code=YOUACCELOCT26 2 Days left at this price !
[4.2] [2h 23m] Learn XML-AJAX - For Beginners Code=YOUACCELOCT26 2 Days left at this price !
[4.3] [2h 45m] Learn Bootstrap - For Beginners Code=YOUACCELOCT26 2 Days left at this price !
[4.2] [1h 15m] Learn jQuery - For Beginners Code=YOUACCELOCT26 2 Days left at this price !
[4.2] [3h 9m] CSS & JavaScript - Certification Course for Beginners Code=YOUACCELOCT26 2 Days left at this price !
[4.6] [0h 52m] Public Speaking: A tactical approach Code=9546D2A90B72DB31BF85 2 Days left at this price !
[4.1] [3h 36m] The Complete React JS Course - Basics to Advanced Code=FREEOCTOBER 2 Days left at this price !
[4.4] [0h 48m] Develop Your Listening Skills to Shine at Work and in Life Code=86E39195E8A8084CE232 1 Day left at this price !
[4.1] [1h 28m] Learn! Modern JavaScript for React JS - ES6 Code=FREEOCTOBER 2 Days left at this price !
[4.8] [2h 5m] The Obvious Secrets To Success No One Knows Code=TOSTSNEXPOCT292020 2 Days left at this price !
[4.4] [2h 21m] EQ-2 Resilience and Mental Strength - Emotional Intelligence Code=EQRMSEXPOCT292020 2 Days left at this price !
[4] [5h 37m] Marketing Analytics: Pricing Strategies and Price Analytics Code=OCTXXVI20 1 Day left at this price !
[4.2] [12h 46m] Complete Machine Learning with R Studio - ML for 2020 Code=OCTXXVI20 1 Day left at this price !
[4.1] [0h 32m] GDPR and Data Protection Compliance for Beginners Code=GDPRFREE 2 Days left at this price !
[4] [1h 57m] Machine learning & AI Hands on 3 Projects. Code=FREEOCTOBER 2 Days left at this price !
[4.1] [6h 49m] Machine Learning - Step by Step (2020) Code=FREEOCTOBER 2 Days left at this price !
[4.1] [4h 7m ] Step by step guide to be an Android App Developer Code=FREEOCTOBER 2 Days left at this price !
[4.4] [3h 32m] HTML5 - Basics to Advanced with hands-on projects. Code=FREEOCTOBER 2 Days left at this price !
[4.3] [9h 59m] Step by Step Guide for Javascript - Basics to Advanced Code=FREEOCTOBER 2 Days left at this price !
[4.5] [21h 57m] React JS - A Complete Guide for Frontend Web Development Code=FREEOCTOBER 2 Days left at this price !
[4.3] [1h 14m] Nursing Professionals Get Motivated! Motivation For Nurses Code=334FEE6E04DCBEF2182D 2 Days left at this price !
[4] [1h 12m] Canva T-Shirt Design Course Create Stunning Graphics Today! Code=CHRISTMAS_CAME_EARLY 2 Days left at this price !
[4.6] [6h 5m] Tableau 2020 Training for Data Science & Business Analytics Code=FB27OCT2020 2 Days left at this price !
[4.1] [11h 46m] Futures Trading Ninja: DIY 12Hour TOP-NOTCH Trading Strategy Code=1OCT20 2 Days left at this price !
[4.4] [7h 0m] CNN for Computer Vision with Keras and TensorFlow in Python Code=OCTXXVI20 1 Day left at this price !
[4.1] [6h 29m] HR Analytics Course with R Code=ANALYTICS27 2 Days left at this price !
[3.9] [6h 59m] Instructional Design Course: All Levels Beginner to Advanced Code=DESIGN27 2 Days left at this price !
[New] [0h 58m] Motion Graphics: Make Liquid Motion Effects in After Effects Code=UD1FREE201026 1 Day left at this price !
[4.1] [4h 31m] Learn Excel from beginner to advance with Example Code=FREE50 2 Days left at this price !
[4.4] [0h 41m] Public Speaking for Beginners Code=2979E8D97444605D7156 2 Days left at this price !
[4.4] [0h 58m] Presentation Skills: Give a Great New Business Pitch Code=74EFB7D6C2FB1A0D9B1E 2 Days left at this price !
[4.7] [0h 51m] Journalism: Conduct Great Media Interviews Code=C84C17A28AE58CBD454E 2 Days left at this price !
[4.2] [1h 7m] Sales Skills Training: Give a Winning Sales Presentation Code=60C26DD7117AF1729851 2 Days left at this price !
[4.5] [1h 40m] Public Speaking: You Can Give Great Financial Presentations Code=2CDEE253D2739633312E 2 Days left at this price !
[4.5] [2h 59] The Complete Motivation Course: Motivation for Your Success Code=9960F956CB6AA19CF809 2 Days left at this price !
[4.5] [1h 24m] The Complete Google Forms Course - Sending & Analyzing Forms Code=2076C8A7ADCBD6DBDE99 2 Days left at this price !
[4.2] [4h 54m] Master Django by Building Complete RESTful API Project Code=OCTOBERSALE 1 Day left at this price !
[4.2] [2h 15m] Outsource Mastery: How To Earn More Money By Doing Less Work Code=OCTFREEOUTSOURCE 2 Days left at this price !
[4.4] [4h 44m] Microsoft Excel: Beginner to Data Analysis and Dashboards Code=4471C851C1F635EA50B6 2 Days left at this price !
[5] [1h 55m] Machine Learning & Data Science Foundations Masterclass Code=CLUB11 2 Days left at this price !
[4.6] [1h 26m] Public Speaking: You Can Speak to Large Audiences Code=D862393E365C81A88F76 2 Days left at this price !
[4.4] [1h 12m] Online Course Creation: Complete Course of Blunders to Avoid Code=795DDC3D62699701AA68 2 Days left at this price !
[4.0] [1h 23m] Basics Of Flat Design Illustrations In Canva Code=7C34A04E50CDC001F0FB 2 Days left at this price !
[4.3] [1h 6m] TEDx for NGOs, NonProfits & Volunteers Code=TNNPVEXPOCT292020 2 Days left at this price !
[4] [3h 19m] Photo Editing With Free Software Code=6A1829B7BD9A5CD55E4F 2 Days left at this price !
[4.1] [0h 57m] Analyzing Self Storage Businesses for Maximum Profit Code=ASBMPEXPOCT292020 2 Days left at this price !
[New] [1h 35m] Affiliate Marketing Mastery (2021) - Beginner To Advanced Code=MANISHMEHTA 2 Days left at this price !
[4.1] [2h 59m] Complete SQL Bootcamp with MySQL, PHP & Python Code=SQLBOOTOCT2020F3 1 Day left at this price !
[4.3] [0h 52m] Data Analytics with Excel PivotTables Code=45D4278FB61058D3D9E4 1 Day left at this price !
[4.3] [0h 52m] Understanding HIPAA Compliance Code=B3F4C350DD6FB06C1225 1 Day left at this price !
[4.3] [0h 34m] Time Management for Professionals Code=7E69781A8998EA9C8309 1 Day left at this price !
[4] [9h 39m] How to Write and Publish a Research Paper: Complete Guide Code=PAPER26 1 Day left at this price !
[3.6] [4h 45m] Grant Writing Full Course: Nonprofits, Artists & Freelancers Code=GRANT26 1 Day left at this price !
[4.1] [7h 8m] Big Data on Amazon web services (AWS) Code=BE8474FF563682A467C7 1 Day left at this price !
[4.3] [2h 36m] C Programming For Beginners -Build Bank ATM Machine Software Code=19D2D84BB2687DF326BB 21 hrs left at this price !
[New] [2h 42m] SQL Injections Unlocked - SQLi Web Attacks Code=FOR-MY-HACKMATES 18 hrs left at this price !
[3.6] [4h 24m] The Complete Raspberry Pi Bootcamp Code=STAYHOME1022020 21 hrs left at this price !
[New] [1h 22m] Arduino SMS Sending Motion Detector using Python Code=STAYHOME1022020 21 hrs left at this price !
[4.4] [3h 47m] Adobe Photoshop CC- Basic Photoshop training Code=0210CF7D2FCCC0923A73 1 Day left at this price !
[3.7] [6h 35m] YouTube 2020 Million+ Views: Increase Profits, Subs & Rank Code=FREEPASS0000 1 Day left at this price !
[New] [1h 19m] Gain Love Relationship Skills Life Coaching Course Code=8488CEF063E042E4BD80 1 Day left at this price !
[4.7] [4h 11m] NodeJS for Absolute Beginners Code=E6BFBDF8BB87E36F792E 1 Day left at this price !
[4.2] [2h 10m] Master the Art of CV Building, Cover Letter & Job Interview Code=I-TRULY-CARE 1 Day left at this price !
[New] [4h 27m] Vedic Math & Mental Math - MULTIPLICATION : Full Course Code=F9BAC66EEF2DD829D3B5 1 Day left at this price !
[New] [2h 47m] The complete forex course from scratch to professional Code=78C5F0F6865B3E555A0C 1 Day left at this price !
[Highest Rated] [4h 42m] Watercolor Painting Next Level Techniques and Effects Code=FREEWATERCOLORCOURSE 1 Day left at this price !
[3.7] [4h 19m] Python Learn by Python Projects & Python Quizzes in 2020 Code=00F0142C2B69AE9804EA 1 Day left at this price !
[4.5] [5h 35m] Excel Basics [2020] + Advanced in Ms Excel 2019 & Office 365 Code=FREEBIESGLOBAL.COM1 1 Day left at this price !
[4.2] [10h 39m] Lead Generation MASTERY with Facebook Lead & Messenger Ads Code=LEADADS111 1 Day left at this price !
[4.2] [7h 38m] Accounting, Bookkeeping & Financial Statements: Zero to Pro Code=3B3CFB3F58EF8A38BF7D 1 Day left at this price !
[3.6] [4h 40m] Facebook Ads - from Beginner to Pro Code=FACEBOOK-ADS-FREE 19 hrs left at this price !
[5] [9h 27m] Python 3: From ZERO to GUI programming Code=0AE18BD60555108A709F 18 hrs left at this price !
[4.1] [7h 7m] Marketing Analytics: Forecasting Models with Excel Code=OCTXXVI20 1 Day left at this price !
[4.2] [ 7h 57m] Learn! Python from scratch - Basics to Advanced Code=FREEOCTOBER 2 Days left at this price !
[Highest Rated ] [5h 11m] Lean for Business Organizations Code=C5518B068F924319C5FB 2 Days left at this price !
[5] [1h 51m] Lean Tools and Techniques for Flow and Pull Code=B035585AB9A21B8432CE 2 Days left at this price !
[New] [9h 18m] Complete Adobe Premiere Pro CC Course - Beginner to Advanced Code=FREEADOBE 2 Days left at this price !
[4.2] [4h 48m] Microsoft Excel - Learn MS EXCEL For DATA Analysis Code=23966F2BE2A43C33E5ED 2 Days left at this price !
Popular Courses from £9.99
[Bestseller] [7h 53m] Introduction to Cloud Computing on Amazon AWS for Beginners $9.99 Code=AWSOCT 4 Days left at this price !
[Bestseller] [56h 8m] The Complete Digital Marketing Course for Local Businesses $9.99 Code=2OCT999 4 Days left at this price !
[Hot & New] [32h 33m] Master JavaScript – The Most Compete JavaScript Course 2020 Code=LEARNOCT 3 days left at this price!
[Hot & New ] [39h 52m] BEST of SEO: #1 SEO Training & Content Marketing Course 2021 $9.99 Code=2OCT999 4 Days left at this price !
[4.6] [390 questions] AWS Certified Cloud Practitioner 500 Practice Exam Questions $9.99 Code=AWSOCT 4 Days left at this price !
[4.6] [29h 1m] BEST of Facebook Ads: Facebook Ads 2021 ULTIMATE PRO Edition $13.99 Code=OCT999 4 Days left at this price !
[4.4] [34h 0m] The Complete Train the Trainer Bootcamp - Beginners-Advanced $12.99 Code=THANKS1 3 Days left at this price !
[Highest Rated] [26h 49m] Leading Effective Meetings - You Can Lead Effective Meetings $12.99 Code=THANKS2 3 Days left at this price !
[Code: LEARN2020OCT] 100+ Courses – PMP (42 Hours), Agile (32 Hours), PMI-RMP/IIBA-ECBA (37 Hours) , Business Analysis (16.5 hours) , Operations Management (13.5 Hours) & More Code=LEARN2020OCT 4 Days left at this price !
This deal can be found on hotukdeals via this link: https://ift.tt/3oszhNb
submitted by SuperHotUKDeals to SuperHotUKDeals [link] [comments]

