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Former investment bank FX trader: news trading and second order thinking

Former investment bank FX trader: news trading and second order thinking
Thanks to everyone who responded to the previous pieces on risk management. We ended up with nearly 2,000 upvotes and I'm delighted so many of you found it useful.
This time we're going to focus on a new area: reacting to and trading around news and fundamental developments.
A lot of people get this totally wrong and the main reason is that they trade the news at face value, without considering what the market had already priced in. If you've ever seen what you consider to be "good" or "better than forecast" news come out and yet been confused as the pair did nothing or moved in the opposite direction to expected, read on...
We are going to do this in two parts.
Part I
  • Introduction
  • Why use an economic calendar
  • How to read the calendar
  • Knowing what's priced in
  • Surveys
  • Rates decisions
  • First order thinking vs second order thinking

Introduction

Knowing how to use and benefit from the economic calendar is key for all traders - not just news traders.
In this chapter we are going to take a practical look at how to use the economic calendar. We are also going to look at how to interpret news using second order thinking.
The key concept is learning what has already been ‘priced in’ by the market so we can estimate how the market price might react to the new information.

Why use an economic calendar

The economic calendar contains all the scheduled economic releases for that day and week. Even if you purely trade based on technical analysis, you still must know what is in store.

https://preview.redd.it/20xdiq6gq4k51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=6cd47186db1039be7df4d7ad6782de36da48f1db
Why? Three main reasons.
Firstly, releases can help provide direction. They create trends. For example if GBPUSD has been fluctuating aimlessly within a range and suddenly the Bank of England starts raising rates you better believe the British Pound will start to move. Big news events often start long-term trends which you can trade around.
Secondly, a lot of the volatility occurs around these events. This is because these events give the market new information. Prior to a big scheduled release like the US Non Farm Payrolls you might find no one wants to take a big position. After it is released the market may move violently and potentially not just in a single direction - often prices may overshoot and come back down. Even without a trend this volatility provides lots of trading opportunities for the day trader.

https://preview.redd.it/u17iwbhiq4k51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=98ea8ed154c9468cb62037668c38e7387f2435af
Finally, these releases can change trends. Going into a huge release because of a technical indicator makes little sense. Everything could reverse and stop you out in a moment. You need to be aware of which events are likely to influence the positions you have on so you can decide whether to keep the positions or flatten exposure before the binary event for which you have no edge.
Most traders will therefore ‘scan’ the calendar for the week ahead, noting what the big events are and when they will occur. Then you can focus on each day at a time.

Reading the economic calendar


Most calendars show events cut by trading day. Helpfully they adjust the time of each release to your own timezone. For example we can see that the Bank of Japan Interest Rate decision is happening at 4am local time for this particular London-based trader.

https://preview.redd.it/lmx0q9qoq4k51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c6e9e1533b1ba236e51296de8db3be55dfa78ba1

Note that some events do not happen at a specific time. Think of a Central Banker’s speech for example - this can go on for an hour. It is not like an economic statistic that gets released at a precise time. Clicking the finger emoji will open up additional information on each event.

Event importance

How do you define importance? Well, some events are always unimportant. With the greatest of respect to Italian farmers, nobody cares about mundane releases like Italian farm productivity figures.
Other events always seem to be important. That means, markets consistently react to them and prices move. Interest rate decisions are an example of consistently high importance events.
So the Medium and High can be thought of as guides to how much each event typically affects markets. They are not perfect guides, however, as different events are more or less important depending on the circumstances.
For example, imagine the UK economy was undergoing a consumer-led recovery. The Central Bank has said it would raise interest rates (making GBPUSD move higher) if they feel the consumer is confident.
Consumer confidence data would suddenly become an extremely important event. At other times, when the Central Bank has not said it is focused on the consumer, this release might be near irrelevant.

Knowing what's priced in

Next to each piece of economic data you can normally see three figures. Actual, Forecast, and Previous.
  • Actual refers to the number as it is released.
  • Forecast refers to the consensus estimate from analysts.
  • Previous is what it was last time.
We are going to look at this in a bit more detail later but what you care about is when numbers are better or worse than expected. Whether a number is ‘good’ or ‘bad’ really does not matter much. Yes, really.

Once you understand that markets move based on the news vs expectations, you will be less confused by price action around events

This is a common misunderstanding. Say everyone is expecting ‘great’ economic data and it comes out as ‘good’. Does the price go up?
You might think it should. After all, the economic data was good. However, everyone expected it to be great and it was just … good. The great release was ‘priced in’ by the market already. Most likely the price will be disappointed and go down.
By priced in we simply mean that the market expected it and already bought or sold. The information was already in the price before the announcement.
Incidentally the official forecasts can be pretty stale and might not accurately capture what active traders in the market expect. See the following example.

An example of pricing in

For example, let’s say the market is focused on the number of Tesla deliveries. Analysts think it’ll be 100,000 this quarter. But Elon Musk tweets something that hints he’s really, really, really looking forward to the analyst call. Tesla’s price ticks higher after the tweet as traders put on positions, reflecting the sentiment that Tesla is likely to massively beat the 100,000. (This example is not a real one - it just serves to illustrate the concept.)

Tesla deliveries are up hugely vs last quarter ... but they are disappointing vs market expectations ... what do you think will happen to the stock?

On the day it turns out Tesla hit 101,000. A better than the officially forecasted result - sure - but only marginally. Way below what readers of Musk's twitter account might have thought. Disappointed traders may sell their longs and close out the positions. The stock might go down on ‘good’ results because the market had priced in something even better. (This example is not a real one - it just serves to illustrate the concept.)

Surveys

It can be a little hard to know what the market really expects. Often the published forecasts are stale and do not reflect what actual traders and investors are looking for.
One of the most effective ways is a simple survey of investors. Something like a Twitter poll like this one from CNBC is freely available and not a bad barometer.
CNBC, Bloomberg and other business TV stations often have polls on their Twitter accounts that let you know what others are expecting

Interest rates decisions

We know that interest rates heavily affect currency prices.
For major interest rate decisions there’s a great tool on the CME’s website that you can use.

See the link for a demo

This gives you a % probability of each interest rate level, implied by traded prices in the bond futures market. For example, in the case above the market thinks there’s a 20% chance the Fed will cut rates to 75-100bp.
Obviously this is far more accurate than analyst estimates because it uses actual bond prices where market participants are directly taking risk and placing bets. It basically looks at what interest rate traders are willing to lend at just before/after the date of the central bank meeting to imply the odds that the market ascribes to a change on that date.
Always try to estimate what the market has priced in. That way you have some context for whether the release really was better or worse than expected.

Second order thinking

You have to know what the market expects to try and guess how it’ll react. This is referred to by Howard Marks of Oaktree as second-level thinking. His explanation is so clear I am going to quote extensively.
It really is hard to improve on this clarity of thought:
First-level thinking is simplistic and superficial, and just about everyone can do it (a bad sign for anything involving an attempt at superiority). All the first-level thinker needs is an opinion about the future, as in “The outlook for the company is favorable, meaning the stock will go up.” Second-level thinking is deep, complex and convoluted.
Howard Marks
He explains first-level thinking:
The first-level thinker simply looks for the highest quality company, the best product, the fastest earnings growth or the lowest p/e ratio. He’s ignorant of the very existence of a second level at which to think, and of the need to pursue it.
Howard Marks
The above describes the guy who sees a 101,000 result and buys Tesla stock because - hey, this beat expectations. Marks goes on to describe second-level thinking:
The second-level thinker goes through a much more complex process when thinking about buying an asset. Is it good? Do others think it’s as good as I think it is? Is it really as good as I think it is? Is it as good as others think it is? Is it as good as others think others think it is? How will it change? How do others think it will change? How is it priced given: its current condition; how do I think its conditions will change; how others think it will change; and how others think others think it will change? And that’s just the beginning. No, this isn’t easy.
Howard Marks
In this version of events you are always thinking about the market’s response to Tesla results.
What do you think they’ll announce? What has the market priced in? Is Musk reliable? Are the people who bought because of his tweet likely to hold on if he disappoints or exit immediately? If it goes up at which price will they take profit? How big a number is now considered ‘wow’ by the market?
As Marks says: not easy. However, you need to start getting into the habit of thinking like this if you want to beat the market. You can make gameplans in advance for various scenarios.
Here are some examples from Marks to illustrate the difference between first order and second order thinking.

Some further examples
Trying to react fast to headlines is impossible in today’s market of ultra fast computers. You will never win on speed. Therefore you have to out-think the average participant.

Coming up in part II

Now that we have a basic understanding of concepts such as expectations and what the market has priced in, we can look at some interesting trading techniques and tools.
Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The trimming position effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases
Hope you enjoyed this note. As always, please reply with any questions/feedback - it is fun to hear from you.
***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: News trading and second order thinking part 2/2

Former investment bank FX trader: News trading and second order thinking part 2/2
Thanks for all the upvotes and comments on the previous pieces:
From the first half of the news trading note we learned some ways to estimate what is priced in by the market. We learned that we are trading any gap in market expectations rather than the result itself. A good result when the market expected a fantastic result is disappointing! We also looked at second order thinking. After all that, I hope the reaction of prices to events is starting to make more sense to you.

Before you understand the core concepts of pricing in and second order thinking, price reactions to events can seem mystifying at times
We'll add one thought-provoking quote. Keynes (that rare economist who also managed institutional money) offered this analogy. He compared selecting investments to a beauty contest in which newspaper readers would write in with their votes and win a prize if their votes most closely matched the six most popularly selected women across all readers:
It is not a case of choosing those (faces) which, to the best of one’s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those which average opinions genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.
Trading is no different. You are trying to anticipate how other traders will react to news and how that will move prices. Perhaps you disagree with their reaction. Still, if you can anticipate what it will be you would be sensible to act upon it. Don't forget: meanwhile they are also trying to anticipate what you and everyone else will do.

Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The trimming position effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases

Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases

The majority of releases are quantitative. All that means is there’s some number. Like unemployment figures or GDP.
Historic results provide interesting context. We are looking below the Australian unemployment rate which is released monthly. If you plot it out a few years back you can spot a clear trend, which got massively reversed. Knowing this trend gives you additional information when the figure is released. In the same way prices can trend so do economic data.

A great resource that's totally free to use
This makes sense: if for example things are getting steadily better in the economy you’d expect to see unemployment steadily going down.
Knowing the trend and how much noise there is in the data gives you an informational edge over lazy traders.
For example, when we see the spike above 6% on the above you’d instantly know it was crazy and a huge trading opportunity since a) the fluctuations month on month are normally tiny and b) it is a huge reversal of the long-term trend.
Would all the other AUDUSD traders know and react proportionately? If not and yet they still trade, their laziness may be an opportunity for more informed traders to make some money.
Tradingeconomics.com offers really high quality analysis. You can see all the major indicators for each country. Clicking them brings up their history as well as an explanation of what they show.
For example, here’s German Consumer Confidence.

Helpful context
There are also qualitative events. Normally these are speeches by Central Bankers.
There are whole blogs dedicated to closely reading such texts and looking for subtle changes in direction or opinion on the economy. Stuff like how often does the phrase "in a good place" come up when the Chair of the Fed speaks. It is pretty dry stuff. Yet these are leading indicators of how each member may vote to set interest rates. Ed Yardeni is the go-to guy on central banks.

Data surprise index

The other thing you might look at is something investment banks produce for their customers. A data surprise index. I am not sure if these are available in retail land - there's no reason they shouldn't be but the economic calendars online are very basic.
You’ll remember we talked about data not being good or bad of itself but good or bad relative to what was expected. These indices measure this difference.
If results are consistently better than analysts expect then you’ll see a positive number. If they are consistently worse than analysts expect a negative number. You can see they tend to swing from positive to negative.

Mean reversion at its best! Data surprise indices measure how much better or worse data came in vs forecast
There are many theories for this but in general people consider that analysts herd around the consensus. They are scared to be outliers and look ‘wrong’ or ‘stupid’ so they instead place estimates close to the pack of their peers.
When economic conditions change they may therefore be slow to update. When they are wrong consistently - say too bearish - they eventually flip the other way and become too bullish.
These charts can be interesting to give you an idea of how the recent data releases have been versus market expectations. You may try to spot the turning points in macroeconomic data that drive long term currency prices and trends.

Using recent events to predict future reactions

The market reaction function is the most important thing on an economic calendar in many ways. It means: what will happen to the price if the data is better or worse than the market expects?
That seems easy to answer but it is not.
Consider the example of consumer confidence we had earlier.
  • Many times the market will shrug and ignore it.
  • But when the economic recovery is predicated on a strong consumer it may move markets a lot.
Or consider the S&P index of US stocks (Wall Street).
  • If you get good economic data that beats analyst estimates surely it should go up? Well, sometimes that is certainly the case.
  • But good economic data might result in the US Central Bank raising interest rates. Raising interest rates will generally make the stock market go down!
So better than expected data could make the S&P go up (“the economy is great”) or down (“the Fed is more likely to raise rates”). It depends. The market can interpret the same data totally differently at different times.
One clue is to look at what happened to the price of risk assets at the last event.
For example, let’s say we looked at unemployment and it came in a lot worse than forecast last month. What happened to the S&P back then?

2% drop last time on a 'worse than expected' number ... so it it is 'better than expected' best guess is we rally 2% higher
So this tells us that - at least for our most recent event - the S&P moved 2% lower on a far worse than expected number. This gives us some guidance as to what it might do next time and the direction. Bad number = lower S&P. For a huge surprise 2% is the size of move we’d expect.
Again - this is a real limitation of online calendars. They should show next to the historic results (expected/actual) the reaction of various instruments.

Buy the rumour, sell the fact

A final example of an unpredictable reaction relates to the old rule of ‘Buy the rumour, sell the fact.’ This captures the tendency for markets to anticipate events and then reverse when they occur.

Buy the rumour, sell the fact
In short: people take profit and close their positions when what they expected to happen is confirmed.
So we have to decide which driver is most important to the market at any point in time. You obviously cannot ask every participant. The best way to do it is to look at what happened recently. Look at the price action during recent releases and you will get a feel for how much the market moves and in which direction.

Trimming or taking off positions

One thing to note is that events sometimes give smart participants information about positioning. This is because many traders take off or reduce positions ahead of big news events for risk management purposes.
Imagine we see GBPUSD rises in the hour before GDP release. That probably indicates the market is short and has taken off / flattened its positions.

The price action before an event can tell you about speculative positioning
If GDP is merely in line with expectations those same people are likely to add back their positions. They avoided a potential banana skin. This is why sometimes the market moves on an event that seemingly was bang on consensus.
But you have learned something. The speculative market is short and may prove vulnerable to a squeeze.

Two kinds of reversals

Fairly often you’ll see the market move in one direction on a release then turn around and go the other way.
These are known as reversals. Traders will often ‘fade’ a move, meaning bet against it and expect it to reverse.

Logical reversals

Sometimes this happens when the data looks good at first glance but the details don’t support it.
For example, say the headline is very bullish on German manufacturing numbers but then a minute later it becomes clear the company who releases the data has changed methodology or believes the number is driven by a one-off event. Or maybe the headline number is positive but buried in the detail there is a very negative revision to previous numbers.
Fading the initial spike is one way to trade news. Try looking at what the price action is one minute after the event and thirty minutes afterwards on historic releases.

Crazy reversals


Some reversals don't make sense
Sometimes a reversal happens for seemingly no fundamental reason. Say you get clearly positive news that is better than anyone expects. There are no caveats to the positive number. Yet the price briefly spikes up and then falls hard. What on earth?
This is a pure supply and demand thing. Even on bullish news the market cannot sustain a rally. The market is telling you it wants to sell this asset. Try not to get in its way.

Some key releases

As we have already discussed, different releases are important at different times. However, we’ll look at some consistently important ones in this final section.

Interest rates decisions

These can sometimes be unscheduled. However, normally the decisions are announced monthly. The exact process varies for each central bank. Typically there’s a headline decision e.g. maintain 0.75% rate.
You may also see “minutes” of the meeting in which the decision was reached and a vote tally e.g. 7 for maintain, 2 for lower rates. These are always top-tier data releases and have capacity to move the currency a lot.
A hawkish central bank (higher rates) will tend to move a currency higher whilst a dovish central bank (lower rates) will tend to move a currency lower.
A central banker speaking is always a big event

Non farm payrolls

These are released once per month. This is another top-tier release that will move all USD pairs as well as equities.
There are three numbers:
  • The headline number of jobs created (bigger is better)
  • The unemployment rate (smaller is better)
  • Average hourly earnings (depends)
Bear in mind these headline numbers are often off by around 75,000. If a report comes in +/- 25,000 of the forecast, that is probably a non event.
In general a positive response should move the USD higher but check recent price action.
Other countries each have their own unemployment data releases but this is the single most important release.

Surveys

There are various types of surveys: consumer confidence; house price expectations; purchasing managers index etc.
Each one basically asks a group of people if they expect to make more purchases or activity in their area of expertise to rise. There are so many we won’t go into each one here.
A really useful tool is the tradingeconomics.com economic indicators for each country. You can see all the major indicators and an explanation of each plus the historic results.

GDP

Gross Domestic Product is another big release. It is a measure of how much a country’s economy is growing.
In general the market focuses more on ‘advance’ GDP forecasts more than ‘final’ numbers, which are often released at the same time.
This is because the final figures are accurate but by the time they come around the market has already seen all the inputs. The advance figure tends to be less accurate but incorporates new information that the market may not have known before the release.
In general a strong GDP number is good for the domestic currency.

Inflation

Countries tend to release measures of inflation (increase in prices) each month. These releases are important mainly because they may influence the future decisions of the central bank, when setting the interest rate.
See the FX fundamentals section for more details.

Industrial data

Things like factory orders or or inventory levels. These can provide a leading indicator of the strength of the economy.
These numbers can be extremely volatile. This is because a one-off large order can drive the numbers well outside usual levels.
Pay careful attention to previous releases so you have a sense of how noisy each release is and what kind of moves might be expected.

Comments

Often there is really good stuff in the comments/replies. Check out 'squitstoomuch' for some excellent observations on why some news sources are noisy but early (think: Twitter, ZeroHedge). The Softbank story is a good recent example: was in ZeroHedge a day before the FT but the market moved on the FT. Also an interesting comment on mistakes, which definitely happen on breaking news, and can cause massive reversals.

submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

CMC Markets: is everything in CFDs? If so, how do the forward date ones work?

I just started a demo account with CMC Markets, and I was wondering if every single asset listed is traded as a CFD? When learning about forex from BabyPips I had the mentality as if I'm literally trading the currency; as in if it were in person, I'd be giving some coins in one currency and receiving another. I guess since CFDs are linear derivatives it doesn't matter as much, but I still feel like there are some additional considerations when trading CFDs vs "actual currency"? Also, what are the maturities on these? Are there even maturities? All the quotes just say "USD/CAD", "EUJPY" etc, but from my understanding of a CFD, you agree to pay the difference from actual and agreed, much like a future, so why are there no maturities?

Question 2: For CFDs on things like equity indices, they seem to trade the whole day unlike their underlying. Does this mean say at 9pm EST the S&P500 CFD is just people essentially betting on tomorrow's open? And again with the futures thing, does after-market hours trading in these CFDs affect the real opening price the next day? (If markets are efficient and we assume there are people watching CFD prices like future prices, and then tomorrow's early trades become based on what the futures markets seem to say about the S&P, holding news and other things constant).

Question 3: For CFDs with maturity dates like commodities on this platform, how does that work? Again, I'm mostly confused at how CFDs operate without maturities and how they different from futures. On the CMC markets platform, many agricultural commodities come with the suffixes like either "cash" or a maturity date, but currencies and equity indices do not. What does this mean? Those commodities I'm clicking trade on...am I trading a corn CFD? Or a CFD on corn futures? What exactly is the underlying mechanic?
Question 4: yet another example. For the bond indices...what am I looking at on the platform? I just want to get a chart of US treasury yields but I don't think that is available on CMC. What am I looking at when I click UK Gilt Cash or US T-Bond Cash or US T-Bond Jun 2020?

Tl;dr Don't understand the mechanics of CFDs and thus I'm not sure what EXACTLY I'm actually trading when I trade things like currency, equity indices, commodities. Surely I'm not actually trading a physical commodity or actual shares. Please note this is specific to CMC markets.
Thanks :)
submitted by fittyfive9 to Forex [link] [comments]