Another List of 50+ FREE Courses & Discounted Courses

  1. [0h 38h] Acrylic Art Painting Techniques BASICS https://www.udemy.com/course/acrylic-art-painting-techniques/
  2. [1h 13m] Adobe Audition CC 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/adobe-audition-cc-2020-master-course/?couponCode=TRY10FREE93 2 Days left at this price!
  3. [1h 8m] CCIE Security Fundamentals - With Whiteboard Animations! https://www.udemy.com/course/ccie-security-fundamentals-with-whiteboard-animations/?couponCode=FREE2020L 1 Day left at this price!
  4. [1h 18m] Adobe Creative Cloud 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/adobe-creative-cloud-master-course/?couponCode=TRY10FREE93 2 Days left at this price!
  5. [0h 54m] Intro to Android Jetpack: With Whiteboard Animations! https://www.udemy.com/course/intro-to-android-jetpack-with-whiteboard-animations/?couponCode=FREE2020L 1 Day left at this price!
  6. [2h 51m] Basic Design of Reinforced Concrete Structures https://www.udemy.com/course/basic-design-of-reinforced-concrete-structures/?couponCode=B9EF1BB4790278D3D72B 2 Days left at this price!
  7. [11h 10m] Public Relations: How to Be a Government/PIO Spokesperson https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-be-a-government-spokesperson/?couponCode=8A0F310F121F361C5C25 2 Days left at this price!
  8. [1h 7m] Crash Course: Microsoft SQL Server Reporting Services (SSRS) https://www.udemy.com/course/crash-course-microsoft-sql-server-reporting-services-ssrs/?couponCode=FREE2020L 1 Day left at this price!
  9. [6h 52m] Public Speaking: You Can Give Great Financial Presentations https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-give-financial-presentations/?couponCode=822761B6D5CC85D7D1A5 2 Days left at this price!
  10. [6h 5m] Online Course Creation: Teach an Online Course https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-teach-an-online-course2/?couponCode=227873D21DA5C748DABD 2 Days left at this price!
  11. [2h 7m] WordPress & WooCommerce: Complete Guide https://www.udemy.com/course/wordpress-woocommerce-complete-guide/?couponCode=WPWOO3DOFF 2 Days left at this price!
  12. [7h 12m] Power BI & Business Intelligence: de 0 a 100 https://www.udemy.com/course/power-bi-para-business-inteligence-de-0-a-100/?couponCode=AGOSTO_2020 1 Day left at this price!
  13. [6h 15m] PHP MySQL & CodeIgniter: Complete Guide https://www.udemy.com/course/php-mysql-codeigniter-complete-guide/?couponCode=PMCI3DAYOFF 2 Days left at this price!
  14. [4h 17m] Excel para negocios y empresas | ACTUALIZADO 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/excelparanegocios/?couponCode=CE7BCF7807F175ADEC39 2 Days left at this price!
  15. [2h 24m] XML-AJAX Fundamentals https://youaccel.com/admin/cdisplay.php?promocode=FREEBIESGLOBAL&promocc=yes&tsrc=225691&cid=38
  16. [1h 2m] Yoga for beginners at home https://www.udemy.com/course/yoga-for-beginners-at-home/?couponCode=YOGA-CODE 2 Days left at this price!
  17. [1h 6m] Switchwords Miracles https://www.udemy.com/course/switchwords-miracles/?couponCode=E848987236114F6A22C8 2 Days left at this price!
  18. [1h 51m] Build an 8-bit website using Bootstrap and Javascript. https://www.udemy.com/course/build-an-8-bit-website-using-bootstrap-and-javascript/
  19. [8h 31m] Matlab desde cero(básico-intermedio) https://www.udemy.com/course/matlab-desde-cero-basico-intermedio/?couponCode=11944D08022273A5275D 2 Days left at this price!
  20. [5h 5m] Agile Methodologies: Scrum, Kanban, XP, DSDM, FDD, Crystal https://www.udemy.com/course/agile-methodologies-scrum-kanban-xp-dsdm-fdd-crystal/?couponCode=6C40B614FF3638E164FB 1 Day left at this price!
  21. [35h 41m] Python and Flask Full-Stack Web Development for beginners https://www.udemy.com/course/python-and-flask-full-stack-web-development-for-beginners/?couponCode=2F1975FFCE428D2C104B 1 Day left at this price!
  22. [3h 20m] Most Essential & Popular Excel Formulas And Functions - 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/most-essential-popular-excel-formulas-and-functions/?couponCode=EXCEL15 2 Days left at this price!
  23. [33h 56m] Front End Web Development For Beginners (A Practical Guide) https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-front-end-development/?couponCode=TRY10FREE93 2 Days left at this price!
  24. [0h 35m] Adobe Animate CC 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/adobe-animate-cc-2020-master-course/?couponCode=TRY10FREE93 2 Days left at this price!
  25. [1h 32m] Adobe Dreamweaver CC 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/adobe-dreamweaver-cc-2020-master-course/?couponCode=TRY10FREE93 2 Days left at this price!
  26. [2h 24m] Adobe After Effects CC 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/adobe-after-effects-cc-2020/?couponCode=TRY10FREE93 2 Days left at this price!
  27. [1h 34m] Adobe InDesign CC 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/adobe-indesign-cc-2020-master-course/?couponCode=TRY10FREE93 2 Days left at this price!
  28. [6h 15m] Zero to Hero in Microsoft Excel: Complete Excel guide 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/excel-quick-start-guide-from-beginner-to-expert/?couponCode=AUGRI2020 2 Days left at this price!
  29. [7h 7m] Marketing Analytics: Forecasting Models with Excel https://www.udemy.com/course/marketing-analytics-forecasting-models-with-excel/?couponCode=AUGRI2020 2 Days left at this price!
  30. [12h 46m] Complete Machine Learning with R Studio - ML for 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/machine-learning-with-r-studio/?couponCode=AUGRI2020 2 Days left at this price!
  31. [7h 17m] SQL Masterclass: SQL for Data Analytics https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-sql-masterclass-for-data-analytics/?couponCode=AUGRI2020 2 Days left at this price!
  32. [1hr 57m] Python Fundamentals: Operations & Data Analytics https://www.udemy.com/course/python-fundamentals-operations-data-analytics/
  33. [1hr 29m] Learn Accounting from scratch https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-accounting-from-scratch-tc/
  34. [5h 37m] Marketing Analytics: Pricing Strategies and Price Analytics https://www.udemy.com/course/marketing-analytics-pricing-strategies-and-price-analytics/?couponCode=AUGRI2020 2 Days left at this price!
  35. [2h 20m] Learn 4 Steps to Make Money Online with Affiliate Marketing! https://www.udemy.com/course/make-money-with-affiliate-marketing-online/?couponCode=3F8658D87D209226142E 2 Days left at this price!
  36. [9h 3m] Pentaho for ETL & Data Integration Masterclass 2020- PDI 9.0 https://www.udemy.com/course/pentaho-for-etl-data-integration-masterclass/?couponCode=AUGRI2020 2 Days left at this price!
  37. [1h 13m] Mindfulness Meditation: The Path To Wisdom & Success https://www.udemy.com/course/mindfulness-meditation-the-path-to-wisdom-success/?couponCode=3AF64B1BFDEFDC280F5D 2 Days left at this price!
  38. [1h 1m] Muscle Building https://www.udemy.com/course/muscle-building-body-workout-fitness-training-course/?couponCode=1C92FD7DCA2E673FE3DF 2 Days left at this price!
  39. [2h 12m] Social Media Marketing https://www.udemy.com/course/social-media-marketing-training-course/?couponCode=B82776BDED4FE740B170 2 Days left at this price!
  40. [4h 27m] Amazon FBA: Complete Guide To Start Your Own Home Business https://www.udemy.com/course/amazon-secrets/?couponCode=74ADCDCA1778D83B7525 2 Days left at this price!
  41. [3h 49m] Introduction to Forex- learn to trade forex by yourself https://www.udemy.com/course/introduction-to-forex-learn-to-trade-forex-by-yourself/?couponCode=AFD5A183A5D85BB31DAB 2 Days left at this price!
  42. [390 questions] AWS Cloud Practitioner Certification Exam Practice Tests https://www.udemy.com/course/aws-cloud-practitioner-certification-exam-practice-tests-e/?couponCode=FREECOUPON 1 Day left at this price!
  43. [0h 32m] Elementary Cantonese Course https://www.udemy.com/course/elementary-cantonese-course/
  44. [1h 39m] Student's Guide to Python 3 - Part 3 https://www.udemy.com/course/students-guide-to-python-3-part-3/
  45. [2h 10m] Instagram Photography Master: Fantastic Photography! https://www.udemy.com/course/instagram-photography-master-fantastic-photography/?couponCode=INSTA_MASTER_FREE 1 Day left at this price!
  46. [4h 40m] Java from Zero to First Job: Part 1 https://www.udemy.com/course/java-development-for-beginners-learnit/?couponCode=JAVA_AUG_2 1 Day left at this price!
  47. [8h 9m] Postgresql y PgAdmin ( Diseño , Administración y Consultas) https://www.udemy.com/course/postgresql-y-pgadmin-diseno-administracion-y-consultas/?couponCode=7CB2338A8FD2B14A0F6B 1 Day left at this price!
  48. [1h 8m] Startup Course : Learn How to build Tech Startup https://www.udemy.com/course/buildstartup/?couponCode=BUILDSTARTUP 2 Days left at this price!
  49. [2h 7m] Adobe Premiere Pro CC 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/adobe-premiere-pro-cc-2020/?couponCode=TRY10FREE93 2 Days left at this price!
  50. [1h 28m] MySQL Fundamentals https://youaccel.com/admin/cdisplay.php?promocode=FREEBIESGLOBAL&cid=37&promocc=yes&tsrc=225691
  51. [0h 40m] Intro to Point-of-Sales Systems: With Whiteboard Animations! https://www.udemy.com/course/intro-to-point-of-sales-systems-with-whiteboard-animations/?couponCode=FREE2020L 2 Days left at this price!
  52. [2h 14m] Adobe Illustrator CC 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/adobe-illustrator-cc-2020-master-course/?couponCode=TRY10FREE93 2 Days left at this price!
  53. [0h 39m] The Kali OS Uses In Cyber Security https://www.udemy.com/course/cyber-security-kali-linux-course/?couponCode=MJ-1-Q 2 Days left at this price!
  54. [0h 30m] Node.js Crash Course https://www.udemy.com/course/nodejs-crash-course-y/?couponCode=URA-MMU 2 Days left at this price!
  55. [0h 38m] IOS Penetration Testing For Ethical Hacking Course https://www.udemy.com/course/ios-penetration-testing-for-ethical-hacking-course/?couponCode=918-11-A 2 Days left at this price!
  56. [1h 39m] Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID19) https://www.udemy.com/course/novel-coronavirus-sars-cov-2-covid19/?couponCode=JASHN_E_AZADI 1 Day left at this price!
  57. [1h 9m] Apache Spark Project World Development Indicators Analytics https://www.udemy.com/course/apache-spark-project-world-development-indicators-analytics/?couponCode=AUGFREEGIFT 1 Day left at this price!
  58. [2h 18m] Adobe Photoshop CC 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/adobe-photoshop-cc-2020-master-course/?couponCode=TRY10FREE93 2 Days left at this price!
6 Best Selling Udemy Discounted Courses:
  1. [93h 57m total length] The Ultimate SEO, Social Media & Digital Marketing MASTERY $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/digital-marketing-courses/?couponCode=AUG999 4 Days Left
  2. [52h 46m, total length ] The Complete Digital Marketing Course for Local Businesses $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/local-digital-marketing/?couponCode=AUG999 4 Days Left
  3. [82h 6m total length] Ultimate PHP, Laravel, CSS & Sass! Learn PHP, Laravel & Sass $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/ultimate-php-css-and-sass-enhance-your-javascript-skills/?couponCode=51DF886B42649358BEE3
  4. [37h 7m total length] Risk Management for Business Analysts (PMI-RMP/IIBA-ECBA) $10.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/risk-management-for-business-analysts-pmi-rmpiiba-ecba/?couponCode=STAYSAFE
  5. [41h 19m total length ] Project Management Professional Certification Program (PMP) $12.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/project-management-professional-certification-program-pmp/?couponCode=STAYSAFE
  6. [30h 50m total length] The Complete Communication Skills Master Class for Life https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-communication-skills-master-class-for-life/?couponCode=THANKS
Eduonix : Best Selling 8 E-Degrees:
  1. $36 DevOps E-degree
  2. $36 Fullstack JavaScript Developer E-Degree
  3. $37 Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning E-Degree
  4. $38 MERN Stack Developer E-Degree Program
  5. $42 Advance Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning E-Degree
  6. $42 IoT E-degree – The Novice to Expert Program in IOT
  7. $44 Cybersecurity E-Degree
  8. $48 Cloud Computing E-Degree
Eduonix: Best Selling 10 Mighty Bundles:
  1. $40 Mighty Machine Learning Bundle
  2. $36 Mighty Data Science Bundle
  3. $44 Mighty Cybersecurity Bundle
  4. $44 Mighty Web Development Bundle
  5. $44 Mighty Digital Marketing Bundle
  6. $40 Mighty Python Bundle
  7. $40 Mighty Software Development Bundle
  8. $44 Mighty DevOps Bundle
  9. $44 Mighty JavaScript Bundle
  10. $44 Mighty Web Development Bundle 2.0
submitted by ViralMedia007 to FREECoursesEveryday [link] [comments]