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  204. u_SummationNotations
  205. TwentyLetters_NoMore
  206. holdup
  207. SII
  208. DrewGooden
  209. Bloxburg
  210. DragonCity
  211. roblox
  212. LoomianLegacy
  213. u_torpmilk
  214. BadMUAs
  215. askwomenadvice
  216. redditeens
  217. cuteguys
  218. YEET
  219. potato
  220. blessedimages
  221. WeirdSubreddits
  222. u_JustAredditUser69
  223. prolife
  224. lebanon
  225. MinecraftMemes
  226. forhonormemes
  227. entitledparentsmemes
  228. bloodborne_memes
  229. nukedmemes
  230. The_Donald
  231. UnexpectedTF2
  232. NerdMasterislit
  233. HalfLife
  234. photography
  235. u_BobRoss_keepcrits
  236. dank_meme
  237. thedonald
  238. u_Kedi_The_Producer
  239. Polska
  240. redditcultures
  241. shitposting
  242. DestinyFashion
  243. bioniclelego
  244. balisong
  245. DuelLinks
  246. holdmylight
  247. EustachianTubeClick
  248. sexybionicles
  249. HyperX
  250. BreadTapedToTrees
  251. SoulCaliburCreations
  252. DestinyTheGame
  253. DestinyMemes
  254. pokecord
  255. fTeenagers
  256. MakeMeSuffer
  257. PokemonGoFriends
  258. overclocking
  259. wholesomegreentext
  260. u_Jeppebs02
  261. DuckyHub
  262. ani_bm
  263. 2meirl4meirl
  264. mathriddles
  265. lingling40hrs
  266. FortniteCompetitive
  267. DownvotedToOblivion
  268. u_assholicpizzoli
  269. retrogames
  270. youngadults
  271. CyburgerYT_Official
  272. JustSubbed
  273. TeenagersCircleJerk
  274. fuckyoujonah
  275. 2b2t
  276. Vegan_Food
  277. Feminism
  278. dontupdoottheemoji
  279. Snooverse
  280. Undertale
  281. beatsaber
  282. FuckCaillou
  283. u_mariomax2005
  284. LivestreamFail
  285. fortniteaccounts
  286. FreeKarma4U
  287. cakeday
  288. ReuseSchoolwork
  289. Note10Wallpaper
  290. MinecraftHelp
  291. S10wallpapers
  292. CableManagement
  293. TheGalaxyNote10
  294. MechanicalKeyboards
  295. subreddit
  296. 24hoursupport
  297. galaxynote
  298. audio
  299. unexpectedcommunism
  300. AllNighterArmy
  301. u_sikst33n
  302. shittyshowerthoughts
  303. ShowerThoughtsUL
  304. teenagersnewmusic
  305. modhelp
  306. TeenagersButBetter
  307. teenagersnew
  308. notinteresting
  309. Monstercat
  310. cursedcursedcomments
  311. thatsthejoke
  312. AskTeenGirls
  313. FIFA
  314. pennystocks
  315. u_MainRide
  316. u_voloxii
  317. perfectlycutscreams
  318. MrBeast
  319. geocaching
  320. YoungThug
  321. duolingomemes
  322. earlsweatshirt
  323. YoungPeoplePornhub
  324. u_SyrupOnWaffle_
  325. russ
  326. unexpectedmoisture
  327. RealAntiVaxMovement
  328. SandersForPresident
  329. Astroneer
  330. forbiddensnacks
  331. RosemountHighMN
  332. smoobypost
  333. HelicopterAddict
  334. Brawlstars
  335. Sino
  336. iamverybadass
  337. u_moohmad511
  338. TooMeIrlForMeIrl
  339. dontputyourdickinthat
  340. DokkanBattleCommunity
  341. BanPitBulls
  342. GameTheorists
  343. Homophobes
  344. MGTOW
  345. u_RC_G4m1ng
  346. horn
  347. wow
  348. feedthebeast
  349. creepyasterisks
  350. FoodPorn
  351. 5ToubunNoHanayome
  352. pewdiepie
  353. Diepio
  354. ZombielandSaga
  355. MCPE
  356. minecraftsuggestions
  357. Zebra1
  358. 1arbez
  359. BikiniBottomTwitter
  360. u_zeebbbrrrraaaaa1
  361. girlsfrontline
  362. HolUp
  363. hmm
  364. Memes_Of_The_Dank
  365. BeansInThings
  366. egg_irl
  367. schoolsuxrealbad
  368. Slipknot
  369. steelseries
  370. buildapcsales
  371. ClashRoyale
  372. MouseReview
  373. essential
  374. DarlingInTheFranxx
  375. redditmobile
  376. BattlelandsRoyale
  377. AskAnthropology
  378. AskBattlestations
  379. PSVR
  380. RocketLeagueExchange
  381. LogitechG
  382. XIM
  383. battlefield_one
  384. XiM4
  385. DHMIS
  386. Maximilianmus
  387. shittyrainbow6
  388. donniedarko
  389. SongMeanings
  390. indieheads
  391. DiagnoseMe
  392. FiftyFifty
  393. shitpostemblem
  394. Ooer
  395. Pasteurized
  396. StreetFighter
  397. Justfuckmyshitup
  398. United_Chads
  399. MakeNewFriendsHere
  400. Vans
  401. beetlejuicing
  402. Nicegirls
  403. u_AnthropomorphizedYak
  404. Gintama
  405. teengamingnights
  406. SwitchPirates
  407. SwitchHacks
  408. VaporwaveAesthetics
  409. imsorryjon
  410. u_DesuNyanNyan
  411. Im5andthisismacaroni
  412. DesuNyanNyan
  413. Weebagers
  414. me_irlgbt
  415. terriblefandommemes
  416. antimeme
  417. 2wholesome4meirl
  418. PUBGMobile
  419. Mi9T
  420. MSTF1
  421. EatCheapAndHealthy
  422. automationgame
  423. bugs
  424. InternetHistorian
  425. area43
  426. JonWinsTheThrone
  427. dogelore
  428. specializedtools
  429. trypophobia
  430. NIBBBA
  431. backrooms
  432. RBI
  433. BarryVsLarry
  434. mentalillness
  435. misanthropy
  436. DeepIntoYouTube
  437. phonewallpapers
  438. AccidentalRenaissance
  439. PanicAttack
  440. prozac
  441. ipfs
  442. ksi
  443. Sidemen
  444. FRC
  445. CookieClicker
  446. EnterTheGungeon
  447. SaddestCringe
  448. mildlyvagina
  449. fixit
  450. FullScorpion
  451. scpfuel
  452. nevertellmetheodds
  453. shittylifehacks
  454. DarkHumorAndMemes
  455. cat
  456. redditgolddigger
  457. freegold
  458. GoForGold
  459. animememes
  460. hentaidankmemes
  461. CoolBugFacts
  462. firetruckmostertruck
  463. u_Colek1127
  464. thechurchofpoppy
  465. weeatwasps
  466. moist_memes
  467. WeEatBees
  468. SonicTheHedgehog
  469. KDRAMA
  470. Airsoft_UK
  471. plymouth
  472. unexpecteditcrowd
  473. u_diabolicalb3ast
  474. thewalkingdead
  475. forhire
  476. bdoghomieg123
  477. ems
  478. Python
  479. WatchRedditDie
  480. MEOW_IRL
  481. Motocross
  482. Technoblade
  483. DarkJokeCentral
  484. BreadStapledToTrees
  485. u_sockmysocks
  486. deadbydaylight
  487. nocontextpics
  488. discgolf
  489. magicTCG
  490. Catsmirin
  491. astrophotography
  492. suspiciousquotes
  493. texts
  494. NASCAR
  495. androidroot
  496. hittableFaces
  497. FuckHomescapes
  498. HowToHack
  499. hacking
  500. shortcuts
  501. iOSsetups
  502. PixelGun
  503. Drugs
  504. iOSBeta
  505. JelBrek
  506. rage
  507. Sbubbyirl
  508. frogs
  509. Shittypokestops
  510. PokemonGoNewJersey
  511. Fishing
  512. MonsterHunterWorld
  513. friendsafari
  514. u_xProfessionalRetardx
  515. ThiccNibbaInc
  516. TheBoomerFamily
  517. ihavereddit
  518. playrust
  519. playrustcirclejerk
  520. theyknew
  521. JustCause
  522. pcpartpickerbuilds
  523. TechNope
  524. RandomQuestion
  525. nice
  526. LinusTechTips
  527. IdiotsFightingThings
  528. MensRights
  529. nocontext
  530. bootcamp
  531. Tendies
  532. SubsYouFellFor
  533. kauai
  534. electronics
  535. u_That_one_sander
  536. HowDoIRespondToThis
  537. MinecraftBuddies
  538. overlord
  539. MangaCollectors
  540. MeetPeople
  541. CreatorServices
  542. accidentalswastika
  543. slavelabour
  544. translator
  545. youtubestartups
  546. commandandconquer
  547. freesoftware
  548. handbrake
  549. prisonschool
  550. wholesome
  551. xbox
  552. supersmashbros
  553. 3Dmodeling
  554. NewTubers
  555. Scams
  556. netflix
  557. wiiu
  558. TVDetails
  559. notforspelunking
  560. Tetris99
  561. jakanddaxter
  562. u_B00tyC0nsumer69
  563. grissomhighschool
  564. nba
  565. MineralPorn
  566. Miniworlds
  567. theperfectpokemongame
  568. LAClippers
  569. wildbeef
  570. KeanuBeingAwesome
  571. rescuecats
  572. penguin
  573. Zoomies
  574. shiba
  575. Raccoons
  576. u_YeetVegetabales
  577. agt
  578. Davie504
  579. misfits
  580. HeistTeams
  581. TapTitans2
  582. Whataburger
  583. ATT
  584. TeensMeetTeens
  585. razer
  586. USAA
  587. Nitrotype
  588. AnaMains
  589. Shitstatistssay
  590. summonerswar
  591. DestinyLFG
  592. riverdale
  593. superpowereds
  594. Kakegurui
  595. EntitledPeople
  596. rutgers
  597. DragonballLegends
  598. OnePieceTC
  599. DBZDokkanBattle
  600. MortisGang
  601. gaybrosgonemild
  602. Tunisia
  603. YouTube_startups
  604. TwitterFollowers
  605. hackintosh
  606. twitter_memes
  607. YouTubePromoter
  608. SimCity
  609. weather
  610. LowSodiumDestiny
  611. IncreasinglyVerbose
  612. suddenlysexoffender
  613. absolutelynotme_irl
  614. 4PanelCringe
  615. Monk
  616. u_VeryWeirdHumanBeing
  617. thanksihateit
  618. MiniLadd
  619. flatearth
  620. bertstrips
  621. FortniteBattleRoyale
  622. ShrineOfJonesy
  623. custommagic
  624. China
  625. Rowing
  626. CardiganWelshCorgi
  627. GlobalOffensive
  628. AustralianShepherd
  629. montageparodies
  630. seltzer
  631. Hedgehog
  632. wallpaper
  633. TeenagersShitpost
  634. CallOfDuty
  635. ShadowBan
  636. TeensDebate
  637. PoliticalDiscussion
  638. Youbrokethechain
  639. MadeInAbyss
  640. grilledcheese
  641. DidntKnowIWantedThat
  642. httyd
  643. AvengersEndGame
  644. FortniteDisscusion
  645. Kaiserreich
  646. yesyesyesno
  647. puns
  648. u_andrew_982_
  649. orangesbeingbros
  650. geometrydash
  651. ilikemybeatsfast
  652. EmojiPolice
  653. BanVideoGames
  654. Telephoneism
  655. onewordeach
  656. TheRightCantMeme
  657. u_LegendGamer320
  658. Library
  659. BetaLands
  660. MortalKombat
  661. retrogaming
  662. nes
  663. Gameboy
  664. ClassicRock
  665. Tinder
  666. intotheshadowrealm
  667. highdeas
  668. AccidentalThanos
  669. shittymoviedetails
  670. trebuchetmemes
  671. TheOfficialPodcast
  672. Getdownmrpresident
  673. UnethicalLifeProTips
  674. talesfromcavesupport
  675. BattlefieldV
  676. UNCCharlotte
  677. Military
  678. Buddhism
  679. biology
  680. Blackrun
  681. single
  682. PostAndBanned
  683. PedoLogic
  684. wooooosh
  685. gaeilge
  686. woof_irl
  687. u_PeePeePooPooHead69
  688. csgo
  689. AskOujia
  690. YuB
  691. SubsIFellFor
  692. pokemonuranium
  693. familyguy
  694. u_yeetus-Antq
  695. TheOther14mil
  696. badteachers
  697. ExplainAGamePlotBadly
  698. u_mrbro1o1
  699. KrunkerIO
  700. dankmemes2
  701. shieldbro
  702. PSP
  703. collage
  704. Roms
  705. mormon
  706. dirtyvoicechat
  707. Internet
  708. NoFapChristians
  709. MinecraftOne
  710. minecraftseeds
  711. xboxone
  712. FuckMyShitUp
  713. PUBGXboxOne
  714. fourpanelcringe
  715. Dogfree
  716. CanadianHardwareSwap
  717. hardwareswap
  718. MinecraftCommands
  719. prusa3d
  720. Wealthsimple_Trade
  721. redbull
  722. IVBDA
  723. ac_newhorizons
  724. raresuicidebywords
  725. fourredditorsonecup
  726. unexpectedcannibalism
  727. airpods
  728. rimjob_steve
  729. flextapecantfixthat
  730. twentyonepilots
  731. DecreasinglyVerbose
  732. TheRealJoke
  733. UpvotedBecauseButt
  734. redditsings
  735. TwennyWunPilots
  736. iOSthemes
  737. subtleprequelmemes
  738. HarleyQuinn
  739. Niggawhat
  740. Shitty_Car_Mods
  741. subsithoughtifellfor
  742. Voltron
  743. epicmemes
  744. vancouver
  745. Warhammer40k
  746. PokemonXandY
  747. LooksLikeSlazo
  748. IamNumberFour
  749. swrpg
  750. MafiaCityMemes
  751. swtor
  752. RoyaleRecruit
  753. Vaping
  754. pan_media
  755. DestinyLore
  756. FortniteSucks
  757. fightporn
  758. themob
  759. u_GrizzyIy
  760. XXXTENTACION
  761. 4chan
  762. MusicForTeens
  763. tazman595
  764. karma
  765. school
  766. Cancersupportgroup
  767. cancer
  768. SeriousConversation
  769. PeopleAreFckinStupid
  770. JackSucksAtLife
  771. Why
  772. oddlyspecific
  773. oculus
  774. bookclapreviewclap
  775. FixMyPrint
  776. arduino
  777. EtikaRedditNetwork
  778. SmallWitDatHotFiya
  779. 465
  780. idklolihidsomething
  781. hmssss
  782. UsefulMemes
  783. calebfinn
  784. Animal
  785. randomactsofkindness
  786. shy
  787. TomHolland
  788. bulletjournal
  789. shittyfacebookmemes
  790. EmpireDidNothingWrong
  791. OculusQuest
  792. coincidence
  793. chairsunderwater