Trading economic news

The majority of this sub is focused on technical analysis. I regularly ridicule such "tea leaf readers" and advocate for trading based on fundamentals and economic news instead, so I figured I should take the time to write up something on how exactly you can trade economic news releases.
This post is long as balls so I won't be upset if you get bored and go back to your drooping dick patterns or whatever.

How economic news is released

First, it helps to know how economic news is compiled and released. Let's take Initial Jobless Claims, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits around the United States from Sunday through Saturday. Initial in this context means the first claim for benefits made by an individual during a particular stretch of unemployment. The Initial Jobless Claims figure appears in the Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, which compiles information from all of the per-state departments that report to the DOL during the week. A typical number is between 100k and 250k and it can vary quite significantly week-to-week.
The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report contains data that lags 5 days behind. For example, the Report issued on Thursday March 26th 2020 contained data about the week ending on Saturday March 21st 2020.
In the days leading up to the Report, financial companies will survey economists and run complicated mathematical models to forecast the upcoming Initial Jobless Claims figure. The results of surveyed experts is called the "consensus"; specific companies, experts, and websites will also provide their own forecasts. Different companies will release different consensuses. Usually they are pretty close (within 2-3k), but for last week's record-high Initial Jobless Claims the reported consensuses varied by up to 1M! In other words, there was essentially no consensus.
The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is released each Thursday morning at exactly 8:30 AM ET. (On Thanksgiving the Report is released on Wednesday instead.) Media representatives gather at the Frances Perkins Building in Washington DC and are admitted to the "lockup" at 8:00 AM ET. In order to be admitted to the lockup you have to be a credentialed member of a media organization that has signed the DOL lockup agreement. The lockup room is small so there is a limited number of spots.
No phones are allowed. Reporters bring their laptops and connect to a local network; there is a master switch on the wall that prevents/enables Internet connectivity on this network. Once the doors are closed the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is distributed, with a heading that announces it is "embargoed" (not to be released) prior to 8:30 AM. Reporters type up their analyses of the report, including extracting key figures like Initial Jobless Claims. They load their write-ups into their companies' software, which prepares to send it out as soon as Internet is enabled. At 8:30 AM the DOL representative in the room flips the wall switch and all of the laptops are connected to the Internet, releasing their write-ups to their companies and on to their companies' partners.
Many of those media companies have externally accessible APIs for distributing news. Media aggregators and squawk services (like RanSquawk and TradeTheNews) subscribe to all of these different APIs and then redistribute the key economic figures from the Report to their own subscribers within one second after Internet is enabled in the DOL lockup.
Some squawk services are text-based while others are audio-based. FinancialJuice.com provides a free audio squawk service; internally they have a paid subscription to a professional squawk service and they simply read out the latest headlines to their own listeners, subsidized by ads on the site. I've been using it for 4 months now and have been pretty happy. It usually lags behind the official release times by 1-2 seconds and occasionally they verbally flub the numbers or stutter and have to repeat, but you can't beat the price!
Important - I’m not affiliated with FinancialJuice and I’m not advocating that you use them over any other squawk. If you use them and they misspeak a number and you lose all your money don’t blame me. If anybody has any other free alternatives please share them!

How the news affects forex markets

Institutional forex traders subscribe to these squawk services and use custom software to consume the emerging data programmatically and then automatically initiate trades based on the perceived change to the fundamentals that the figures represent.
It's important to note that every institution will have "priced in" their own forecasted figures well in advance of an actual news release. Forecasts and consensuses all come out at different times in the days leading up to a news release, so by the time the news drops everybody is really only looking for an unexpected result. You can't really know what any given institution expects the value to be, but unless someone has inside information you can pretty much assume that the market has collectively priced in the experts' consensus. When the news comes out, institutions will trade based on the difference between the actual and their forecast.
Sometimes the news reflects a real change to the fundamentals with an economic effect that will change the demand for a currency, like an interest rate decision. However, in the case of the Initial Jobless Claims figure, which is a backwards-looking metric, trading is really just self-fulfilling speculation that market participants will buy dollars when unemployment is low and sell dollars when unemployment is high. Generally speaking, news that reflects a real economic shift has a bigger effect than news that only matters to speculators.
Massive and extremely fast news-based trades happen within tenths of a second on the ECNs on which institutional traders are participants. Over the next few seconds the resulting price changes trickle down to retail traders. Some economic news, like Non Farm Payroll Employment, has an effect that can last minutes to hours as "slow money" follows behind on the trend created by the "fast money". Other news, like Initial Jobless Claims, has a short impact that trails off within a couple minutes and is subsequently dwarfed by the usual pseudorandom movements in the market.
The bigger the difference between actual and consensus, the bigger the effect on any given currency pair. Since economic news releases generally relate to a single currency, the biggest and most easily predicted effects are seen on pairs where one currency is directly effected and the other is not affected at all. Personally I trade USD/JPY because the time difference between the US and Japan ensures that no news will be coming out of Japan at the same time that economic news is being released in the US.
Before deciding to trade any particular news release you should measure the historical correlation between the release (specifically, the difference between actual and consensus) and the resulting short-term change in the currency pair. Historical data for various news releases (along with historical consensus data) is readily available. You can pay to get it exported into Excel or whatever, or you can scroll through it for free on websites like TradingEconomics.com.
Let's look at two examples: Initial Jobless Claims and Non Farm Payroll Employment (NFP). I collected historical consensuses and actuals for these releases from January 2018 through the present, measured the "surprise" difference for each, and then correlated that to short-term changes in USD/JPY at the time of release using 5 second candles.
I omitted any releases that occurred simultaneously as another major release. For example, occasionally the monthly Initial Jobless Claims comes out at the exact same time as the monthly Balance of Trade figure, which is a more significant economic indicator and can be expected to dwarf the effect of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report.
USD/JPY correlation with Initial Jobless Claims (2018 - present)
USD/JPY correlation with Non Farm Payrolls (2018 - present)
The horizontal axes on these charts is the duration (in seconds) after the news release over which correlation was calculated. The vertical axis is the Pearson correlation coefficient: +1 means that the change in USD/JPY over that duration was perfectly linearly correlated to the "surprise" in the releases; -1 means that the change in USD/JPY was perfectly linearly correlated but in the opposite direction, and 0 means that there is no correlation at all.
For Initial Jobless Claims you can see that for the first 30 seconds USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the difference between consensus and actual jobless claims. That is, fewer-than-forecast jobless claims (fewer newly unemployed people than expected) strengthens the dollar and greater-than-forecast jobless claims (more newly unemployed people than expected) weakens the dollar. Correlation then trails off and changes to a moderate/weak positive correlation. I interpret this as algorithms "buying the dip" and vice versa, but I don't know for sure. From this chart it appears that you could profit by opening a trade for 15 seconds (duration with strongest correlation) that is long USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is lower than the consensus and short USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is higher than expected.
The chart for Non Farm Payroll looks very different. Correlation is positive (higher-than-expected payrolls strengthen the dollar and lower-than-expected payrolls weaken the dollar) and peaks at around 45 seconds, then slowly decreases as time goes on. This implies that price changes due to NFP are quite significant relative to background noise and "stick" even as normal fluctuations pick back up.
I wanted to show an example of what the USD/JPY S5 chart looks like when an "uncontested" (no other major simultaneously news release) Initial Jobless Claims and NFP drops, but unfortunately my broker's charts only go back a week. (I can pull historical data going back years through the API but to make it into a pretty chart would be a bit of work.) If anybody can get a 5-second chart of USD/JPY at March 19, 2020, UTC 12:30 and/or at February 7, 2020, UTC 13:30 let me know and I'll add it here.