  794. DecaturHighschoolGA
  795. XXY
  796. Dyslexia
  797. uwutranslator
  798. ContestOfChampions
  799. UsernameChecksOut
  800. unexpectedtrivago
  801. wrongnumber
  802. venmo
  803. IllegalLifeProTips
  804. HitBoxPorn
  805. Shrek
  806. weirdnews
  807. specialed
  808. EndgameSpoilers
  809. specialeducation
  810. antivax
  811. AntiVaxxers
  812. u_purpleyellowpaint
  813. bi_irl
  814. sugarfreemua
  815. lanadelrey
  816. volleyball
  817. muacjdiscussion
  818. ThisButUnironically
  819. ShitLiberalsSay
  820. brokeabone
  821. discord_irl
  822. excitingdystopia
  823. BenBashiroLore
  824. VaushV
  825. ABoringDystopia
  826. FristOfAllHowDareYou
  827. hamsters
  828. SubredditSimMeta
  829. TropicalWeather
  830. Landlord
  831. AntifascistsofReddit
  832. hamstercare
  833. vexillologycirclejerk
  834. therewasnoattempt
  835. ennnnnnnnnnnnbbbbbby
  836. RealSolarSystem
  837. u_CondomCrusader69
  838. band
  839. FlexSealFanClub
  840. Armor
  841. MemeFormats
  842. Puberty
  843. conceptart
  844. CondomKingdom
  845. u_Some16yoLosr
  846. FireEmblemHeroes
  847. FondantLove
  848. LaCrescentMN
  849. u_PugMage101
  850. darkvideos
  851. u_Sadness92
  852. PERSoNA
  853. JacksFilms
  854. jschlatt
  855. castlevania
  856. stfuretard
  857. CloneWarsMemes
  858. DeepFried
  859. legostarwars
  860. u_DVproductions64
  861. KamikazeByWords
  862. ImGoingToHellForThis
  863. linuxmemes
  864. codes
  865. crypto
  866. cpp_questions
  867. Laptop
  868. debian
  869. Kalilinux
  870. PHP
  871. TOR
  872. Doomers
  873. learnpython
  874. RecRoom
  875. orbusvr
  876. VirtualDesktop
  877. bigscreen
  878. ProTubeVR
  879. VRchat
  880. OculusQuestModding
  881. Borderlands2
  882. DeathToBuzzfeed
  883. deadbabyjokes
  884. u_MCT1233
  885. kpop
  886. crystalclear
  887. GIDLE
  888. pokemongoyellow
  889. bidle
  890. unpopularkpopopinions
  891. HermitCraft
  892. ItHadToBeBrazil
  893. grian
  894. MumboJumboYouTube
  895. recycling
  896. usernamefamily
  897. BirdsArentReal
  898. u_Gay_Papa
  899. BSA
  900. u_ConsumeSyrup
  901. ModdedMinecraft
  902. ROBLOXmemes
  903. gangbeasts
  904. Discussion
  905. CrossCountry
  906. fuck
  907. FML
  908. TonightsBigLosers
  909. skeppy
  910. mcservers
  911. pussypassdenied
  912. backgrounds
  913. IsThereASubredditFor
  914. BulletHellMonday
  915. u_whyMYpeepeeGREEN
  916. marchingband
  917. TuberSimulator
  918. FosterTheCirclejerk
  919. GiftofGames
  920. deadmeatjames
  921. AshVsEvilDead
  922. GachaLifeCringe
  923. IntotheDarkHulu
  924. ChernobylMemes
  925. asl
  926. Hong_Kong
  927. vexillology
  928. imaginarymaps
  929. mountaindew
  930. SurrealApprovals
  931. Blessed_Images
  932. Metallica
  933. ainbow
  934. u_Mr-Damaged
  935. SmallYTChannel
  936. skype
  937. FamilyIssues
  938. FellowTeens
  939. MinecraftParodyMemes
  940. BloodyLegends
  941. DankMemes_Circlejerk
  942. cursedminecraftimages
  943. TeenagersUnrelatable
  944. reddeadfashion
  945. reddeadmemes
  946. itswooshwith2os
  947. phones
  948. Fishers
  949. Quizlet_Live_Raids
  950. CutePuppyPics
  951. u_Wakeless_place
  952. SeenElsewhere
  953. GreyStillPlays
  954. LazarBeam
  955. FUCKYOUINPARTICULAR
  956. stein_world
  957. perfectphotos
  958. PhoenixSC
  959. Crayfish
  960. MinecraftVsFortnite
  961. CallOfDutyWorldWarTwo
  962. hypixel
  963. videomemes
  964. KeanuReeves
  965. ubisoft
  966. jacksepticeye
  967. Filmora
  968. montreal
  969. ComradeSShow
  970. InsiderMemeTrading
  971. unnamedfanbase
  972. LoomianLegacyTrading
  973. AnimalCrossingNewLeaf
  974. AdoptMyVillager
  975. papermario
  976. Memeconomy
  977. TooCuteForPorn
  978. ben
  979. GTAV
  980. smplive
  981. galaxybuds
  982. AMCsAList
  983. TwitchClips
  984. Spellbreak
  985. QueerEye
  986. jesuschristouija
  987. u_randomflyingcars
  988. onebag
  989. networking
  990. Dappermemes
  991. CrazyIdeas
  992. hardware
  993. beagle
  994. BoomerTears
  995. keto
  996. european_dankmemes
  997. QuantumSubreddits
  998. TeenMomOGandTeenMom2
  999. WeightLossAdvice
  1000. RLFashionAdvice
  1001. MetalMemes
  1002. systemofadown
  1003. guitarcirclejerk
  1004. drums
  1005. Megadeth
  1006. weightlifting
  1007. gmod
  1008. avengedsevenfold
  1009. airsoftcirclejerk
  1010. paintball
  1011. arma
  1012. joinsquad
  1013. AOC
  1014. fakeobituary
  1015. fuckmanny
  1016. JustBeWhite
  1017. GODUS
  1018. fuckalinity
  1019. adventurerscodex
  1020. slavbot
  1021. Meme_Battles
  1022. u_Trollium2166
  1023. gtavcustoms
  1024. 350z
  1025. Hawaii
  1026. Scootering
  1027. skate3
  1028. bmx
  1029. arizona
  1030. Sunsets
  1031. projectcar
  1032. Mustang
  1033. snowboarding
  1034. Boxing
  1035. u_slyone05
  1036. gank
  1037. ForHonorWuLin
  1038. bruhfunny
  1039. ForHonorRants
  1040. ProjectJojo
  1041. ProGreenStarPlatinum
  1042. fanStands
  1043. nothingeverhappens
  1044. imveryedgy
  1045. stupidquestions
  1046. forhonorknights
  1047. UnexpectedForHonor
  1048. ShootingFishInABarrel
  1049. RubberSoulMains
  1050. JojoHFTF
  1051. UnexpectedJoJo
  1052. undetectedsabaton
  1053. Battlefield
  1054. MillenniumDawn
  1055. fightsticks
  1056. okuyasu_irl
  1057. Stepmania
  1058. WOOOOOOSHED
  1059. shigechi_appreciation
  1060. completelyrealtexts
  1061. SteamScams
  1062. Powerwolf
  1063. u_KindStrangerOnReddit
  1064. PvZHeroes
  1065. Fish
  1066. JuiceWRLD
  1067. Gatorade
  1068. SelfHate
  1069. UgandaKnuckles
  1070. depressed
  1071. walouija
  1072. WeirdQuites
  1073. askdoctors
  1074. u_White0000
  1075. TrollXChromosomes
  1076. NarutoBlazing
  1077. u_Datnotguy17
  1078. howtokeepanidiotbusy
  1079. AyyMD
  1080. Jreg
  1081. wheresMwaldo
  1082. Political_Tumor
  1083. Purdue
  1084. GamingDetails
  1085. Handwriting
  1086. CrossView
  1087. SharedBPM
  1088. test
  1089. Stonetossingjuice
  1090. PictureGame
  1091. explainabookplotbadly
  1092. DuwangGang
  1093. Meemagers
  1094. CallMeCarson
  1095. ToolJerk
  1096. cursedmemes
  1097. virtualbeggar
  1098. left4dead
  1099. bigbangedmemes
  1100. whatintarnation
  1101. comicbookcollecting
  1102. Trophies
  1103. u_lilsusnibba
  1104. subredditwithnorules
  1105. homestuck
  1106. lux
  1107. TeamfightTactics
  1108. Wukongmains
  1109. LeagueofFailures
  1110. LeagueOfMemes
  1111. ezrealmains
  1112. akalimains
  1113. yuumimains
  1114. YIMO
  1115. botlanetinder
  1116. supportlol
  1117. MordekaiserMains
  1118. YasuoMains
  1119. neekomains
  1120. ApheliousMains
  1121. LEMMiNO
  1122. space
  1123. wwiipics
  1124. u_alt_1236
  1125. FiftyFiftyDev
  1126. MercyClub
  1127. Normies
  1128. wooooshwith4os
  1129. DungeonsAndDragons
  1130. spongebob
  1131. FromTheDepths
  1132. SpaceflightSimulator
  1133. BeardedDragons
  1134. Spore
  1135. TeenAstronomy
  1136. HistoryPorn
  1137. u_OneStrikeyBoi
  1138. tylerthecreator
  1139. PictureRap
  1140. CryptoftheNecrodancer
  1141. Teens4Teens
  1142. freenagers
  1143. RamenRegime
  1144. SemenTeam
  1145. Pitland
  1146. insaneparents
  1147. 90DayFiance
  1148. Chinesetourists
  1149. interracialdating
  1150. PutAnEggOnIt
  1151. drawings
  1152. u_kayasphotographs
  1153. mildlycreepy
  1154. likeothergirls
  1155. kahootgames
  1156. PoliticalCompassMemes
  1157. mood
  1158. cfbsober
  1159. TIGoogled
  1160. fsusports
  1161. rolltide
  1162. NewYorkMets
  1163. HuntsvilleAlabama
  1164. nfl
  1165. minnesotavikings
  1166. KarmaCourt
  1167. CFBOffTopic
  1168. Teenageers
  1169. 3BeansAndABeerCap
  1170. popheadscirclejerk
  1171. PuppySmiles
  1172. Komi_san
  1173. freebies
  1174. zerowondering
  1175. 177013
  1176. untrustworthypoptarts
  1177. subredditcancer
  1178. SubwayHentai
  1179. TsundereSharks
  1180. bee_irl
  1181. banned
  1182. LGBTOpenModmail
  1183. u_Rulx8
  1184. The_Dedede
  1185. NintendoWaifus
  1186. pchelp
  1187. SweetHomeAlabama
  1188. SmallYoutubers
  1189. Advertise
  1190. Suddenlybabyimyours
  1191. Lolitary
  1192. PornoMemes
  1193. clevercomebacks
  1194. SpaceMemes
  1195. TankPorn
  1196. AbandonedPorn
  1197. Hbonds
  1198. Jewdank
  1199. LiveLikeLarry
  1200. birdswitharms
  1201. SchoolSystemBroke
  1202. popping
  1203. okboomerretard
  1204. plants
  1205. PhonesAreBad
  1206. SavageGarden
  1207. airplaneears
  1208. shutthefuckup
  1209. mermaids
  1210. OriginalCharacters
  1211. tuckedinkitties
  1212. RoastMyCat
  1213. curledfeetsies
  1214. Hellenism
  1215. yandere_simulator
  1216. catsareliquid
  1217. trichotillomania
  1218. lazarbeamsubmissions
  1219. dark_humor
  1220. fucksauerkraut
  1221. TheBeatles
  1222. produce
  1223. French
  1224. LilPeep
  1225. GitCommitDie
  1226. u_Brisingr_105
  1227. MarioMaker
  1228. gamingsuggestions
  1229. animation
  1230. FortniteCreative
  1231. ShrineOfFishstick
  1232. FortNiteMobile
  1233. FortniteSwitch
  1234. mariokart
  1235. u_Rodolfo20
  1236. jordancambridge
  1237. emu
  1238. beermoney
  1239. badminton
  1240. vlone
  1241. TimHortons
  1242. Repsneakers
  1243. TakashiMurakami
  1244. stamps
  1245. yeezys
  1246. DesignerReps
  1247. Rabbits
  1248. DesignMyRoom
  1249. LegitCheck
  1250. Hypebeasts
  1251. Bape
  1252. bapeheads
  1253. kaws
  1254. painting
  1255. vintage
  1256. insects
  1257. fossilid
  1258. Crystals
  1259. u_HanzAAli
  1260. PixelPeople
  1261. lifeisnotjust
  1262. RedditTrollss
  1263. notsureifgoodadvice
  1264. speedrun
  1265. gtavmodding
  1266. JJBA
  1267. whoooosh
  1268. Conrandom
  1269. Birbs
  1270. u_trash5652
  1271. BattleJackets
  1272. guitarlessons
  1273. virginvschad
  1274. Ghostbc
  1275. oldinternet
  1276. Moomins
  1277. Shuffles_Deck
  1278. Vent
  1279. Sims4
  1280. ShittyAdverts
  1281. saudiarabia
  1282. stopsmoking
  1283. ProRevenge
  1284. yaris
  1285. carporn
  1286. u_ThePinkPanda205
  1287. MadeOfStyrofoam
  1288. 5sos
  1289. GAAB350
  1290. formuladank
  1291. xqcow
  1292. whatsthisworth
  1293. GenZ
  1294. danduscirclejerk
  1295. andyterracianofanclub
  1296. radicalcentrism
  1297. killthosewhodisagree
  1298. onlinemischief
  1299. aromantic
  1300. u_TheAceOfToasters
  1301. javahelp
  1302. TheArcana
  1303. AquaticAsFuck
  1304. JohnMulaney
  1305. Assistance
  1306. doodles
  1307. sadcats
  1308. April11Gang
  1309. tomodachilife
  1310. Chonkers
  1311. Multicopter
  1312. ElectricSkateboarding
  1313. subaru
  1314. radiocontrol
  1315. Battlecars
  1316. CafeRacers
  1317. Jeep
  1318. AwesomeCarMods
  1319. rccars
  1320. whatsthissnake
  1321. CalamariRaceTeam
  1322. HotWheels
  1323. outrun
  1324. FPVvideos
  1325. PraiseTheCameraMan
  1326. saladsmiles
  1327. MobileGaming
  1328. techhelp
  1329. Competitiveoverwatch
  1330. Boblin
  1331. PlayINGRust
  1332. WarframeRunway
  1333. u_haggartt
  1334. earthbound
  1335. VizzedGames
  1336. OldReposts
  1337. misheard
  1338. area51
  1339. sharktank
  1340. awesome
  1341. u_PragatiBuffett
  1342. mediawiki
  1343. robertdowneyjr
  1344. JoJoMemes
  1345. u_Gameman740
  1346. ExpandDong
  1347. KarmaSacrifice
  1348. Minecraftbuilds
  1349. Foodlottery
  1350. MisfitShitposts
  1351. JellesMarbleRuns
  1352. Marblelympics
  1353. u_Donghoon
  1354. DhruvTheKid
  1355. RushWars
  1356. RicoGang
  1357. The4KMegaBox
  1358. shittybrawlstars
  1359. SmashLand
  1360. Cosmic_Clash
  1361. barleygang
  1362. DrMarioWorld
  1363. Archero
  1364. golfblitz
  1365. TickGang
  1366. NewSkaters
  1367. TheLetterH
  1368. Crushes
  1369. KarmaRoulette
  1370. u_Manasveer
  1371. UnexpectedThanos
  1372. depression_memes
  1373. u_Banapple101
  1374. drphil
  1375. ShittyPhotoshop
  1376. ft86
  1377. iilluminaughtii
  1378. showerthoughs
  1379. TheBrotherhoodofBros
  1380. MyBloodyValentine
  1381. SamandTolki
  1382. radiohead
  1383. radioheadcirclejerk
  1384. rantgrumps
  1385. googletranslate
  1386. ConspiracyGrumps
  1387. shoegaze
  1388. MichaelJackson
  1389. ClubPenguin
  1390. Toontown
  1391. rumney_marsh_academy
  1392. saplings
  1393. Pomade
  1394. playboicarti
  1395. Adorable_Animals
  1396. OverwatchUniversity
  1397. u_IOPasGhoulTrooper
  1398. CitadelOfSkins
  1399. heathernotpleased
  1400. comingout
  1401. ShitFortNiteBRSays
  1402. fortniteparentsclub
  1403. Cello
  1404. Golfwang
  1405. EveryoneIsAMod
  1406. LightModePatrol
  1407. JadenSmith
  1408. SuddenlyHitler
  1409. FilthyFrank
  1410. VeronaNJ
  1411. evilbuildings
  1412. cursedvideos
  1413. danktintinmemes
  1414. AwardSpeechEdits
  1415. AgainstHateSubreddits
  1416. deepweb
  1417. TeenagersTalkPolitics
  1418. shortcels
  1419. CURRENCY
  1420. WarriorCats
  1421. thedawnpatrol
  1422. upvote
  1423. theydidthemonstermath
  1424. u_ii_karmakun_ii
  1425. HumanTippyTaps
  1426. SamePicOfSteveHarvey
  1427. onionhate
  1428. redbubble
  1429. Tennessee
  1430. singapore
  1431. NuclearRevenge
  1432. JUSTNOMIL
  1433. jesuschristreddit
  1434. FlashTV
  1435. LegendsOfTomorrow
  1436. westworld
  1437. boringdystopia
  1438. dankjewishmemes
  1439. crazystories
  1440. calculators
  1441. LatinoPeopleTwitter
  1442. Dachshund
  1443. AdrenalinePorn
  1444. Dance
  1445. u_Santolmo
  1446. hardwaregore
  1447. dankgentina
  1448. fake90skids
  1449. reactionpics
  1450. ImagesYouCanHear
  1451. tf2shitposterclub
  1452. Nightmares
  1453. themonkeysotherpaw
  1454. transpositive
  1455. FifaCareers
  1456. PremierLeague
  1457. spiders
  1458. downvotesreally
  1459. coldshowers
  1460. puppy101
  1461. chanceme
  1462. trackandfield
  1463. architecture
  1464. orlando
  1465. ACT
  1466. YeetingKids
  1467. ParentsAreFuckingDumb
  1468. peopleofwalmart
  1469. donaldtrump
  1470. aethism
  1471. Relatable_RC
  1472. NewVegasMemes
  1473. CursedMinecraft
  1474. Area51memes
  1475. admincraft
  1476. fnv
  1477. humblebundles
  1478. blackmagicdesign
  1479. Crouton
  1480. promotereddit
  1481. itplaysit
  1482. youtubecomments
  1483. Ebay
  1484. gamecollecting
  1485. smashmemes
  1486. Mordhau
  1487. namenerds
  1488. greatpyrenees
  1489. sexyoffbrands
  1490. bottlephilia
  1491. u_limeylucio
  1492. sodapoppin
  1493. feminazi
  1494. yiffinhell
  1495. gravityfallsmemes
  1496. rmeme
  1497. u_I_am_Inevitable_Boi
  1498. awardbrag
  1499. redstone
  1500. Lightmodevsdark
  1501. PunPatrol
  1502. CrazyHand
  1503. e46
  1504. EngineBuilding
  1505. E46M3
  1506. Cartalk
  1507. KarmaConspiracy
  1508. MobileWallpaper
  1509. firstworldanarchists
  1510. Tabs
  1511. apolloapp
  1512. futurama
  1513. puzzles
  1514. SundaraKarma
  1515. Dreamers
  1516. programminghelp
  1517. firebrigade
  1518. drumcorpscirclejerk
  1519. fonts
  1520. OverwatchLeague
  1521. ChurchofFroppy
  1522. webhosting
  1523. Wordpress
  1524. PlantsVSZombies
  1525. StreetOutlaws
  1526. lgv30
  1527. Parents
  1528. MarioMaker2
  1529. TheWeeknd
  1530. u_Mind_The_PePe
  1531. DDLCMods
  1532. parrots
  1533. donthelpjustfilm
  1534. AccidentalRacism
  1535. u_Jimcuchim
  1536. Teachers
  1537. Amberlynn
  1538. TaylorSwift
  1539. UnlockedRedditAds
  1540. GTBAE
  1541. TouchThaFishy
  1542. That70sRetard
  1543. Indiana
  1544. ARK
  1545. shitpostbound
  1546. Philippines
  1547. DoctorBright
  1548. goodboys
  1549. blop
  1550. ThatsWhatSheSaid
  1551. watch_dogs
  1552. unexpectedoffice
  1553. birthofasub
  1554. unexpectedskyrim
  1555. Peopleoftwitch
  1556. ModSupport
  1557. CoolPetNames
  1558. amazonreviews
  1559. TwoRedditorsOneCup
  1560. CameHereToSayThis
  1561. WOSH
  1562. smartwatch
  1563. Reddit69420
  1564. u_Its-Ya-Boi-Satan
  1565. Boomer
  1566. InstaPoliceHere
  1567. FanStorytime
  1568. stories
  1569. bullying
  1570. MachineLearning
  1571. redsox
  1572. PrettyGirls
  1573. ChickenRunsAtMidnight
  1574. LimeOfTheCentury
  1575. SnapLenses
  1576. IRLEasterEggs
  1577. garfield
  1578. OkBubbyRetard
  1579. Ascendedfaketexts
  1580. matt
  1581. Patriots
  1582. nonutnovember
  1583. u_u-u_u-u_u
  1584. HeadphoneAdvice
  1585. SequelMemes
  1586. u_2006pow
  1587. YeetlordYT
  1588. CarlTheHedgehog
  1589. tall
  1590. aftergifted
  1591. EUR_irl
  1592. teenmartialarts
  1593. FostTalicska
  1594. u_Hm_Moonlight
  1595. MildlyVandalised
  1596. PhantomForces
  1597. OfficialSlazo
  1598. AJR
  1599. pokemongotrades
  1600. FreePlatinum
  1601. SnowTheGame
  1602. ggggg
  1603. GayTeensGoneMild
  1604. ruralporn
  1605. CityPorn
  1606. Surface
  1607. flightsim
  1608. AndroidWear
  1609. u_GamerWick
  1610. Myles_is_lonely
  1611. u_lesqie
  1612. UnexpectedHamilton
  1613. ComedySeasoning
  1614. AmateurPhotography
  1615. oldpeoplefacebook
  1616. Ticos
  1617. LemonySnicket
  1618. accidentalswastica
  1619. VACCINES
  1620. nealstephenson
  1621. sexualhealth
  1622. Forgotten_Realms
  1623. makeaband
  1624. AskLosAngeles
  1625. musicians
  1626. Guiltygear
  1627. MyHeroAcademiaRPG
  1628. AdventurersLeague
  1629. sallyface
  1630. TikTokCringe
  1631. darkmemes
  1632. EntitledBitch
  1633. Trufemcels
  1634. sad
  1635. PanPorn
  1636. BeautyBoxes
  1637. Ipsy
  1638. u_cottonorwool
  1639. pcmusic
  1640. intermittentfasting
  1641. angry
  1642. socialanxiety
  1643. u_Jumpspider74
  1644. cowboys
  1645. Mavericks
  1646. dolphinconspiracy
  1647. rule34
  1648. ImaginaryHorrors
  1649. DarkDeception
  1650. fuckea
  1651. u_pupperoni-421
  1652. coloringcorruptions
  1653. fbla
  1654. Amd
  1655. ChivalryGame
  1656. DrDisrespectLive
  1657. intel
  1658. esports
  1659. G502MasterRace
  1660. drumcorps
  1661. HeartHorny
  1662. u_crusty_bread_crust
  1663. holesome
  1664. oddlypacific
  1665. maths
  1666. demons
  1667. Physics
  1668. MusicianTeens
  1669. teenagerswithoutrules
  1670. DontPutItInYourAss
  1671. vro
  1672. traadustCrusaders
  1673. yugioh
  1674. BleachBraveSouls
  1675. okayfacebookmemes
  1676. realdonald_forreal
  1677. berserklejerk
  1678. Berserk
  1679. mangarockapp
  1680. MotorcyclePorn
  1681. ExNoContact
  1682. forza
  1683. Thunder
  1684. nbacirclejerk
  1685. ShitMomGroupsSay
  1686. strangehabits
  1687. madladcrusaders
  1688. u_ThatBoi1994
  1689. RedDeadOnline
  1690. u_WitnessMe015
  1691. communism
  1692. AgeplayPenPals
  1693. Poem_for_your_sprog
  1694. Polytopia
  1695. KingdomsandCastles
  1696. u_tarka_d0_sera
  1697. catfaceplant
  1698. AskQuija
  1699. educationalgifs
  1700. Rubiks_Cubes
  1701. u_WCon69
  1702. PoliticalMemes
  1703. Corridor
  1704. postprocessing
  1705. askspain
  1706. Svenska
  1707. buffy
  1708. newjersey
  1709. succulents
  1710. learnspanish
  1711. kimbra
  1712. blackmirror
  1713. john
  1714. asklaw
  1715. CardiB
  1716. ForeverAloneDating
  1717. BruceCampbell
  1718. deadrising
  1719. police
  1720. thebeachboys
  1721. LeavingNeverlandLies
  1722. LeavingNeverlandHBO
  1723. LeavingNeverland
  1724. ForeverAlone
  1725. DownRightAwesome
  1726. ThanosMC
  1727. BigBirdCult
  1728. Fantaisgood
  1729. letsbone
  1730. SuddenlyAnimalAbuse
  1731. G59
  1732. Bexey
  1733. Tupac
  1734. bangladesh
  1735. bodybuilding
  1736. GymMemes
  1737. CowbellyTV
  1738. u_canineswine
  1739. TeenStyle
  1740. short
  1741. BossfightUniverse
  1742. WallpaperRequests
  1743. ibxtoycat
  1744. toycat
  1745. RareEmojis
  1746. expectedSpaceBalls
  1747. shittymcsuggestions
  1748. PokemonGOMemes
  1749. grandayy
  1750. grandpajoehate
  1751. deadmeatmemes
  1752. FanTheories
  1753. CrusadeMemes
  1754. redneckelonmusk
  1755. canconfirmimanaussie
  1756. unexpectedtfs
  1757. SubsIWishWereReal
  1758. iFunny
  1759. wallpapers
  1760. rasdash
  1761. opensource
  1762. raspberry_pi
  1763. grandrapids
  1764. thegrandtour
  1765. DeepFriedLinuxMemes
  1766. Michigan
  1767. Spongebuntu
  1768. Health
  1769. stylish
  1770. supercars
  1771. Autos
  1772. StuffOnCats
  1773. 2healthbars
  1774. mazda
  1775. amishadowbanned
  1776. toronto
  1777. canada
  1778. freevbucks
  1779. AntiAntiAntiAntiJokes
  1780. antiantiantijokes
  1781. Birthdaytwins
  1782. mildyinteresting
  1783. yesyesyesyesyesnoyes
  1784. tifurb
  1785. RoastMyHistory
  1786. badpuns
  1787. Rainforest
  1788. u_EnderCreep72
  1789. TheOutsiders
  1790. JohnWick
  1791. starbase
  1792. GTA
  1793. bully
  1794. MMA
  1795. karate
  1796. india
  1797. StreetFights
  1798. NoglaOfficial
  1799. burgers
  1800. PeterExplainsTheJoke
  1801. amateur_boxing
  1802. Jasiah
  1803. travisscott
  1804. FortnitePhotography
  1805. LilNasX
  1806. FortniteLeaks
  1807. CallMeKevin
  1808. Idubbbz
  1809. memesofthedank
  1810. u_nibbapusspuss69
  1811. FloridaMemes
  1812. Avengers
  1813. cursedjojo
  1814. Csgohacks
  1815. u_insane_playzYT
  1816. SimplyFortnite
  1817. TeachersRFuckingDum
  1818. django
  1819. amipregnant
  1820. IncelTeens
  1821. fuck_r_teenagers
  1822. wherestheredcircle
  1823. MURICA
  1824. SrGrafo
  1825. dev_ed
  1826. TheFutureIsWomen
  1827. TheFutureIsWoman
  1828. TheFutureIsMale
  1829. wewantpornofthis
  1830. BothSidesPolitics
  1831. iamverybedass
  1832. uneducatedopinions
  1833. webdev
  1834. perfectlycutspurts
  1835. u_msterchief82
  1836. hemitite
  1837. ArakiForgot
  1838. SubtoPewDiePieMC
  1839. BirdsForScale
  1840. aLOTofKARMAindays
  1841. honeygetmygun
  1842. thirdsub
  1843. cursed_posts
  1844. MyHeroAcademia
  1845. Meme_colesium
  1846. timetravel
  1847. WordAvalanches
  1848. gravityfalls
  1849. u_Niggword69
  1850. ConfusedBoners
  1851. DonutOperator
  1852. u_DoxxingAngels
  1853. Jazz
  1854. percussion
  1855. WeirdSheep
  1856. BisexualTeens
  1857. Adulting
  1858. MensLib
  1859. NewDM
  1860. Paladins
  1861. CountOnceADay
  1862. TheOnionUnlimited
  1863. ComedyFlogging
  1864. FuckNestle
  1865. 8BitGang
  1866. FrankGang
  1867. ColtGang
  1868. yescompanionimbecil
  1869. ChurchOfMineta
  1870. YouFellForItFool
  1871. Super_Cube_Cavern
  1872. dynamikegang
  1873. ZoeIsYourHomie
  1874. u_PlusTrash7
  1875. ZaryaMains
  1876. SleepingSoulmates
  1877. JunkRatMains
  1878. Awww
  1879. RoadhogMains
  1880. fo76
  1881. MK11PremiumStore
  1882. MKMemes
  1883. KombatFashion
  1884. aliens
  1885. sixthworldproblems
  1886. Switch
  1887. thebindingofisaac
  1888. BattlefieldCosmetics
  1889. ww2
  1890. LaCasaDePapel
  1891. PSNFriends
  1892. edgydarkdankmemes
  1893. AssassinsCreedOdyssey
  1894. u_Francischelo
  1895. ww2memes
  1896. DrunkDrunkenPorn
  1897. submechanophobia
  1898. athiesm
  1899. awakened
  1900. Pics_of_your_uncle
  1901. nikerunclub
  1902. firstimpression
  1903. Kikpals
  1904. Ultraboost
  1905. Toyota
  1906. UrbanHell
  1907. avfc
  1908. 6thForm
  1909. BassGuitar
  1910. greenday
  1911. chemistry
  1912. TokyoGhoul
  1913. u_Hate_-_millenials
  1914. ChippyGaming
  1915. USNSCC
  1916. unsettling
  1917. navy
  1918. mkxmobile
  1919. notcrappydesign
  1920. u_rd741904
  1921. neverendinggifs
  1922. beta
  1923. StrangerThingsMemes
  1924. u_Mr_Wolf7
  1925. ThatsInsane
  1926. u_Ens-Causa-Sui
  1927. u_SnakesAndTanksOhMy
  1928. aquaponics
  1929. glossier
  1930. ImagineDragonsTeens
  1931. heyrolemodel
  1932. omarapollo
  1933. LANY
  1934. WhereInTheDisneyWorld
  1935. funnystories
  1936. SmallDeliMeats
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submitted by CaesarNaples2 to copypastapublishin [link] [comments]