Backtesting

So without too much effort we determined that (1) USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the first 15 seconds after the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (when no other major news is being released) and also that (2) USD/JPY is strongly positively correlated with the Non Farms Payroll figure for the first 45 seconds after the release of the Employment Situation report.
Before you can assume you can profit off the news you have to backtest and consider three important parameters.
Entry speed: How quickly can you realistically enter the trade? The correlation performed above was measured from the exact moment the news was released, but realistically if you've got your finger on the trigger and your ear to the squawk it will take a few seconds to hit "Buy" or "Sell" and confirm. If 90% of the price move happens in the first second you're SOL. For back-testing purposes I assume a 5 second delay. In practice I use custom software that opens a trade with one click, and I can reliably enter a trade within 2-3 seconds after the news drops, using the FinancialJuice free squawk.
Minimum surprise: Should you trade every release or can you do better by only trading those with a big enough "surprise" factor? Backtesting will tell you whether being more selective is better long-term or not.
Hold time: The optimal time to hold the trade is not necessarily the same as the time of maximum correlation. That's a good starting point but it's not necessarily the best number. Backtesting each possible hold time will let you find the best one.
The spread: When you're only holding a position open for 30 seconds, the spread will kill you. The correlations performed above used the midpoint price, but in reality you have to buy at the ask and sell at the bid. Brokers aren't stupid and the moment volume on the ECN jumps they will widen the spread for their retail customers. The only way to determine if the news-driven price movements reliably overcome the spread is to backtest.
Stops: Personally I don't use stops, neither take-profit nor stop-loss, since I'm automatically closing the trade after a fixed (and very short) amount of time. Additionally, brokers have a minimum stop distance; the profits from scalping the news are so slim that even the nearest stops they allow will generally not get triggered.
I backtested trading these two news releases (since 2018), using a 5 second entry delay, real historical spreads, and no stops, cycling through different "surprise" thresholds and hold times to find the combination that returns the highest net profit. It's important to maximize net profit, not expected value per trade, so you don't over-optimize and reduce the total number of trades taken to one single profitable trade. If you want to get fancy you can set up a custom metric that combines number of trades, expected value, and drawdown into a single score to be maximized.
For the Initial Jobless Claims figure I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 25 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 30 seconds elapsed) and only trade when the difference between consensus and actual is 7k or higher. That leads to 30 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... -0.0093 yen per unit per trade.
Yep, that's a loss of approx. $8.63 per lot.
Disappointing right? That's the spread and that's why you have to backtest. Even though the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has a strong correlation with movement in USD/JPY, it's simply not something that a retail trader can profit from.
Let's turn to the NFP. There I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 75 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 80 seconds elapsed) and trade every single NFP (no minimum "surprise" threshold). That leads to 20 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... +0.1306 yen per unit per trade.
That's a profit of approx. $121.25 per lot. Not bad for 75 seconds of work! That's a +6% ROI at 50x leverage.

Make it real

If you want to do this for realsies, you need to run these numbers for all of the major economic news releases. Markit Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders MoM, Trade Balance, PPI MoM, Export and Import Prices, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Retail Sales MoM, Industrial Production MoM, you get the idea. You keep a list of all of the releases you want to trade, when they are released, and the ideal hold time and "surprise" threshold. A few minutes before the prescribed release time you open up your broker's software, turn on your squawk, maybe jot a few notes about consensuses and model forecasts, and get your finger on the button. At the moment you hear the release you open the trade in the correct direction, hold it (without looking at the chart!) for the required amount of time, then close it and go on with your day.
Some benefits of trading this way: * Most major economic releases come out at either 8:30 AM ET or 10:00 AM ET, and then you're done for the day. * It's easily backtestable. You can look back at the numbers and see exactly what to expect your return to be. * It's fun! Packing your trading into 30 seconds and knowing that institutions are moving billions of dollars around as fast as they can based on the exact same news you just read is thrilling. * You can wow your friends by saying things like "The St. Louis Fed had some interesting remarks on consumer spending in the latest Beige Book." * No crayons involved.
Some downsides: * It's tricky to be fast enough without writing custom software. Some broker software is very slow and requires multiple dialog boxes before a position is opened, which won't cut it. * The profits are very slim, you're not going to impress your instagram followers to join your expensive trade copying service with your 30-second twice-weekly trades. * Any friends you might wow with your boring-ass economic talking points are themselves the most boring people in the world.
I hope you enjoyed this long as fuck post and you give trading economic news a try!
submitted by thicc_dads_club to Forex [link] [comments]

Summary of offers (total £100+) that require no deposit or spend (great for new members!)

I've noticed among the new members joining, people sometimes ask which offers they should do first, or which ones they could do when they don't have the £/€100 it takes to do many of the offers here. So I hope this little summary of no-spend offers will be helpful to you!
You can make ~£107 with the offers below without spending anything (up to £216 if you do the extra tasks). Notice I included some cryptocurrency offers - don't be afraid of these; they carry pretty much zero risk as you don't need to deposit anything (=buy crypto) - you only need to convert the cryptocurrency bonus back into £/€. If you need help with this, feel free to message me.
I also mention Revolut below, which is a popular online "bank" account. My app is currently not showing any promotions for new users, but perhaps someone else has a referral link for you that will make you some cash!

Swissborg: ~$65
A Swiss fintech focusing on crypto wealth management. You earn CHSB (their token) by collecting badges for doing simple tasks in the app. You can get 600 CHSB (~$65) without much effort, and if you can invite 20 people, you can get up to 1750 CHSB ($190). Please check the current CHSB exchange rate as the token's value may fluctuate.
  1. Download the app.
  2. Register for an account (use my referral code ETTVC6Q and we both get 3,000 points). Tip: the code will get you started with 3,000 points - make your first forecast with 1,000 points and you'll get your first badge :) [don't use a code for no bonus]
  3. Collect badges and earn!
  4. In order to redeem the prizes, you'll need to download their Wealth app and verify ID. The rewards should be redeemable in Q3 2020, once the competition ends (by September).
Detailed post about Swissborg (the token value might have changed since)

Bitwala: €15
A German bank account with integrated crypto services.
  1. Sign up with my link (non-ref-link, no bonus) and verify your identity. (Prepare your passport and a printed proof of address (e.g. bank statement). If no-one picks up for more than a few mins, hang up & try again)
  2. Create a bitcoin wallet in your account.
  3. €15 will be credited to your account within 15 business days. You can withdraw it right after you receive it.
Detailed post about Bitwala

Morpher: ~$15
An upcoming Austrian platform for trading stocks, crypto, and forex.
  1. Sign up via my referral link (non-ref link - no bonus)
  2. Verify your identity.
  3. Get 500 Morpher tokens (estimated value $15) when you get invited to the app and withdrawals are enabled (this should be soon)
Detailed post about Morpher

Quidco: £10
A popular UK cashback site.
  1. Sign up with my referral link (non-ref link - no bonus)
  2. Your bonus will be credited once you reach £5 in confirmed cashback - browse the Free Cashback section for no-spend offers!

Topcashback: £5
Another UK cashback site.
  1. Sign up with my referral link (non-ref link - no bonus)
  2. Your bonus will be credited once you reach £10 in confirmed cashback. Again, you could browse the no-spend offers, or buy something from a store where you'd shop anyways!

Curve: £5
A debit card to which you add your existing cards, and then you only have to carry the Curve card and choose which underlying card to pay with in the app.
  1. Download the app using this link (use code D8XMLG5E when signing up. No code, no bonus.)
  2. Order a free card (=Curve Blue).
  3. When it arrives, link a card you already own to your new Curve card.
  4. Make a first transaction with the Curve card (this can either be a regular in-store/online purchase, but people have successfully gotten the bonus just by linking the Curve card to their Paypal account or by connecting it to Google Pay/Apple Pay - so you don't have to spend anything. There's also no minimum spend requirement.) Note: you must make your first transaction within 7 days from signing up!
  5. £5 will be added to your Curve Cash card. You can spend it immediately. You can also send it to your Revolut - set up a payment link in Revolut, and pay it using the Curve card, with Curve Cash set as the underlying card.
Detailed post about Curve

Bitpanda: €5+
A reputable Austrian cryptocurrency exchange.
  1. Sign up using my link (non-ref link - no bonus)
  2. Verify your identity.
  3. Complete the beginner quiz and receive €5 in BEST (the Bitpanda token).
  4. Bonus: you can get an extra €10 if you're willing to deposit €25 and complete your first crypto trade of at least €25. The bonus will be credited instantly. Tip: buy BEST for €25, and then sell all BEST including the €5 bonus.
Note: you can withdraw the bonuses right after you receive them, but the minimum withdrawal and deposit amount is €/£25, so you can either deposit €/£25, get the extra €10, and withdraw everything back, or - if you don't want to deposit anything - you can transfer the BEST bonus to another crypto exchange or wallet. Up to you :)
Detailed post about Bitpanda

Zelf: €5
An upcoming service where you can do banking in your favorite messenger app (Messenger, Whatsapp, etc).
  1. Sign up using my link and finish the registration in your favorite messaging platform. (non-ref-link, no bonus)
  2. Get €5 when they launch. Everybody in France and Spain should get their cards by the end of June and the rest of Europe by September.
Detailed post about Zelf
Let me know if you need help with any of these!
submitted by One_Refrigerator to beermoneyuk [link] [comments]

Summary of offers (total £70) that require no deposit or spend (great for new members!)

I've noticed among the new members joining lately, people sometimes ask which offers they should do first, or which ones they could do when they don't have the £/€100 it takes to do many of the offers here. So I hope this little summary of no-spend offers will be helpful to you!
You can make £70 with the offers below without spending anything (up to £100 or even more if you include the "bonus" tasks). Notice I included some cryptocurrency offers - don't be afraid of these; they carry pretty much zero risk as you don't need to deposit anything (=buy crypto) - you only need to convert the cryptocurrency bonus back into £/€. If you need help with this, feel free to message me.
I also mention Revolut below, which is a popular online "bank" account. Sadly my app is currently not showing any promotions for new users, but perhaps someone else has a referral link for you that will make you some cash!

Swissborg ($17+) (edit: this is now worth at least $50 as of 10 June, the token's value has gone up)
A Swiss fintech focusing on crypto wealth management. You earn CHSB (their token) by collecting badges for doing simple tasks in the app
  1. Download the app.
  2. Register for an account (use my referral code ETTVC6Q and we both get 3,000 points). Tip: the code will get you started with 3,000 points - make your first forecast with 1,000 points and you'll get your first badge :) \don't use a code for no bonus])
  3. Collect badges and earn!
  4. In order to redeem the prizes, you'll need to download their Wealth app. The rewards should be redeemable starting in June. The app is already available for download; get it, pass KYC and you'll be ready to receive your rewards.
Bonus: if you can refer up to 20 people, you'll get $50 in total. ($150+ as of 10 June)
Detailed post about Swissborg

Bitwala - €15
A German bank account with integrated crypto services.
  1. Sign up with my link (non-ref-link, no bonus) and verify your identity. (Prepare your passport and a printed proof of address (e.g. bank statement). If no-one picks up for more than a few mins, hang up & try again)
  2. Create a bitcoin wallet in your account.
  3. €15 will be credited to your account within 15 business days. You can withdraw it right after you receive it.
Detailed post about Bitwala

Morpher - $15
An upcoming Austrian platform for trading stocks, crypto, and forex.
  1. Sign up via my referral link (non-ref link - no bonus)
  2. Verify your identity.
  3. Get $15 when they launch (June)
Detailed post about Morpher

Quidco - £10
A UK cashback site.
  1. Sign up with my referral link (non-ref link - no bonus)
  2. Your bonus will be credited once you reach £5 in confirmed cashback - browse the Free Cashback section for no-spend offers, or search for "MyHeritage," you could get £5.20 for doing a free trial (just make sure to cancel on time).

Topcashback - £5
Another UK cashback site.
  1. Sign up with my referral link (non-ref link - no bonus)
  2. Your bonus will be credited once you reach £10 in confirmed cashback. Again, you could browse the no-spend offers, or buy something from a store where you'd shop anyways!

Curve - £5
A debit card to which you add your existing cards, and then you only have to carry the Curve card and choose which underlying card to pay with in the app.
  1. Download the app using this link (use code D8XMLG5E when signing up. No code, no bonus.)
  2. Order a free card (=Curve Blue).
  3. When it arrives, link a card you already own to your new Curve card.
  4. Make a first transaction with the Curve card (you can try to top up your Revolut account and therefore not spend anything extra, but you can also just make a regular purchase, however small, if Revolut doesn't work)
  5. £5 will be added to your Curve Cash card. To withdraw it, set up a payment link in Revolut, and pay it using the Curve card, with Curve Cash set as the underlying card.

Bitpanda - €5+
A reputable Austrian cryptocurrency exchange.
  1. Sign up using my link (non-ref link - no bonus)
  2. Verify your identity.
  3. Complete the beginner quiz and receive €5 in BEST (the Bitpanda token).
  4. Bonus: you can get an extra €10 if you're willing to deposit €25 and complete your first crypto trade of at least €25. The bonus will be credited instantly. Tip: buy BEST for €25, and then sell all BEST including the €5 bonus.
Note: you can withdraw the bonuses right after you receive them, but the minimum withdrawal and deposit amount is €/£25, so you can either deposit €/£25, get the extra €10, and withdraw everything back, or - if you don't want to deposit anything - you can transfer the BEST bonus to another crypto exchange or wallet. Up to you :)
Detailed post about Bitpanda

Zelf - €5
An upcoming service where you can do banking in your favorite messenger app (Messenger, Whatsapp, etc).
  1. Sign up using my link and finish the registration in your favorite messaging platform. (non-ref-link, no bonus)
  2. Get €5 when they launch. For the UK the launch is scheduled to October. (launch update)
Detailed post about Zelf
Feel free to message me if you need help with these, or search this sub for the name of the offer for detailed posts with people's reactions etc.
submitted by One_Refrigerator to beermoneyuk [link] [comments]

Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (5199.KL)


https://preview.redd.it/gp18bjnlabr41.jpg?width=768&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6054e7f52e8d52da403016139ae43e0e799abf15
Download PDF of this article here: https://docdro.id/6eLgUPo
In light of the recent fall in oil prices due to the Saudi-Russian dispute and dampening demand for oil due to the lockdowns implemented globally, O&G stocks have taken a severe beating, falling approximately 50% from their highs at the beginning of the year. Not spared from this onslaught is Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (Hibiscus), a listed oil and gas (O&G) exploration and production (E&P) company.
Why invest in O&G stocks in this particularly uncertain period? For one, valuations of these stocks have fallen to multi-year lows, bringing the potential ROI on these stocks to attractive levels. Oil prices are cyclical, and are bound to return to the mean given a sufficiently long time horizon. The trick is to find those companies who can survive through this downturn and emerge into “normal” profitability once oil prices rebound.
In this article, I will explore the upsides and downsides of investing in Hibiscus. I will do my best to cater this report to newcomers to the O&G industry – rather than address exclusively experts and veterans of the O&G sector. As an equity analyst, I aim to provide a view on the company primarily, and will generally refrain from providing macro views on oil or opinions about secular trends of the sector. I hope you enjoy reading it!
Stock code: 5199.KL
Stock name: Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad
Financial information and financial reports: https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5199
Company website: https://www.hibiscuspetroleum.com/

Company Snapshot

Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (5199.KL) is an oil and gas (O&G) upstream exploration and production (E&P) company located in Malaysia. As an E&P company, their business can be basically described as:
· looking for oil,
· drawing it out of the ground, and
· selling it on global oil markets.
This means Hibiscus’s profits are particularly exposed to fluctuating oil prices. With oil prices falling to sub-$30 from about $60 at the beginning of the year, Hibiscus’s stock price has also fallen by about 50% YTD – from around RM 1.00 to RM 0.45 (as of 5 April 2020).
https://preview.redd.it/3dqc4jraabr41.png?width=641&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ba0e8614c4e9d781edfc670016a874b90560684
https://preview.redd.it/lvdkrf0cabr41.png?width=356&format=png&auto=webp&s=46f250a713887b06986932fa475dc59c7c28582e
While the company is domiciled in Malaysia, its two main oil producing fields are located in both Malaysia and the UK. The Malaysian oil field is commonly referred to as the North Sabah field, while the UK oil field is commonly referred to as the Anasuria oil field. Hibiscus has licenses to other oil fields in different parts of the world, notably the Marigold/Sunflower oil fields in the UK and the VIC cluster in Australia, but its revenues and profits mainly stem from the former two oil producing fields.
Given that it’s a small player and has only two primary producing oil fields, it’s not surprising that Hibiscus sells its oil to a concentrated pool of customers, with 2 of them representing 80% of its revenues (i.e. Petronas and BP). Fortunately, both these customers are oil supermajors, and are unlikely to default on their obligations despite low oil prices.
At RM 0.45 per share, the market capitalization is RM 714.7m and it has a trailing PE ratio of about 5x. It doesn’t carry any debt, and it hasn’t paid a dividend in its listing history. The MD, Mr. Kenneth Gerard Pereira, owns about 10% of the company’s outstanding shares.

Reserves (Total recoverable oil) & Production (bbl/day)