Trump Didn’t Kill the Global Trade System. He Split It in Two.

This article is taken from the Wall Street Journal written about nine months ago and sits behind a a paywall, so I decided to copy and paste it here. This article explains Trump's policies toward global trade and what has actually happened so far. I think the article does a decent job of explaining the Trade War. While alot has happenedsince the article was written, I still think its relevant.
However, what is lacking in the article, like many articles on the trade war, is it doesn't really explain the history of US trade policy, the laws that the US administration is using to place tariffs on China and the official justification for the US President in enacting tariffs against China. In my analysis I will cover those points.

SUMMARY

When Trump entered the White House people feared he would dismantle the global system the US and its allies had built over the last 75 years, but he hasn't. He has realign into two systems. One between the US and its allies which looks similar to the one built since the 1980s with a few of quota and tariffs. As the article points out
Today, Korus and Nafta have been replaced by updated agreements(one not yet ratified) that look much like the originals. South Korea accepted quotas on steel. Mexico and Canada agreed to higher wages, North American content requirements and quotas for autos. Furthermore, the article points out Douglas Irwin, an economist and trade historian at Dartmouth College, calls these results the “status quo with Trumpian tweaks: a little more managed trade sprinkled about for favored industries. It’s not good, but it’s not the destruction of the system.” Mr. Trump’s actions so far affect only 12% of U.S. imports, according to Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. In 1984, 21% of imports were covered by similar restraints, many imposed by Mr. Reagan, such as on cars, steel, motorcycles and clothing. Protectionist instincts go so far in the US, there are strong lobby groups for both protectionist and freetrade in the US.
The second reflects a emerging rivalry between the US and China. Undo some of the integration that followed China accession to the WTO. Two questions 1) How far is the US willing to decouple with China 2) Can it persuade allies to join.
The second is going to be difficult because China's economic ties are greater than they were between the Soviets, and China isn't waging an ideological struggle. Trump lacks Reagan commitment to alliance and free trade. The status quo with China is crumbling Dan Sullivan, a Republican senator from Alaska, personifies these broader forces reshaping the U.S. approach to the world. When Mr. Xi visited the U.S. in 2015, Mr. Sullivan urged his colleagues to pay more attention to China’s rise. On the Senate floor, he quoted the political scientist Graham Allison: “War between the U.S. and China is more likely than recognized at the moment.” Last spring, Mr. Sullivan went to China and met officials including Vice President Wang Qishan. They seemed to think tensions with the U.S. will fade after Mr. Trump leaves the scene, Mr. Sullivan recalled. “I just said, ‘You are completely misreading this.’” The mistrust, he told them, is bipartisan, and will outlast Mr. Trump. both Bush II and Obama tried to change dialogue and engagement, but by the end of his term, Obama was questioning the approach. Trump has declared engagement. “We don’t like it when our allies steal our ideas either, but it’s a much less dangerous situation,” said Derek Scissors, a China expert at the American Enterprise Institute whose views align with the administration’s more hawkish officials. “We’re not worried about the war-fighting capability of Japan and Korea because they’re our friends.”
The article also points out unlike George Kennan in 1946 who made a case for containing the Soviet Union, the US hasn't explicitly made a case for containing the Soviets, Trump's administration hasn't, because as the the article explains its divided Michael Pillsbury a Hudson Institute scholar close to the Trump team, see 3 scenarios
Pillsbury thinks the third is most likely to happen, even though the administration hasn't said that it has adopted that policy. The US is stepping efforts to draw in other trading partners. The US, EU and Japan have launched a WTO effort to crack down on domestic subsidies and technology transfers requirement. US and Domestic concerns with prompted some countries to restrict Huawei. The US is also seeking to walloff China from other trade deals. However, there are risk with this strategy

ARTICLE

Trump Didn’t Kill the Global Trade System. He Split It in Two.

INTRODUCTION

My main criticism of this article is it tries like the vast majority of articles to fit US trade actions in the larger context of US geopolitical strategy. Even the author isn't certain "The first goes to the heart of Mr. Trump’s goal. If his aim is to hold back China’s advance, economists predict he will fail.". If you try to treat the trade "war" and US geopolitical strategy toward China as one, you will find yourself quickly frustrated and confused. If you treat them separately with their different set of stakeholders and histories, were they intersect with regards to China, but diverge. During the Cold War, trade policy toward the Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc was subordinated to geopolitical concerns. For Trump, the trade issues are more important than geopolitical strategy. His protectionist trade rhetoric has been fairly consistent since 1980s. In his administration, the top cabinet members holding economic portfolios, those of Commerce, Treasury and US Trade Representative are the same people he picked when he first took office. The Director of the Economic Council has changed hands once, its role isn't as important as the National Security Advisor. While State, Defense, CIA, Homeland Security, UN Ambassador, National Security Advisor have changed hands at least once. Only the Director of National Intelligence hasn't changed.
International Trade makes up 1/4 of the US economy, and like national security its primarily the responsibility of the Federal government. States in the US don't implement their own tariffs. If you add the impact of Treasury policy and how it relates to capital flows in and out of the US, the amounts easily exceed the size of the US economy. Furthermore, because of US Dollar role as the reserve currency and US control of over global system the impact of Treasury are global. Trade policy and investment flows runs through two federal departments Commerce and Treasury and for trade also USTR. Defense spending makes up 3.3% of GDP, and if you add in related homeland security its at most 4%. Why would anyone assume that these two realms be integrated let alone trade policy subordinate to whims of a national security bureaucracy in most instances? With North Korea or Iran, trade and investment subordinate themselves to national security, because to Treasury and Commerce bureaucrats and their affiliated interest groups, Iran and the DPRK are well, economic midgets, but China is a different matter.
The analysis will be divided into four sections. The first will be to provide a brief overview of US trade policy since 1914. The second section will discuss why the US is going after China on trade issues, and why the US has resorted using a bilateral approach as opposed to going through the WTO. The third section we will talk about how relations with China is hashed out in the US.
The reason why I submitted this article, because there aren't many post trying to explain US-China Trade War from a trade perspective. Here is a post titled "What is the Reasons for America's Trade War with China, and not one person mentioned Article 301 or China's WTO Commitments. You get numerous post saying that Huawei is at heart of the trade war. Its fine, but if you don't know what was inside the USTR Investigative report that lead to the tariffs. its like skipping dinner and only having dessert When the US President, Donald J Trump, says he wants to negotiate a better trade deal with other countries, and has been going on about for the last 35 years, longer than many of you have been alive, why do people think that the key issues with China aren't primarily about trade at the moment.