To begin analyzing the company, it’s necessary to understand a little of the industry jargon. We’ll start with Reserves and Production.
In general, there are three types of categories for a company’s recoverable oil volumes – Reserves, Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources. Reserves are those oil fields which are “commercial”, which is defined as below:
As defined by the SPE PRMS, Reserves are “… quantities of petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable by application of development projects to known accumulations from a given date forward under defined conditions.” Therefore, Reserves must be discovered (by drilling, recoverable (with current technology), remaining in the subsurface (at the effective date of the evaluation) and “commercial” based on the development project proposed.)
Note that Reserves are associated with development projects. To be considered as “commercial”, there must be a firm intention to proceed with the project in a reasonable time frame (typically 5 years, and such intention must be based upon all of the following criteria:)
- A reasonable assessment of the future economics of the development project meeting defined investment and operating criteria; - A reasonable expectation that there will be a market for all or at least the expected sales quantities of production required to justify development; - Evidence that the necessary production and transportation facilities are available or can be made available; and - Evidence that legal, contractual, environmental and other social and economic concerns will allow for the actual implementation of the recovery project being evaluated.
Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources are further defined as below:
- Contingent Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets discovered volumes but is not (yet commercial (as defined above); and) - Prospective Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets as yet undiscovered volumes.
In the industry lingo, we generally refer to Reserves as ‘P’ and Contingent Resources as ‘C’. These ‘P’ and ‘C’ resources can be further categorized into 1P/2P/3P resources and 1C/2C/3C resources, each referring to a low/medium/high estimate of the company’s potential recoverable oil volumes:
- Low/1C/1P estimate: there should be reasonable certainty that volumes actually recovered will equal or exceed the estimate; - Best/2C/2P estimate: there should be an equal likelihood of the actual volumes of petroleum being larger or smaller than the estimate; and - High/3C/3P estimate: there is a low probability that the estimate will be exceeded.
Hence in the E&P industry, it is easy to see why most investors and analysts refer to the 2P estimate as the best estimate for a company’s actual recoverable oil volumes. This is because 2P reserves (‘2P’ referring to ‘Proved and Probable’) are a middle estimate of the recoverable oil volumes legally recognized as “commercial”.
However, there’s nothing stopping you from including 2C resources (riskier) or utilizing 1P resources (conservative) as your estimate for total recoverable oil volumes, depending on your risk appetite. In this instance, the company has provided a snapshot of its 2P and 2C resources in its analyst presentation:
https://preview.redd.it/o8qejdyc8br41.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3ab9be8f83badf0206adc982feda3a558d43e78
Basically, what the company is saying here is that by 2021, it will have classified as 2P reserves at least 23.7 million bbl from its Anasuria field and 20.5 million bbl from its North Sabah field – for total 2P reserves of 44.2 million bbl (we are ignoring the Australian VIC cluster as it is only estimated to reach first oil by 2022).
Furthermore, the company is stating that they have discovered (but not yet legally classified as “commercial”) a further 71 million bbl of oil from both the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, as well as the Marigold/Sunflower fields. If we include these 2C resources, the total potential recoverable oil volumes could exceed 100 million bbl.
In this report, we shall explore all valuation scenarios giving consideration to both 2P and 2C resources.
https://preview.redd.it/gk54qplf8br41.png?width=489&format=png&auto=webp&s=c905b7a6328432218b5b9dfd53cc9ef1390bd604
The company further targets a 2021 production rate of 20,000 bbl (LTM: 8,000 bbl), which includes 5,000 bbl from its Anasuria field (LTM: 2,500 bbl) and 7,000 bbl from its North Sabah field (LTM: 5,300 bbl).
This is a substantial increase in forecasted production from both existing and prospective oil fields. If it materializes, annual production rate could be as high as 7,300 mmbbl, and 2021 revenues (given FY20 USD/bbl of $60) could exceed RM 1.5 billion (FY20: RM 988 million).
However, this targeted forecast is quite a stretch from current production levels. Nevertheless, we shall consider all provided information in estimating a valuation for Hibiscus.
To understand Hibiscus’s oil production capacity and forecast its revenues and profits, we need to have a better appreciation of the performance of its two main cash-generating assets – the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field.

North Sabah oil field
https://preview.redd.it/62nssexj8br41.png?width=1003&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd78f86d51165fb9a93015e49496f7f98dad64dd
Hibiscus owns a 50% interest in the North Sabah field together with its partner Petronas, and has production rights over the field up to year 2040. The asset contains 4 oil fields, namely the St Joseph field, South Furious field, SF 30 field and Barton field.
For the sake of brevity, we shall not delve deep into the operational aspects of the fields or the contractual nature of its production sharing contract (PSC). We’ll just focus on the factors which relate to its financial performance. These are:
· Average uptime
· Total oil sold
· Average realized oil price
· Average OPEX per bbl
With regards to average uptime, we can see that the company maintains relative high facility availability, exceeding 90% uptime in all quarters of the LTM with exception of Jul-Sep 2019. The dip in average uptime was due to production enhancement projects and maintenance activities undertaken to improve the production capacity of the St Joseph and SF30 oil fields.
Hence, we can conclude that management has a good handle on operational performance. It also implies that there is little room for further improvement in production resulting from increased uptime.
As North Sabah is under a production sharing contract (PSC), there is a distinction between gross oil production and net oil production. The former relates to total oil drawn out of the ground, whereas the latter refers to Hibiscus’s share of oil production after taxes, royalties and expenses are accounted for. In this case, we want to pay attention to net oil production, not gross.
We can arrive at Hibiscus’s total oil sold for the last twelve months (LTM) by adding up the total oil sold for each of the last 4 quarters. Summing up the figures yields total oil sold for the LTM of approximately 2,075,305 bbl.
Then, we can arrive at an average realized oil price over the LTM by averaging the average realized oil price for the last 4 quarters, giving us an average realized oil price over the LTM of USD 68.57/bbl. We can do the same for average OPEX per bbl, giving us an average OPEX per bbl over the LTM of USD 13.23/bbl.
Thus, we can sum up the above financial performance of the North Sabah field with the following figures:
· Total oil sold: 2,075,305 bbl
· Average realized oil price: USD 68.57/bbl
· Average OPEX per bbl: USD 13.23/bbl

Anasuria oil field
https://preview.redd.it/586u4kfo8br41.png?width=1038&format=png&auto=webp&s=7580fc7f7df7e948754d025745a5cf47d4393c0f
Doing the same exercise as above for the Anasuria field, we arrive at the following financial performance for the Anasuria field:
· Total oil sold: 1,073,304 bbl
· Average realized oil price: USD 63.57/bbl
· Average OPEX per bbl: USD 23.22/bbl
As gas production is relatively immaterial, and to be conservative, we shall only consider the crude oil production from the Anasuria field in forecasting revenues.

Valuation (Method 1)

Putting the figures from both oil fields together, we get the following data:
https://preview.redd.it/7y6064dq8br41.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a4120563a011cf61fc6090e1cd5932602599dc2
Given that we have determined LTM EBITDA of RM 632m, the next step would be to subtract ITDA (interest, tax, depreciation & amortization) from it to obtain estimated LTM Net Profit. Using FY2020’s ITDA of approximately RM 318m as a guideline, we arrive at an estimated LTM Net Profit of RM 314m (FY20: 230m). Given the current market capitalization of RM 714.7m, this implies a trailing LTM PE of 2.3x.
Performing a sensitivity analysis given different oil prices, we arrive at the following net profit table for the company under different oil price scenarios, assuming oil production rate and ITDA remain constant:
https://preview.redd.it/xixge5sr8br41.png?width=433&format=png&auto=webp&s=288a00f6e5088d01936f0217ae7798d2cfcf11f2
From the above exercise, it becomes apparent that Hibiscus has a breakeven oil price of about USD 41.8863/bbl, and has a lot of operating leverage given the exponential rate of increase in its Net Profit with each consequent increase in oil prices.
Considering that the oil production rate (EBITDA) is likely to increase faster than ITDA’s proportion to revenues (fixed costs), at an implied PE of 4.33x, it seems likely that an investment in Hibiscus will be profitable over the next 10 years (with the assumption that oil prices will revert to the mean in the long-term).

Valuation (Method 2)

Of course, there are a lot of assumptions behind the above method of valuation. Hence, it would be prudent to perform multiple methods of valuation and compare the figures to one another.
As opposed to the profit/loss assessment in Valuation (Method 1), another way of performing a valuation would be to estimate its balance sheet value, i.e. total revenues from 2P Reserves, and assign a reasonable margin to it.
https://preview.redd.it/o2eiss6u8br41.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=03960cce698d9cedb076f3d5f571b3c59d908fa8
From the above, we understand that Hibiscus’s 2P reserves from the North Sabah and Anasuria fields alone are approximately 44.2 mmbbl (we ignore contribution from Australia’s VIC cluster as it hasn’t been developed yet).
Doing a similar sensitivity analysis of different oil prices as above, we arrive at the following estimated total revenues and accumulated net profit:
https://preview.redd.it/h8hubrmw8br41.png?width=450&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d23f0f9c3dafda89e758b815072ba335467f33e
Let’s assume that the above average of RM 9.68 billion in total realizable revenues from current 2P reserves holds true. If we assign a conservative Net Profit margin of 15% (FY20: 23%; past 5 years average: 16%), we arrive at estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion. Given the current market capitalization of RM 714 million, we might be able to say that the equity is worth about twice the current share price.
However, it is understandable that some readers might feel that the figures used in the above estimate (e.g. net profit margin of 15%) were randomly plucked from the sky. So how do we reconcile them with figures from the financial statements? Fortunately, there appears to be a way to do just that.
Intangible Assets
I refer you to a figure in the financial statements which provides a shortcut to the valuation of 2P Reserves. This is the carrying value of Intangible Assets on the Balance Sheet.
As of 2QFY21, that amount was RM 1,468,860,000 (i.e. RM 1.468 billion).
https://preview.redd.it/hse8ttb09br41.png?width=881&format=png&auto=webp&s=82e48b5961c905fe9273cb6346368de60202ebec
Quite coincidentally, one might observe that this figure is dangerously close to the estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion we calculated earlier. But why would this amount matter at all?
To answer that, I refer you to the notes of the Annual Report FY20 (AR20). On page 148 of the AR20, we find the following two paragraphs:
E&E assets comprise of rights and concession and conventional studies. Following the acquisition of a concession right to explore a licensed area, the costs incurred such as geological and geophysical surveys, drilling, commercial appraisal costs and other directly attributable costs of exploration and appraisal including technical and administrative costs, are capitalised as conventional studies, presented as intangible assets.
E&E assets are assessed for impairment when facts and circumstances suggest that the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount. The Group will allocate E&E assets to cash generating unit (“CGU”s or groups of CGUs for the purpose of assessing such assets for impairment. Each CGU or group of units to which an E&E asset is allocated will not be larger than an operating segment as disclosed in Note 39 to the financial statements.)
Hence, we can determine that firstly, the intangible asset value represents capitalized costs of acquisition of the oil fields, including technical exploration costs and costs of acquiring the relevant licenses. Secondly, an impairment review will be carried out when “the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount”, with E&E assets being allocated to “cash generating units” (CGU) for the purposes of assessment.
On page 169 of the AR20, we find the following:
Carrying amounts of the Group’s intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO are reviewed for possible impairment annually including any indicators of impairment. For the purpose of assessing impairment, assets are grouped at the lowest level CGUs for which there is a separately identifiable cash flow available. These CGUs are based on operating areas, represented by the 2011 North Sabah EOR PSC (“North Sabah”, the Anasuria Cluster, the Marigold and Sunflower fields, the VIC/P57 exploration permit (“VIC/P57”) and the VIC/L31 production license (“VIC/L31”).)
So apparently, the CGUs that have been assigned refer to the respective oil producing fields, two of which include the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field. In order to perform the impairment review, estimates of future cash flow will be made by management to assess the “recoverable amount” (as described above), subject to assumptions and an appropriate discount rate.
Hence, what we can gather up to now is that management will estimate future recoverable cash flows from a CGU (i.e. the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields), compare that to their carrying value, and perform an impairment if their future recoverable cash flows are less than their carrying value. In other words, if estimated accumulated profits from the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are less than their carrying value, an impairment is required.
So where do we find the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields? Further down on page 184 in the AR20, we see the following:
Included in rights and concession are the carrying amounts of producing field licenses in the Anasuria Cluster amounting to RM668,211,518 (2018: RM687,664,530, producing field licenses in North Sabah amounting to RM471,031,008 (2018: RM414,333,116))
Hence, we can determine that the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are RM 471m and RM 668m respectively. But where do we find the future recoverable cash flows of the fields as estimated by management, and what are the assumptions used in that calculation?
Fortunately, we find just that on page 185:
17 INTANGIBLE ASSETS (CONTINUED)
(a Anasuria Cluster)
The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for Anasuria Cluster during the current financial year. In the previous financial year, due to uncertainties in crude oil prices, the Group has assessed the recoverable amount of the intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO relating to the Anasuria Cluster. The recoverable amount is determined using the FVLCTS model based on discounted cash flows (“DCF” derived from the expected cash in/outflow pattern over the production lives.)
The key assumptions used to determine the recoverable amount for the Anasuria Cluster were as follows:
(i Discount rate of 10%;)
(ii Future cost inflation factor of 2% per annum;)
(iii Oil price forecast based on the oil price forward curve from independent parties; and,)
(iv Oil production profile based on the assessment by independent oil and gas reserve experts.)
Based on the assessments performed, the Directors concluded that the recoverable amount calculated based on the valuation model is higher than the carrying amount.
(b North Sabah)
The acquisition of the North Sabah assets was completed in the previous financial year. Details of the acquisition are as disclosed in Note 15 to the financial statements.
The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for North Sabah during the current financial year.
Here, we can see that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field was estimated based on a DCF of expected future cash flows over the production life of the asset. The key assumptions used by management all seem appropriate, including a discount rate of 10% and oil price and oil production estimates based on independent assessment. From there, management concludes that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field is higher than its carrying amount (i.e. no impairment required). Likewise, for the North Sabah field.
How do we interpret this? Basically, what management is saying is that given a 10% discount rate and independent oil price and oil production estimates, the accumulated profits (i.e. recoverable amount) from both the North Sabah and the Anasuria fields exceed their carrying amounts of RM 471m and RM 668m respectively.
In other words, according to management’s own estimates, the carrying value of the Intangible Assets of RM 1.468 billion approximates the accumulated Net Profit recoverable from 2P reserves.
To conclude Valuation (Method 2), we arrive at the following:

Our estimates Management estimates
Accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves RM 1.452 billion RM 1.468 billion

Financials

By now, we have established the basic economics of Hibiscus’s business, including its revenues (i.e. oil production and oil price scenarios), costs (OPEX, ITDA), profitability (breakeven, future earnings potential) and balance sheet value (2P reserves, valuation). Moving on, we want to gain a deeper understanding of the 3 statements to anticipate any blind spots and risks. We’ll refer to the financial statements of both the FY20 annual report and the 2Q21 quarterly report in this analysis.
For the sake of brevity, I’ll only point out those line items which need extra attention, and skip over the rest. Feel free to go through the financial statements on your own to gain a better familiarity of the business.
https://preview.redd.it/h689bss79br41.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed47fce6a5c3815dd3d4f819e31f1ce39ccf4a0b
Income Statement
First, we’ll start with the Income Statement on page 135 of the AR20. Revenues are straightforward, as we’ve discussed above. Cost of Sales and Administrative Expenses fall under the jurisdiction of OPEX, which we’ve also seen earlier. Other Expenses are mostly made up of Depreciation & Amortization of RM 115m.
Finance Costs are where things start to get tricky. Why does a company which carries no debt have such huge amounts of finance costs? The reason can be found in Note 8, where it is revealed that the bulk of finance costs relate to the unwinding of discount of provision for decommissioning costs of RM 25m (Note 32).
https://preview.redd.it/4omjptbe9br41.png?width=1019&format=png&auto=webp&s=eaabfc824134063100afa62edfd36a34a680fb60
This actually refers to the expected future costs of restoring the Anasuria and North Sabah fields to their original condition once the oil reserves have been depleted. Accounting standards require the company to provide for these decommissioning costs as they are estimable and probable. The way the decommissioning costs are accounted for is the same as an amortized loan, where the initial carrying value is recognized as a liability and the discount rate applied is reversed each year as an expense on the Income Statement. However, these expenses are largely non-cash in nature and do not necessitate a cash outflow every year (FY20: RM 69m).
Unwinding of discount on non-current other payables of RM 12m relate to contractual payments to the North Sabah sellers. We will discuss it later.
Taxation is another tricky subject, and is even more significant than Finance Costs at RM 161m. In gist, Hibiscus is subject to the 38% PITA (Petroleum Income Tax Act) under Malaysian jurisdiction, and the 30% Petroleum tax + 10% Supplementary tax under UK jurisdiction. Of the RM 161m, RM 41m of it relates to deferred tax which originates from the difference between tax treatment and accounting treatment on capitalized assets (accelerated depreciation vs straight-line depreciation). Nonetheless, what you should take away from this is that the tax expense is a tangible expense and material to breakeven analysis.
Fortunately, tax is a variable expense, and should not materially impact the cash flow of Hibiscus in today’s low oil price environment.
Note: Cash outflows for Tax Paid in FY20 was RM 97m, substantially below the RM 161m tax expense.
https://preview.redd.it/1xrnwzm89br41.png?width=732&format=png&auto=webp&s=c078bc3e18d9c79d9a6fbe1187803612753f69d8
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Hibiscus is unexciting; I’ll just bring your attention to those line items which need additional scrutiny. I’ll use the figures in the latest 2Q21 quarterly report (2Q21) and refer to the notes in AR20 for clarity.
We’ve already discussed Intangible Assets in the section above, so I won’t dwell on it again.
Moving on, the company has Equipment of RM 582m, largely relating to O&G assets (e.g. the Anasuria FPSO vessel and CAPEX incurred on production enhancement projects). Restricted cash and bank balances represent contractual obligations for decommissioning costs of the Anasuria Cluster, and are inaccessible for use in operations.
Inventories are relatively low, despite Hibiscus being an E&P company, so forex fluctuations on carrying value of inventories are relatively immaterial. Trade receivables largely relate to entitlements from Petronas and BP (both oil supermajors), and are hence quite safe from impairment. Other receivables, deposits and prepayments are significant as they relate to security deposits placed with sellers of the oil fields acquired; these should be ignored for cash flow purposes.
Note: Total cash and bank balances do not include approximately RM 105 m proceeds from the North Sabah December 2019 offtake (which was received in January 2020)
Cash and bank balances of RM 90m do not include RM 105m of proceeds from offtake received in 3Q21 (Jan 2020). Hence, the actual cash and bank balances as of 2Q21 approximate RM 200m.
Liabilities are a little more interesting. First, I’ll draw your attention to the significant Deferred tax liabilities of RM 457m. These largely relate to the amortization of CAPEX (i.e. Equipment and capitalized E&E expenses), which is given an accelerated depreciation treatment for tax purposes.
The way this works is that the government gives Hibiscus a favorable tax treatment on capital expenditures incurred via an accelerated depreciation schedule, so that the taxable income is less than usual. However, this leads to the taxable depreciation being utilized quicker than accounting depreciation, hence the tax payable merely deferred to a later period – when the tax depreciation runs out but accounting depreciation remains. Given the capital intensive nature of the business, it is understandable why Deferred tax liabilities are so large.
We’ve discussed Provision for decommissioning costs under the Finance Costs section earlier. They are also quite significant at RM 266m.
Notably, the Other Payables and Accruals are a hefty RM 431m. What do they relate to? Basically, they are contractual obligations to the sellers of the oil fields which are only payable upon oil prices reaching certain thresholds. Hence, while they are current in nature, they will only become payable when oil prices recover to previous highs, and are hence not an immediate cash outflow concern given today’s low oil prices.
Cash Flow Statement
There is nothing in the cash flow statement which warrants concern.
Notably, the company generated OCF of approximately RM 500m in FY20 and RM 116m in 2Q21. It further incurred RM 330m and RM 234m of CAPEX in FY20 and 2Q21 respectively, largely owing to production enhancement projects to increase the production rate of the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, which according to management estimates are accretive to ROI.
Tax paid was RM 97m in FY20 and RM 61m in 2Q21 (tax expense: RM 161m and RM 62m respectively).

Risks

There are a few obvious and not-so-obvious risks that one should be aware of before investing in Hibiscus. We shall not consider operational risks (e.g. uptime, OPEX) as they are outside the jurisdiction of the equity analyst. Instead, we shall focus on the financial and strategic risks largely outside the control of management. The main ones are:
· Oil prices remaining subdued for long periods of time
· Fluctuation of exchange rates
· Customer concentration risk
· 2P Reserves being less than estimated
· Significant current and non-current liabilities
· Potential issuance of equity
Oil prices remaining subdued
Of topmost concern in the minds of most analysts is whether Hibiscus has the wherewithal to sustain itself through this period of low oil prices (sub-$30). A quick and dirty estimate of annual cash outflow (i.e. burn rate) assuming a $20 oil world and historical production rates is between RM 50m-70m per year, which considering the RM 200m cash balance implies about 3-4 years of sustainability before the company runs out of cash and has to rely on external assistance for financing.
Table 1: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and exchange rates
https://preview.redd.it/gxnekd6h9br41.png?width=670&format=png&auto=webp&s=edbfb9621a43480d11e3b49de79f61a6337b3d51
The above table shows different EBITDA scenarios (RM ‘m) given different oil prices (left column) and USD:MYR exchange rates (top row). Currently, oil prices are $27 and USD:MYR is 1:4.36.
Given conservative assumptions of average OPEX/bbl of $20 (current: $15), we can safely say that the company will be loss-making as long as oil remains at $20 or below (red). However, we can see that once oil prices hit $25, the company can tank the lower-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 50m (orange), while at RM $27 it can sufficiently muddle through the higher-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 70m (green).
Hence, we can assume that as long as the average oil price over the next 3-4 years remains above $25, Hibiscus should come out of this fine without the need for any external financing.
Customer Concentration Risk
With regards to customer concentration risk, there is not much the analyst or investor can do except to accept the risk. Fortunately, 80% of revenues can be attributed to two oil supermajors (Petronas and BP), hence the risk of default on contractual obligations and trade receivables seems to be quite diminished.
2P Reserves being less than estimated
2P Reserves being less than estimated is another risk that one should keep in mind. Fortunately, the current market cap is merely RM 714m – at half of estimated recoverable amounts of RM 1.468 billion – so there’s a decent margin of safety. In addition, there are other mitigating factors which shall be discussed in the next section (‘Opportunities’).
Significant non-current and current liabilities
The significant non-current and current liabilities have been addressed in the previous section. It has been determined that they pose no threat to immediate cash flow due to them being long-term in nature (e.g. decommissioning costs, deferred tax, etc). Hence, for the purpose of assessing going concern, their amounts should not be a cause for concern.
Potential issuance of equity
Finally, we come to the possibility of external financing being required in this low oil price environment. While the company should last 3-4 years on existing cash reserves, there is always the risk of other black swan events materializing (e.g. coronavirus) or simply oil prices remaining muted for longer than 4 years.
Furthermore, management has hinted that they wish to acquire new oil assets at presently depressed prices to increase daily production rate to a targeted 20,000 bbl by end-2021. They have room to acquire debt, but they may also wish to issue equity for this purpose. Hence, the possibility of dilution to existing shareholders cannot be entirely ruled out.
However, given management’s historical track record of prioritizing ROI and optimal capital allocation, and in consideration of the fact that the MD owns 10% of outstanding shares, there is some assurance that any potential acquisitions will be accretive to EPS and therefore valuations.