OVERVIEW OF THE UNITED STATES TRADE ORIENTATION

Before 1940s, the US could be categorized as a free market protectionist economy. For many this may seem like oxymoron, how can an economy be free market and protectionist? In 1913, government spending made up about 7.5% of US GDP, in the UK it was 13%, and for Germany 18% (Public Spending in the 20th Century A Global Perspective: Ludger Schuknecht and Vito Tanzi - 2000). UK had virtual zero tariffs, while for manufactured goods in France it was 20%, 13% Germany, 9% Belgium and 4% Netherlands. For raw materials and agricultural products, it was almost zero. In contrast, for the likes of United States, Russia and Japan it was 44%, 84% and 30% respectively. Even though in 1900 United States was an economic powerhouse along with Germany, manufactured exports only made up 30% of exports, and the US government saw tariffs as exclusively a domestic policy matter and didn't see tariffs as something to be negotiated with other nations. The US didn't have the large constituency to push the government for lower tariffs abroad for their exports like in Britain in the 1830-40s (Reluctant Partners: A History of Multilateral Trade Cooperation, 1850-2000).
The Underwood Tariffs Act of 1913 which legislated the income tax, dropped the tariffs to 1850 levels levels.Until 16th amendment was ratified in 1913 making income tax legal, all US federal revenue came from excise and tariffs. In contrast before 1914, about 50% of UK revenue came from income taxes. The reason for US reluctance to introduced income tax was ideological and the United State's relative weak government compared to those in Europe. After the First World War, the US introduced the Emergency Tariff Act of 1921, than the Fordney–McCumber Tariff of 1922 followed by a Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930. Contrary to popular opinion, the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930 had a small negative impact on the economy, since imports and exports played a small part of the US economy, and the tariffs were lower than the average that existed from 1850-1914.
Immediately after the Second World War, when the US economy was the only industrialized economy left standing, the economic focus was on rehabilitation and monetary stability. There was no grandiose and ideological design. Bretton Woods system linked the US dollar to gold to create monetary stability, and to avoid competitive devaluation and tariffs that plagued the world economy after Britain took itself off the gold in 1931. The US$ was the natural choice, because in 1944 2/3 of the world's gold was in the US. One reason why the Marshall Plan was created was to alleviate the chronic deficits Europeans countries had with the US between 1945-50. It was to rebuild their economies so they could start exports good to the US. Even before it was full implemented in 1959, it was already facing problems, the trade surpluses that the US was running in the 1940s, turned to deficits as European and Japanese economies recovered. By 1959, Federal Reserves foreign liabilities had already exceeded its gold reserves. There were fears of a run on the US gold supply and arbitrage. A secondary policy of the Bretton woods system was curbs on capital outflows to reduce speculation on currency pegs, and this had a negative impact on foreign investment until it was abandoned in 1971. It wasn't until the 1980s, where foreign investment recovered to levels prior to 1914. Factoring out the big spike in global oil prices as a result of the OPEC cartel, it most likely wasn't until the mid-1990s that exports as a % of GDP had reached 1914 levels.
Until the 1980s, the US record regarding free trade and markets was mediocre. The impetus to remove trade barriers in Europe after the Second World War was driven by the Europeans themselves. The EEC already had a custom union in 1968, Canada and the US have yet to even discuss implementing one. Even with Canada it took the US over 50 years to get a Free Trade Agreement. NAFTA was inspired by the success of the EEC. NAFTA was very much an elite driven project. If the Americans put the NAFTA to a referendum like the British did with the EEC in the seventies, it most likely wouldn't pass. People often look at segregation in the US South as a political issue, but it was economic issue as well. How could the US preach free trade, when it didn't have free trade in its own country. Segregation was a internal non-tariff barrier. In the first election after the end of the Cold War in 1992, Ross Perot' based most of independent run for the Presidency on opposition to NAFTA. He won 19% of the vote. Like Ross Perot before him, Donald Trump is not the exception in how America has handled tariffs since the founding of the Republic, but more the norm.
The embrace of free trade by the business and political elite can be attributed to two events. After the end of Bretton Woods in 1971, a strong vested interest in the US in the form of multinationals and Wall Street emerged advocating for removal of tariffs and more importantly the removal of restrictions on free flow of capital, whether direct foreign investment in portfolio investment. However, the political class embrace of free trade and capital only really took off after the collapse of the Soviet Union propelled by Cold War triumphalism.
As mentioned by the article, the US is reverting back to a pre-WTO relations with China. As Robert Lighthizer said in speech in 2000
I guess my prescription, really, is to move back to more of a negotiating kind of a settlement. Return to WTO and what it really was meant to be. Something where you have somebody make a decision but have it not be binding.
The US is using financial and legal instruments developed during the Cold War like its extradition treaties (with Canada and Europe), and Section 301. Here is a very good recent article about enforcement commitment that China will make.‘Painful’ enforcement ahead for China if trade war deal is reached with US insisting on unilateral terms
NOTE: It is very difficult to talk about US-China trade war without a basic knowledge of global economic history since 1914. What a lot of people do is politicize or subordinate the economic history to the political. Some commentators think US power was just handed to them after the Second World War, when the US was the only industrialized economy left standing. The dominant position of the US was temporary and in reality its like having 10 tonnes of Gold sitting in your house, it doesn't automatically translate to influence. The US from 1945-1989 was slowly and gradually build her influence in the non-Communist world. For example, US influence in Canada in the 1960s wasn't as strong as it is now. Only 50% of Canadian exports went to the US in 1960s vs 80% at the present moment.

BASIS OF THE US TRADE DISCUSSION WITH CHINA

According to preliminary agreement between China and the US based on unnamed sources in the Wall Street Journal article US, China close in on Trade Deal. In this article it divides the deal in two sections. The first aspects have largely to do with deficits and is political.
As part of a deal, China is pledging to help level the playing field, including speeding up the timetable for removing foreign-ownership limitations on car ventures and reducing tariffs on imported vehicles to below the current auto tariff of 15%. Beijing would also step up purchases of U.S. goods—a tactic designed to appeal to President Trump, who campaigned on closing the bilateral trade deficit with China. One of the sweeteners would be an $18 billion natural-gas purchase from Cheniere Energy Inc., people familiar with the transaction said.
The second part will involve the following.
  1. Commitment Regarding Industrial Policy
  2. Provisions to protect IP
  3. Mechanism which complaints by US companies can be addressed
  4. Bilateral meetings adjudicate disputes. If talks don't produce agreement than US can raise tariffs unilaterally
This grouping of conditions is similar to the points filled under the 301 investigation which serve the basis for initiating the tariffs. I have been reading some sources that say this discussion on this second group of broader issues could only be finalized later
The official justifications for placing the tariffs on Chinese goods is found under the March 2018 investigation submitted by the office of the President to Congress titled FINDINGS OF THE INVESTIGATION INTO CHINA’S ACTS, POLICIES, AND PRACTICES RELATED TO TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER, INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY, AND INNOVATION UNDER SECTION 301 OF THE TRADE ACT OF 1974. From this investigation the United States Trade Representative (USTR) place US Tariffs on Chinese goods as per Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Here is a press release by the USTR listing the reasons for placing tariffs, and the key section from the press release. Specifically, the Section 301 investigation revealed:
In the bigger context of trade relations between US and China, China is not honoring its WTO commitments, and the USTR issued its yearly report to Congress in early February about the status of China compliance with its WTO commitments. The points that served as a basis for applying Section 301, also deviate from her commitments as Clinton's Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky paving the way for a trade war. Barshefsky argues that China's back sliding was happening as early as 2006-07, and believes the trade war could have been avoided has those commitments been enforced by previous administrations.
I will provide a brief overview of WTO membership and China's process of getting into the WTO.
WTO members can be divided into two groups, first are countries that joined in 1995-97, and were members of GATT, than there are the second group that joined after 1997. China joined in 2001. There is an argument that when China joined in 2001, she faced more stringent conditions than other developing countries that joined before, because the vast majority of developing countries were members of GATT, and were admitted to the WTO based on that previous membership in GATT. Here is Brookings Institute article published in 2001 titled "Issues in China’s WTO Accession"
This question is all the more puzzling because the scope and depth of demands placed on entrants into the formal international trading system have increased substantially since the formal conclusion of the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations in 1994, which expanded the agenda considerably by covering many services, agriculture, intellectual property, and certain aspects of foreign direct investment. Since 1994, the international community has added agreements covering information technology, basic telecommunications services, and financial services. WTO membership now entails liberalization of a much broader range of domestic economic activity, including areas that traditionally have been regarded by most countries as among the most sensitive, than was required of countries entering the WTO’s predecessor organization the GATT.
The terms of China’s protocol of accession to the World Trade Organization reflect the developments just described and more. China’s market access commitments are much more far-reaching than those that governed the accession of countries only a decade ago. And, as a condition for membership, China was required to make protocol commitments that substantially exceed those made by any other member of the World Trade Organization, including those that have joined since 1995. The broader and deeper commitments China has made inevitably will entail substantial short-term economic costs.
What are the WTO commitments Barshefsky goes on about? When countries join the WTO, particularly those countries that weren't members of GATT and joined after 1997, they have to work toward fulfilling certain commitments. There are 4 key documents when countries make an accession to WTO membership, the working party report, the accession protocol paper, the goods schedule and service schedule.
In the working party report as part of the conclusion which specifies the commitment of each member country what they will do in areas that aren't compliant with WTO regulations on the date they joined. The problem there is no good enforcement mechanism for other members to force China to comply with these commitments. And WTO punishments are weak.
Here is the commitment paragraph for China
"The Working Party took note of the explanations and statements of China concerning its foreign trade regime, as reflected in this Report. The Working Party took note of the commitments given by China in relation to certain specific matters which are reproduced in paragraphs 18-19, 22-23, 35-36, 40, 42, 46-47, 49, 60, 62, 64, 68, 70, 73, 75, 78-79, 83-84, 86, 91-93, 96, 100-103, 107, 111, 115-117, 119-120, 122-123, 126-132, 136, 138, 140, 143, 145, 146, 148, 152, 154, 157, 162, 165, 167-168, 170-174, 177-178, 180, 182, 184-185, 187, 190-197, 199-200, 203-207, 210, 212-213, 215, 217, 222-223, 225, 227-228, 231-235, 238, 240-242, 252, 256, 259, 263, 265, 270, 275, 284, 286, 288, 291, 292, 296, 299, 302, 304-305, 307-310, 312-318, 320, 322, 331-334, 336, 339 and 341 of this Report and noted that these commitments are incorporated in paragraph 1.2 of the Draft Protocol. "
This is a tool by the WTO that list all the WTO commitment of each country in the working paper. In the goods and service schedule they have commitments for particular sectors. Here is the a press release by the WTO in September 2001, after successfully concluding talks for accession, and brief summary of key areas in which China hasn't fulfilled her commitments. Most of the commitments made by China were made to address its legacy as a non-market economy and involvement of state owned enterprises. In my opinion, I think the US government and investors grew increasingly frustrated with China, after 2007 not just because of China's back sliding, but relative to other countries who joined after 1997 like Vietnam, another non-market Leninist dictatorship. When comparing China's commitments to the WTO its best to compare her progress with those that joined after 1997, which were mostly ex-Soviet Republics.
NOTE: The Chinese media have for two decades compared any time the US has talked about China's currency manipulation or any other issue as a pretext for imposing tariffs on China to the Plaza Accords. I am very sure people will raise it here. My criticism of this view is fourfold. First, the US targeted not just Japan, but France, Britain and the UK as well. Secondly, the causes of the Japan lost decade were due largely to internal factors. Thirdly, Japan, UK, Britain and France in the 1980s, the Yuan isn't undervalued today. Lastly, in the USTR investigation, its China's practices that are the concern, not so much the trade deficit.

REASONS FOR TRUMPS UNILATERAL APPROACH

I feel that people shouldn't dismiss Trump's unilateral approach toward China for several reasons.
  1. The multilateral approach won't work in many issues such as the trade deficit, commercial espionage and intellectual property, because US and her allies have different interest with regard to these issues. Germany and Japan and trade surpluses with China, while the US runs a deficit. In order to reach a consensus means the West has to compromise among themselves, and the end result if the type of toothless resolutions you commonly find in ASEAN regarding the SCS. Does America want to "compromise" its interest to appease a politician like Justin Trudeau? Not to mention opposition from domestic interest. TPP was opposed by both Clinton and Trump during the election.
  2. You can't launch a geopolitical front against China using a newly formed trade block like the TPP. Some of the existing TPP members are in economic groups with China, like Malaysia and Australia.
  3. China has joined a multitude of international bodies, and at least in trade, these bodies haven't changed its behavior.
  4. Dealing with China, its a no win situation whether you use a tough multilateral / unilateral approach. If the US endorse a tough unilateral approach gives the impression that the US is acting like the British during the Opium War. If you take a concerted Western approach you are accused of acting like the 8 Powers Alliance in 1900.
  5. Trump was elected to deal with China which he and his supporters believe was responsible for the loss of millions manufacturing jobs when China joined the WTO in 2001. It is estimate the US lost 6 Million jobs, about 1/4 of US manufacturing Jobs. This has been subsequently advanced by some economists. The ball got rolling when Bill Clinton decided to grant China Most Favored Nation status in 1999, just a decade after Tiananmen.
  6. China hasn't dealt with issues like IP protection, market access, subsidies to state own companies and state funded industrial spying.
To his credit, Trump has said his aim was not to overthrow authoritarian governments, and that even applies to the likes of Iran. The Arab spring scared Russia and China, because the US for a brief moment placed the spread of democracy over its security interest.

UNDERSTANDING HOW THE US MAKES DECISIONS REGARDING CHINA

At this moment, China or the trade war isn't an area of great concern for the American public, among international issues it ranks lower than international terrorism, North Korea and Iran's nuclear program.
According to the survey, 39 percent of the country views China’s growing power as a “critical threat” to Americans. That ranked it only eighth among 12 potential threats listed and placed China well behind the perceived threats from international terrorism (66 percent), North Korea’s nuclear program (59 percent) and Iran’s nuclear program (52 percent). It’s also considerably lower than when the same question was asked during the 1990s, when more than half of those polled listed China as a critical threat. That broadly tracks with a recent poll from the Pew Research Center that found concern about U.S.-China economic issues had decreased since 2012.
In looking at how US conducts relations foreign policy with China, we should look at it from the three areas of most concern - economic, national security and ideology. Each sphere has their interest groups, and sometimes groups can occupy two spheres at once. Security experts are concerned with some aspects of China's economic actions like IP theft and industrial policy (China 2025), because they are related to security. In these sphere there are your hawks and dove. And each sphere is dominated by certain interest groups. That is why US policy toward China can often appear contradictory. You have Trump want to reduce the trade deficit, but security experts advocating for restrictions on dual use technology who are buttressed by people who want export restrictions on China, as a way of getting market access.
Right now the economic concerns are most dominant, and the hawks seem to dominate. The economic hawks traditionally have been domestic manufacturing companies and economic nationalist. In reality the hawks aren't dominant, but the groups like US Companies with large investment in China and Wall Street are no longer defending China, and some have turned hawkish against China. These US companies are the main conduit in which China's lobby Congress, since China only spends 50% of what Taiwan spends lobbying Congress.
THE ANGLO SAXON WORLD AND CHINA
I don't think many Chinese even those that speak English, have a good understanding Anglo-Saxon society mindset. Anglo Saxons countries, whether US, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Ireland are commerce driven society governed by sanctity of contracts. The English great philosophical contributions to Western philosophy have primarily to do with economics and politics like Adam Smith, John Locke, David Hume and Thomas Hobbes. This contrast with the French and Germans. Politics in the UK and to a lesser extent the US, is centered around economics, while in Mainland Europe its religion. When the Americans revolted against the British Empire in 1776, the initial source of the grievances were taxes.
Outside of East Asia, the rest of the World's relationship with China was largely commercial, and for United States, being an Anglosaxon country, even more so. In Southeast Asia, Chinese aren't known for high culture, but for trade and commerce. Outside Vietnam, most of Chinese loans words in Southeast Asian languages involve either food or money. The influence is akin to Yiddish in English.
Some people point to the Mao and Nixon meeting as great strategic breakthrough and symbol of what great power politics should look like. The reality is that the Mao-Nixon meeting was an anomaly in the long history of relations with China and the West. Much of China-Western relations over the last 500 years was conducted by multitudes of nameless Chinese and Western traders. The period from 1949-1979 was the only period were strategic concerns triumphed trade, because China had little to offer except instability and revolution. Even in this period, China's attempt to spread revolution in Southeast Asia was a threat to Western investments and corporate interest in the region. During the nadir of both the Qing Dynasty and Republican period, China was still engaged in its traditional commercial role. Throughout much of history of their relations with China, the goals of Britain and the United States were primarily economic,
IMAGINE JUST 10% OF CHINA BOUGHT MY PRODUCT
From the beginning, the allure of China to Western businesses and traders has been its sheer size I. One of the points that the USTR mentions is lack of market access for US companies operating in China, while Chinese companies face much less restrictions operating in the US.
This is supported by remarks by Henry Paulson and Charlene Barshefsky. As Paulson remarked
Trade with China has hurt some American workers. And they have expressed their grievances at the ballot box.
So while many attribute this shift to the Trump Administration, I do not. What we are now seeing will likely endure for some time within the American policy establishment. China is viewed—by a growing consensus—not just as a strategic challenge to the United States but as a country whose rise has come at America’s expense. In this environment, it would be helpful if the US-China relationship had more advocates. That it does not reflects another failure:
In large part because China has been slow to open its economy since it joined the WTO, the American business community has turned from advocate to skeptic and even opponent of past US policies toward China. American business doesn’t want a tariff war but it does want a more aggressive approach from our government. How can it be that those who know China best, work there, do business there, make money there, and have advocated for productive relations in the past, are among those now arguing for more confrontation? The answer lies in the story of stalled competition policy, and the slow pace of opening, over nearly two decades. This has discouraged and fragmented the American business community. And it has reinforced the negative attitudinal shift among our political and expert classes. In short, even though many American businesses continue to prosper in China, a growing number of firms have given up hope that the playing field will ever be level. Some have accepted the Faustian bargain of maximizing today’s earnings per share while operating under restrictions that jeopardize their future competitiveness. But that doesn’t mean they’re happy about it. Nor does it mean they aren’t acutely aware of the risks — or thinking harder than ever before about how to diversify their risks away from, and beyond, China.
What is interesting about Paulson's speech is he spend only one sentence about displaced US workers, and a whole paragraph about US business operating in China. While Kissinger writes books about China, how much does he contribute to both Democrats and the Republicans during the election cycle? China is increasingly makING it more difficult for US companies operating and those exporting products to China.

CONTINUED

submitted by weilim to IntlScholars [link] [comments]

New Beginner info / FAQ section for futures

I feel like with all the cheating and drama going on with spot fx we should at the very least have a dedicated section on the right for guidance on futures contracts.
The shady Cypriot brokers and ones on other random islands are lying and selling a dream so let's take a look at the reality of spot fx...
Currency markets are the most liquid and active markets of any sector. However, there is also a great deal of misinformation, slick advertising, and even outright deception regarding this $2 Trillion Dollar a Day marketplace. For starters, a large percentage of that $2 Trillion is traded through what is referred to as the interbank market. The interbank market is the top-level foreign exchange market where banks exchange different currencies. This trading between banks is not accessible to retail traders and is estimated to account for the vast majority of the Trillion Dollar liquidity factor that attracts so many retail traders in the first place.
Here are a few of the reasons to trade futures:
-Level playing field for all participants
-Deep liquidity on major currency contracts
-Safety and security of central clearing
If your Forex brokerage firm uses a dealing desk, your buy and sell orders never actually reach the true Forex market. In other words, you do not have access to the inter-bank market. Instead you are buying and selling at prices set, and potentially manipulated by the dealing desk. This is known as conflict of interest.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange guarantees each transaction. Futures contracts are legally binding! This means that if you go long a currency futures contract and your speculation was correct, you will walk away from the trade with your profit even if the person that took the other side of the trade fails to pay. This is what we call counterparty risk.
Take a moment, have a break and take a look at all the horror stories on forex factory, for instance.
Whether you are a large institution or an individual trader, everyone is on equal footing when it comes to pricing currency futures. EVERYBODY gets the same price regardless of who you are (individual or mega bank). Best price wins, it is as simple as that — something that is not always the case in the fragmented OTC FX market. The spreads are also very tight if you trade liquid future contracts.
Spot fx brokers also control their price feeds. They can widen the spreads as they see fit and they can really screw you over if they want to. Believe me when I say that most fx brokers don't want you to win! Even the ones that claim to have liquidity providers... Those are nothing but price feeds. Quotes. Nothing more....
And Forex firms offering a "fixed" 3-5 point spread may not be charging traders commission outright, or even in a form that shows up on an account statement, but there are significant costs built into the synthetic market that they provide to you.
No middle man, no market maker. Yes, Forex is an electronic market, but your order still ends up on a "dealing desk" where a human handles your order. Or an algorithm... Basically, a Market Maker. He could make you or break you. With E-mini Futures you have a level playing field. You trade on a centralised and CFTC regulated exchange. Whether you're Goldman Sachs or Joe from Idaho, you get equal treatment!
If you're worried about Liquidity - 1.5-3m contracts trade hands everyday on the S&P 500 E-mini Futures Contract. If you want in or out of a position, there is almost always someone waiting and willing to take the other side of your trade (24/5) just 1 tick away. This simply isn't true for all Forex Pairs.
Low Cost of Doing Business - Commissions on a self directed SP500 E-mini Trade (ES) should be no more than $3.00 per side or $6.00 per round turn. While many Forex Brokers tout "Zero Commission", we all know there's no free lunch. Forex Brokers don't need to charge a commission because they make money off of the bid/ask spread "they create" and then take the other side of your trade. Run the numbers... for every $100 in profits or loss, you will spend a larger % in "cost of doing business" in the Forex Market than you will in the S&P E-mini Market. Don't take my word for it... go take some real trades and you'll quickly see the truth.
Zero Interest - If you you trade the ES intraday, expect to put up $500 per contract as a "bond" for lack of a better term. That's it. No hidden cost. Forex however, has a "cost of carry" associated which means interest may be charged or paid on positions taken.
Fiduciary Responsibility - Even regulated US Forex firms are not required to segregate customer funds. If a regulated firm goes under, you do not have the protection of the CFTC and the NFA as you do in the Futures Markets.
Turn ON The Volume Please - In Forex, since there is no centralised exchange, it is impossible to get a true read on volume. Not so with the S&P 500 "ES" E-mini. Simply turn on the volume indicator and you have exact numbers for Volume Analysis. GS and CITI have huge research departments with hundreds of employees, but they know nothing about volume that you don't know via a free indicator on your direct access trading platform. Just one more example of the level playing field we constantly speak of.
Centralised Clearing - All trades are cleared via the CME - Chicago Mercantile Exchange. All trades, including time and sales, are public information and posted in real time.
Edit: By the way, if you're worried about discrepancies, currency futures charts look almost exactly the same as their spot fx siblings! So you can easily apply your current strategy to this market, too!
A great example would be "M6E" vs "EUUSD"
SO GUYS, LET'S ACCEPT REALITY AND LET'S DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT. DO YOU AGREE?
Source: cfrn.net
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FOREX 2 Direct, Indirect Quotes Investing Basics: Futures - YouTube New Micro Futures - Say Goodbye to Forex? - YouTube FRM: How to read a spot foreign exchange (FX) rate forex off quotes Key concepts: currencies, quotes, spread The pros and cons of trading futures - YouTube

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FOREX 2 Direct, Indirect Quotes

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