Opportunities

As with the existence of risk, the presence of material opportunities also looms over the company. Some of them are discussed below:
· Increased Daily Oil Production Rate
· Inclusion of 2C Resources
· Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating
Increased Daily Oil Production Rate
The first and most obvious opportunity is the potential for increased production rate. We’ve seen in the last quarter (2Q21) that the North Sabah field increased its daily production rate by approximately 20% as a result of production enhancement projects (infill drilling), lowering OPEX/bbl as a result. To vastly oversimplify, infill drilling is the process of maximizing well density by drilling in the spaces between existing wells to improve oil production.
The same improvements are being undertaken at the Anasuria field via infill drilling, subsea debottlenecking, water injection and sidetracking of existing wells. Without boring you with industry jargon, this basically means future production rate is likely to improve going forward.
By how much can the oil production rate be improved by? Management estimates in their analyst presentation that enhancements in the Anasuria field will be able to yield 5,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 2,500 bbl/day).
Similarly, improvements in the North Sabah field is expected to yield 7,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 5,300 bbl/day).
This implies a total 2021 expected daily production rate from the two fields alone of 12,000 bbl/day (current: 8,000 bbl/day). That’s a 50% increase in yields which we haven’t factored into our valuation yet.
Furthermore, we haven’t considered any production from existing 2C resources (e.g. Marigold/Sunflower) or any potential acquisitions which may occur in the future. By management estimates, this can potentially increase production by another 8,000 bbl/day, bringing total production to 20,000 bbl/day.
While this seems like a stretch of the imagination, it pays to keep them in mind when forecasting future revenues and valuations.
Just to play around with the numbers, I’ve come up with a sensitivity analysis of possible annual EBITDA at different oil prices and daily oil production rates:
Table 2: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and daily oil production rates
https://preview.redd.it/jnpfhr5n9br41.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=bbe4b512bc17f576d87529651140cc74cde3d159
The left column represents different oil prices while the top row represents different daily oil production rates.
The green column represents EBITDA at current daily production rate of 8,000 bbl/day; the orange column represents EBITDA at targeted daily production rate of 12,000 bbl/day; while the purple column represents EBITDA at maximum daily production rate of 20,000 bbl/day.
Even conservatively assuming increased estimated annual ITDA of RM 500m (FY20: RM 318m), and long-term average oil prices of $50 (FY20: $60), the estimated Net Profit and P/E ratio is potentially lucrative at daily oil production rates of 12,000 bbl/day and above.
2C Resources
Since we’re on the topic of improved daily oil production rate, it bears to pay in mind the relatively enormous potential from Hibiscus’s 2C Resources. North Sabah’s 2C Resources alone exceed 30 mmbbl; while those from the yet undiagnosed Marigold/Sunflower fields also reach 30 mmbbl. Altogether, 2C Resources exceed 70 mmbbl, which dwarfs the 44 mmbbl of 2P Reserves we have considered up to this point in our valuation estimates.
To refresh your memory, 2C Resources represents oil volumes which have been discovered but are not yet classified as “commercial”. This means that there is reasonable certainty of the oil being recoverable, as opposed to simply being in the very early stages of exploration. So, to be conservative, we will imagine that only 50% of 2C Resources are eligible for reclassification to 2P reserves, i.e. 35 mmbbl of oil.
https://preview.redd.it/mto11iz7abr41.png?width=375&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9028ab0816b3d3e25067447f2c70acd3ebfc41a
This additional 35 mmbbl of oil represents an 80% increase to existing 2P reserves. Assuming the daily oil production rate increases similarly by 80%, we will arrive at 14,400 bbl/day of oil production. According to Table 2 above, this would yield an EBITDA of roughly RM 630m assuming $50 oil.
Comparing that estimated EBITDA to FY20’s actual EBITDA:
FY20 FY21 (incl. 2C) Difference
Daily oil production (bbl/day) 8,626 14,400 +66%
Average oil price (USD/bbl) $68.57 $50 -27%
Average OPEX/bbl (USD) $16.64 $20 +20%
EBITDA (RM ‘m) 632 630 -
Hence, even conservatively assuming lower oil prices and higher OPEX/bbl (which should decrease in the presence of higher oil volumes) than last year, we get approximately the same EBITDA as FY20.
For the sake of completeness, let’s assume that Hibiscus issues twice the no. of existing shares over the next 10 years, effectively diluting shareholders by 50%. Even without accounting for the possibility of the acquisition of new oil fields, at the current market capitalization of RM 714m, the prospective P/E would be about 10x. Not too shabby.
Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating
Hibiscus shares have recently been hit by a one-two punch from oil prices cratering from $60 to $30, as a result of both the Saudi-Russian dispute and depressed demand for oil due to coronavirus. This has massively increased supply and at the same time hugely depressed demand for oil (due to the globally coordinated lockdowns being implemented).
Given a long enough timeframe, I fully expect OPEC+ to come to an agreement and the economic effects from the coronavirus to dissipate, allowing oil prices to rebound. As we equity investors are aware, oil prices are cyclical and are bound to recover over the next 10 years.
When it does, valuations of O&G stocks (including Hibiscus’s) are likely to improve as investors overshoot expectations and begin to forecast higher oil prices into perpetuity, as they always tend to do in good times. When that time arrives, Hibiscus’s valuations are likely to become overoptimistic as all O&G stocks tend to do during oil upcycles, resulting in valuations far exceeding reasonable estimates of future earnings. If you can hold the shares up until then, it’s likely you will make much more on your investment than what we’ve been estimating.

Conclusion

Wrapping up what we’ve discussed so far, we can conclude that Hibiscus’s market capitalization of RM 714m far undershoots reasonable estimates of fair value even under conservative assumptions of recoverable oil volumes and long-term average oil prices. As a value investor, I hesitate to assign a target share price, but it’s safe to say that this stock is worth at least RM 1.00 (current: RM 0.45). Risk is relatively contained and the upside far exceeds the downside. While I have no opinion on the short-term trajectory of oil prices, I can safely recommend this stock as a long-term Buy based on fundamental research.
submitted by investorinvestor to SecurityAnalysis [link] [comments]

Weekly Forex Forecast 27th - 31st January 2020 Top 5 website to check Forex forecast and News Weekly Forex Forecast And Analysis - BEST UPCOMING TRADES ... Weekly Forex Forecast 23.05.- 29.05.2020 #forex #weeklyforexforecast Best FOREX System 2020 That Actually Works (91% Win-Rate ... Forex Time Forecasting Geometry Free Forex Signals  Best Forex Signals 2020  Weekly ... The Easiest Forex STRATEGY! You must watch! 🙄 - YouTube BEST Volatility indicators for forecasting forex trading? Forex: Top 2 Best Indicators / How to use them correctly ...

Forex Forecast, Foreign Exchange Daily Predictions with Smart Technical Market Analysis for Major Currency Exchange Rates View forex and gold market outlook predictions and analysis for the week ahead - covering the major currencies. Daily Free Forecast Friday, ‎November ‎06, ‎2020 EUR/USD BUY: 1.1843 TP: 1.1873 SL: 1.1803 Trading Range:1.1903 to 1.1803 USD/JPY SELL: 103.54 TP: 103.24 SL: 103.94 Honestly, in my opinion, it’s a waste of time and money relying on a forecasting site. You will do much better than them by simplifying your trading and sticking with trending currency pairs. On almost a daily basis you will find a couple of pairs... Copy Free Forex Signals From Millionaire Forex Trader With A HIGH Win Rate. We offer the BEST Free Forex signals. Copy our Forex signals now! Best for: Forex calendars. DailyFX is a free to use website powered by UK-based brokerage, IG. As you would expect from a broker-run site, it provides live market data for major currency pairs, with both simple view and detailed view charts for in-depth technical analysis. The site provides regularly updated financial news, which is easily filtered by market. You’ll find several articles per ... free simple strategy forex in all market read free strategy to trade forex .Best Free Forex Swing Trading Strategie best and free swing strategy. Likes ; Followers ; Followers ; Sign in Trending. Weekly Gold Forecast September 28 – October 02, 2020 ...

[index] [15502] [19430] [2215] [7470] [18785] [17776] [26722] [16229] [21526] [18485]

Weekly Forex Forecast 27th - 31st January 2020

The 4 forex strategies that every trader should know ! 🚨🚨Trading Performance 🚨🚨 Improve Your Trading Performance at our Fundamental Trading Academy https://w... In this final video of the Chart Reading Series I talk about a simple and powerful method to forecast changes in trend with simple geometry. FREE: 3 - Part Reversal Series - https://goo.gl/QKaxzV CHECK OUT: EAP Training Program - https://goo.gl/7RrMM5 JOIN: "Advanced Pattern Mastery Course" Waitin... Enjoy Forex Trading with the ChinEtti Pip Collector Extremely Powerful and Profitable Forex System with BUY/SELL Alerts! Get it here https://www.chinettif... Weekly Forex Forecast 23.05.- 29.05.2020 Learn to trade: https://www.becomingtraderfx.com Free weekly forex forecast video is posted every weekend. Make sure you subscribe to stay updated with ... Free Live Forex Signals 24/7 - EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY XUGUSD XAUUSD H1 Cas Lu Forex 49 watching Live now Weekly Forex Analysis & Forecast for Jan. 27 - 31, 2020 - Duration: 23:18. GET A 1-HOUR COACHING SESSION (WORTH $800) FOR FREE: https://philtrader.net/coaching JOIN THE ACADEMY: https://1percentfxacademy.com Hey guys, welcome to thi... The ATR Indicator Is The Single Best Indicator Forex Traders Can Have (Use It or Lose It) - Duration: 16:40. No Nonsense Forex 491,055 views Here are the top websites to check Forex forecast and news. for account management ,Forex signals and learning complete 0301.4020797 Download Your Free Forex Price Action Secrets Strategy Here - https://www.fxaceprosignals.com/report2020 Join our free telegram group here - https://t.me/fxa...

http://binaryoptiontrade.scumevex.cf